646
FXUS61 KGYX 161128
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
628 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
ON THE EDGES OF AN OCEAN STORM THE CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. ALSO
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH A
RESIDUAL STORM SURGE THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF MINOR
FLOODING. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY MORE MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION ARRIVING BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR LOCAL WEATHER BUT IS STILL
STRUGGLING TO SEND PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL IT
WILL BE A MILD START TO THE DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
MIXING IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH DEEPER THAN IT ALREADY IS.
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 50S.
MORE PRESSING WILL BE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE SOME
MINOR IMPROVEMENTS TO MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN ME...MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. WINDS WILL BE GUSTIER...AND FUELS HAVE NOT
RECOVERED IN SEVERAL NIGHTS NOW. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH...AND FOR MORE INFO SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
IN ADDITION STORM SURGE CONTINUES TO RUN BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE
FOOT. ANTICIPATED PATTERN OF SURGE FALLING TO NEAR A HALF FOOT
BY HIGH TIDE WILL STILL RESULT IN WATER LEVELS NEAR FLOOD
STAGE...SO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. SEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUN. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY
WARMER...MORE MOISTURE...AND LESS WIND WILL ALLEVIATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SOMEWHAT SUN. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
LINGERING STORM SURGE AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY, AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. AFTERWARDS, A RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR A MID-WEEK FEATURING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AS THIS RIDGE PRESIDES OVER THE EASTERN US, IT'S UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAM COLLIDES WITH A JET STREAK FROM AN INCOMING TROUGH. THIS
INTERACTION MAY CREATE JET DIVERGENCE, ALLOWING FOR A LOW TO FORM
AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THIS LOW ARRIVES IN NEW ENGLAND ROUGHLY IN
THE 2ND HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON PRECISE STORM TRACK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH, BUT GEFS AND ENS PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 15-25% CHANCE OF
SEEING OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE REGION FROM 7AM
THURSDAY - 7AM FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SUN. SOME
LOCAL MVFR CIGS MAY DRIFT INTO PARTS OF THE KENNEBEC RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE MTNS. THOSE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
LARGELY AVOID TAF SITES...BUT HIE MAY BRIEFLY SEE THAT MVFR
DECK. NORTHWEST SURFACE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
WITH WINDS INTO SUN.
LONG TERM...
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES ON MONDAY, WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. VFR AND CLEARER SKIES LIKELY RETURN TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY, WITH LOW OVERCAST
SKIES REINFORCING MVFR CIGS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. MORE
PROLONGED PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU
TONIGHT. I HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ALL OF THE OUTER WATERS
THRU THAT TIME.
LONG TERM...
SEAS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND PEAK MONDAY MORNING,
WITH NW WINDS AT 5-10KTS AND 2-3FT SEAS TO START THE DAY.
CONDITIONS WORSEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY REACH SCA THRESHOLDS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
SEAS UP TO 3-5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR CRITICAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTIER
TODAY EVEN THOUGH MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL SEE RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20S. IT
HAS ALSO BEEN SEVERAL NIGHTS OF POOR FUEL RECOVERY THAT WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE FIRE DANGER. LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CONTINUED RECOVERY SUNDAY SHOULD LOWER CONCERNS FOR REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE. DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW...STORM
SURGE IS STILL HOVER BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE FOOT. IF TRENDS
CONTINUE THE SURGE SHOULD FALL TO AT OR JUST BELOW A HALF FOOT
BY HIGH TIDE...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT WATER LEVELS
JUST OVER FLOOD STAGE. I HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
GIVEN THAT WAVE ACTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE
SIGNIFICANTLY TO IMPACTS. IF SURGE CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK SEVERAL TIDE CYCLES REACHING ACTION STAGE ARE POSSIBLE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NHZ014.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ024-025.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...PALMER
AVIATION...LEGRO/PALMER
MARINE...LEGRO/PALMER
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