007
FXUS61 KGYX 160322
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1022 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE, A DRY AIRMASS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TOMORROW. ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY MORE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL ARRIVING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
1020 PM UPDATE...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ME WHERE WINDS AND
CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE GOING FORECAST.
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS
HOUR OTHER THAN TO UPDATE WINDS, CLOUDS, AND TEMPERATURES BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUSLY...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO
SETTLE WHILE SPREADING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MAINE. THESE
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS
RESPONSIBLE FOR PROMPTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, BUT PRECIP CHANCES
HAVE DWINDLED TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN NH TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BECAUSE NORTHERLY CAA AT THE SURFACE
CONTINUES BENEATH WARMER AIR ALOFT, ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAY FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. TOTAL
QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, AND CURRENT PRECIP PROBS ARE STILL
TOO LOW TO WARRANT A HEADLINE. AT THE MOST, A SPS MAY BE NEEDED
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD SFC TEMPS BE SUPPORTIVE.
WITH A BREEZE CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AMID THE BROAD WIND FIELD AND
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES, LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE MILD THAN LAST IN
THE MID 30S FOR COAST AND INTERIOR, AND MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NH.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NH AND FAR WESTERN ME
SATURDAY MORNING. WARMING TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF
CONTINUING FREEZING PRECIP, FAVORING RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND PULL NORTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FOCUS FOR THE DAY WILL AGAIN BE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE A
MORE BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL HAVE RECOVERED DUE
TO INVADING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ALOFT. OVERALL LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE CLOSER VS. THURS/FRI. GUSTS TO 20
OR 25 MPH WILL BE MORE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE CWA, BUT AREA
WHERE LOW RHS COMES INTO PLAY WILL BE MUCH SMALLER AREA, MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NH.
BREEZE CONTINUES SAT NIGHT HELPING TO KEEP AREA FROM BECOMING
DECOUPLED UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDINESS. DID LOWER TEMPS A BIT
ACROSS SW NH GIVEN THE CLEARER SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY FALL INTO
THE LOWER 30S TO AROUND 30 OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SUNDAY'S FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND QUIET DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES
SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY, AS A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. THE
BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
AFTERWARDS, A RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR A MID-WEEK
FEATURING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AS THIS RIDGE PRESIDES OVER THE EASTERN US, IT'S UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAM COLLIDES WITH A JET STREAK FROM AN INCOMING TROUGH. THIS
INTERACTION MAY CREATE JET DIVERGENCE, ALLOWING FOR A LOW TO FORM
AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THIS LOW ARRIVES IN NEW ENGLAND ROUGHLY IN
THE 22ND HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON PRECISE STORM TRACK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH, BUT GEFS AND ENS PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 15-25% CHANCE OF
SEEING OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE REGION FROM 7AM
THURSDAY - 7AM FRIDAY.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR. MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT RA OR PERHAPS
FZRA POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT WILL DEPEND ON IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH. GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY 15 TO 25
KT, WITH LESS GUST FACTOR INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
LONG TERM...
VFR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES ON
MONDAY, WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. VFR AND CLEARER
SKIES LIKELY RETURN TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY,
WITH LOW OVERCAST SKIES REINFORCING MVFR CIGS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MORE PROLONGED PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE NEXT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS A LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONTINUES TONIGHT AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.
BROAD LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY. WAVES WILL BE HIGHEST OFFSHORE, 3 TO 4 FT.
LONG TERM...
SEAS OF 2-5FT AND NW WINDS AT 20-25KTS LIKELY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS WIND SLACKENS TO
10-18KTS. SEAS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND PEAK MONDAY
MORNING, WITH NW WINDS AT 5-10KTS AND 2-3FT SEAS TO START THE DAY.
CONDITIONS WORSEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY REACH SCA THRESHOLDS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
SEAS UP TO 3-5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR CRITICAL IN SOUTHERN
NH SATURDAY. AREA-WIDE, WINDS WILL BE MORE GUSTY SATURDAY 25 TO
30 MPH. LOW RH VALUES RETREAT SOUTHWARD, WITH VALUES SUB 30
PERCENT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. THIS AREA IS WHERE MAIN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CONTINUED RECOVERY SUNDAY SHOULD LOWER CONCERNS FOR REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, BUT OFFSHORE
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL SURGE FACTOR. WHILE A
COUPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES WILL REACH ACTION STAGE THROUGH SUNDAY,
MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NHZ024-025.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
154.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...PALMER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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