395
FXUS61 KGYX 151539
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1039 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER COOL AND
VERY DRY AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT MUCH END IN SIGHT WHEN IT COMES
TO DRY WEATHER, WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. EXPANDING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS TO WATCH. GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1030AM UPDATE...INCOMING CLOUD DECK ACROSS EASTERN ME IS
SUFFERING THE EFFECTS OF THE DRIER AIR MASS TO THE SW AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO NUDGE INTO WESTERN ME. AS A RESULT, THERE ARE MORE
GAPS IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND THIS IS ALLOWING DAYTIME HEATING TO
BOTH WARM SURFACE TEMPS AND KICK UP MIXING EARLY. HAVE ADJUSTED
FOR THIS BY INCREASING HIGHS FOR THE DAY AS WELL AS BUMPING UP
WINDS/GUSTS FOR WESTERN ME. HIGHER TERRAIN AND RIDGES COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS
MUCH ON TRACK FOR POINTS FURTHER SOUTH.
640AM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
WILL TRY AND REBOUND TO NEAR 50 THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH AND SOUTHWESTERN ME...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
WILL EAT AWAY AT THE PRECIP DRIFTING INTO DOWNEAST ME FROM A
RETROGRADING LOW PRESSURE...AND POP THRU THE KENNEBEC RIVER
VALLEY INTO PENOBSCOT BAY REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES TEMPS SHOULD HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY TO
KEEP THINGS RAIN EXCEPT FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
WESTERN ME MTNS.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND FIRE WEATHER. SEE THE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING AND FIRE
WEATHER SECTIONS BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
WE LOSE THE SURFACE RIDGING TONIGHT THAT HAS BEEN SO FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. IT WILL STILL
BE COOLER THAN RECENT WEATHER...BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SOME LINGERING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT MAINLY IN THE MTNS AND BECOMING MORE
UPSLOPE FORCED WITH TIME.
AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE SAT. SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED...BUT DEWPOINTS ALSO CREEP UP AND RH WITH THEM.
WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTIER HOWEVER...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
MIN RH VALUES CLOSELY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES REMAIN HIGH AS WELL...AND MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET. A LOW OVER NOVA
SCOTIA BRINGS THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL MAINE AS IT
RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THE RETROGRADING LOW WILL
ALLOW A NORTHERLY WIND TO DEVELOP, BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN ADDITION TO CAA SHOULD MAKE FOR COLDER
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING COMPARED TO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHER SEAS AND
HIGH ASTROTIDES MAY BRING SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE
ON SATURDAY.
A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM CANADA ON MONDAY,
ALLOWING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MORE ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS DOWNSLOPING DRIES OUT
THE ATMOSPHERE IN THESE AREAS.
A RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY, MAINTAINING ITSELF
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK; TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RUN ABOVE
AVERAGE. GRADUALLY, THE JET STREAM AMPLIFIES INTO A BLOCKING PATTERN
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES NORTHWARD. THIS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS STACKED ONTO A SURFACE LOW, ALLOWING THE SURFACE
LOW TO DISSIPATE AND OCCLUDE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAKES A SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK, CAUSING A LOW TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE DYING COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MEASURABLE AND MUCH-NEEDED PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE BLOCKING
PATTERN, AND DETAILS WILL RELY ON WHERE EXACTLY THE NEW SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU SAT. NORTHERLY SURFACE
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KT POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
ME...INCLUDING AUG AND RKD. MVFR CIGS WILL TRY AND SNEAK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE
FALLING APART AS IT GETS CLOSER. I DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT
ENCROACHING ON ANY TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...WITH THE ONLY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN ME MTNS.
LONG TERM...VFR IS EXPECTED SUN. UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES ON
MONDAY, WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. VFR AND CLEARER
SKIES LIKELY RETURN TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY, WITH LOW OVERCAST SKIES REINFORCING MVFR CIGS NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONTINUES THRU TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THRU SAT
AND AN EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY EXCEED SCA SUNDAY. SEAS OF 2-3
FEET ARE EXPECTED IN CASCO/PENOBSCOT BAYS WITH 4- 6 FOOT SEAS IN
THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KTS, POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO 25KTS OVER OPEN
WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS IMPROVE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY...CENTERED MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF A PORTLAND TO FRYEBURG LINE. MIN RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN THIS AREA. THE MORE
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THIS
AREA...BUT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER NEARLY TWO DAYS NOW OF POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY OF FUELS HAS BEEN OBSERVED. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO START THE DAY QUITE DRY AND WITH THE FORECAST
GETTING DRIER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS
THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NH. GRADUAL RH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
CONSISTENT STORM SURGE PATTERN CONTINUES BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW
TIDES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL TIDE CYCLES. THIS MORNING'S TIDE
CYCLE PEAKED RIGHT AROUND MINOR FLOOD STAGE. SAT MORNING WILL
SEE ANOTHER VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...AND IF SURGE PATTERNS
CONTINUE ANOTHER ADVISORY OR STATEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ023-
024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ014.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ023>025.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
154.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL/LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...PALMER
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