983
FXUS61 KGYX 141827
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
127 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
CLEAR TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK, SO DROUGHT AND FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHER PRIORITY. GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
120PM UPDATE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
LOW RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S HAVE DEVELOPED IN
SOUTHERN NH AND FAR SOUTHERN ME OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
LUCKILY WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT TODAY, BUT THIS CUMULATIVE DRYING
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHEN WINDS DO INCREASE.
10AM UPDATE...FULL SUN THIS MORNING, BUT THE COOL AIRMASS
PREVAILS AS TEMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH
NOON. OPTED TO EXPAND SCA INTO PENOBSCOT BAY AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO FUNNEL AND GUST TO AROUND 25 KT THERE. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO ADD A BIT OF TIDE ANOMALY, BUT THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL
BE LOWER. ITEMS TO WATCH TODAY WILL BE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS, AS
WELL AS HOW LIGHT PRECIP/WINDS PROGRESS FRIDAY.
620AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY...BUT WILL
LIMIT DEEP MIXING AND RESULT IN ANOTHER CHILLY DAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S DURING THE DAY AFTER A VERY COLD
START. DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER THERE WILL BE SOME HAZARDS
TO PAY ATTENTION TO TODAY.
ONE IS HIGH TIDE AROUND 9 AM THIS MORNING. ALREADY APPROACHING
THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THE MONTH...WE ARE STILL
RUNNING A STORM SURGE OR RESIDUAL TIDE ANOMALY AROUND 1 FT. THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR WATER LEVELS TO APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT
HIGH TIDE. I HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE WATER
LEVELS WITH LIMITED WAVE ACTION MITIGATING MORE WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS.
THEN DURING THE DAY AS WE GO THRU THE DEEPEST MIXING RH VALUES
WILL DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT PARTS OF THE MIDCOAST MAY SEE GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. WITH
DRY LEAVES ON THE GROUND THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEE AN UPTICK IN
FIRE STARTS...EVEN WITH THE COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME.
AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE IS PRETTY BEARISH ON PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVELS ARE ABLE TO SATURATE BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY. I HAD A
HARD TIME JUSTIFYING MORE THAN CHANCE POP FRI...WHICH LIMITS THE
THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIP. THERE REMAINS A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
SOME FREEZING PRECIP...GIVEN COLD/DRY LOW LEVELS AND SOME IFFY
SATURATION AT TIMES ALOFT. IT COULD BE SET UP FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE EVEN IF FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS DO NOT OCCUR. ONCE AGAIN
WE WILL NEED BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION TO REALLY SEE THE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP SCENARIO INCREASE.
WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TIDES THRU
FRI. ANY CONTINUED SURGE RUNNING AROUND 1 FT WILL LIKELY BRING
WATER LEVELS JUST OVER FLOOD STAGE FRI. AS WELL AS FIRE WEATHER
WITH WINDS INCREASING FRI...THOUGH RH VALUES MAY CREEP UP JUST A
BIT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OVERVIEW: DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS: LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING NW INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DRAPE A DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
NE TO SW THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOME POPS CONTINUE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL ME INTO
WESTERN ME. KEPT CHANCES SLIGHT TO CHANCE AS GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY
LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. QPF CONTINUES TO SHOW NO REAL WASHOUT
HERE, AND THE GREATER CONCERN MAY BE SPOTS OF FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RAIN CHANCES RETREAT SATURDAY
AS WARMING TREND CONTINUES.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY AS A QUICK MOVING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. THIS AGAIN APPEARS TO BE LIGHT
ON QPF.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU FRI. SOME
MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA ARE POSSIBLE FRI AS
COASTAL STORM MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. OVERALL I ANTICIPATE
IT WILL LARGELY REMAIN DRY...THOUGH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
CIGS COULD STILL RESULT WITHOUT PRECIP. SURFACE GUSTS FRI MAY
APPROACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES.
LONG TERM...MVFR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO HIE INTO SATURDAY. SOME -SHRA MAY ACCOMPANY THIS DECK
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS THIS MORNING. SOME CONTINUED WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY
BEFORE OCEAN STORM RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME. THAT WILL
ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. I HAVE EXTENDED
THE SCA THRU FRI...BUT ADDITIONAL EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO LOW PRESSURE TO
THE NE WILL PROMOTE GUSTS AROUND 25 KT ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, APPROACHING 5 FT TOWARDS 25 NM OUT.
FIRE WEATHER
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL TODAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE TEENS AND
20 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE LIGHT WINDS...BUT ACROSS THE MIDCOAST SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT FIRE STARTS MAY OCCUR MORE
READILY...ESPECIALLY WITH DRY LEAVES ON THE GROUND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CAME IN JUST SHY OF 12FT AT THE
PORTLAND TIDE GAGE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL/LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CORNWELL
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