062
FXUS61 KGYX 170337
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1037 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST PUSHES THE COASTAL STORM TO THE EAST. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL STORM
SURGE THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF MINOR FLOODING.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
A SYSTEM LATE WEEK COULD PRODUCE SOME DECENT RAINFALL, WHICH
COULD HELP OUT THE DRY CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
1030 PM UPDATE...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED
ON AREAS THAT ARE RADIATING AND THOSE THAT ARE NOT AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
655 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN
TO DROP OUT OUR TWO SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES FROM THE SCA.
PREVIOUSLY...
LOW PRESSURE STALLED ACROSS THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
CONTINUES TO BRING A STEADY AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER HAS WORKED ITS WAY
INTO MAINE TODAY, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK BACK IN ALOFT. UPSLOPE CLOUDS NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS LINGER OVERNIGHT, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AND
BECOME MORE BROKEN IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A BREEZE CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN MOST PLACES,
PREVENTING DECOUPLING AND KEEPING LOWS WARMER THAN THEY WOULD
OTHERWISE BE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINDS TO GO CALM TONIGHT IS
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, WHERE LOWS STAND THE BEST
CHANCE TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S THROUGH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
ELSEWHERE, UPPER 20S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS, AS WELL AS IN THE WAKE OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FROM
FRYEBURG TO SANFORD. LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TOMORROW, BUT WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE AS THE LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS TOWARD THE EAST. AN AXIS
OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PROGRESSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAYTIME, ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS THEN BEGIN TO ARRIVE INTO WESTERN
AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES ALOFT.
HIGHS OVERALL LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH, TO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TOMORROW AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES, BUT GRADUALLY LOSES STEAM AND MOSTLY WASHES OUT
BEFORE REACHING NEW ENGLAND. EVEN SO, A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY MORNING. THESE WOULD REMAIN LIGHT IF THEY DO MANAGE TO
HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH WESTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE ONLY REAL
SIGN OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS A LIMIT ON
FALLING TEMPERATURES, WITH TEMPS LIKELY DOING MOST OF THEIR
COOLING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE 500 MB PATTERN ACROSS NOAM, ALREADY SHOWING A BLOCKING
TREND, BECOMES EVEN MORE BLOCKY AS WE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY THIS WILL KEEP US MOSTLY DRY THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK
BEFORE WE GET INTO A LOCALIZED OMEGA AND REX BLOCK COMBINED BY
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY WE WILL BE DRY WITH JUST
A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE MTNS. IT’LL BE MILD THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH SFC TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT +10 F. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THAT
DOUBLE BLOCK SETS UP AND PUTS UNDER A CLOSED LOW SO THE THREAT
PF SOME PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST FOR THU-FRI.
MONDAY LOOKS MILD AND RALLY PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MOST OF THE CLOUDS IN THE MTNS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S IN THE MTNS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE S, WITH
LOWS MON NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 30S. THE SHOWERS IN THE MTNS MAY
RAMP UP A BIT MONDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD BE RAIN EXCEPT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHILE S OF THE MTNS LOOK TO BE DRY MON NIGHT.
AS WE GET INTO SOME RIDGING ALOFT ON TUE AND WED, THEY BOTH LOOK
DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
SUNNIER THAN WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH MAY END UP WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN IN THE MTNS BOTH DAYS.
FOR THU-FRI /AND PERHAPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND/ WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF 500 MB CLOSED LOW WHICH TRACKS OUT OF THE OH VLY
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST Y FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING IN AN INITIAL SURGE OF RAIN THU INTO
THU NIGHT, SO THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST. AS A WAVE WORKS AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW.
QPF WITH THE INITIAL SURGE LOOKS DECENT AT THIS POINT, IT
PROBABLY WON;T END THE DROUGHT, BUT IT COULD MAKE A DENT. BY
FRIDAY, WE SEE THE CLOSED LOW INTERACTING WITH WITH SEVERAL
WAVES, MOSTLY COMING FROM A LARGER TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY, BUT
ALSO WILL BE AFFECTED BY HIGH NOSING FROM THE NORTHEAST, IT’S
HARD TO HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE, ALTHOUGH IT
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND IT DOES REQUIRE HAVE CHC
SHOWERS IN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY AT LEAST. OVERALL, THERE’S NOT
A LOT COLD AIR WITH THE SYSTEM, BUT IT COULD DRAG ENOUGH COLD
AIR INTO IT THAT SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.
AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT, THEN SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT AT LEB AND HIE. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF AROUND
20-25KT EASE AROUND SUNSET TODAY, AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR MON-WED, WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KHIE
IN SHRA AND LOW CIGS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ON THU IN RAIN AND LOW CIGS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
TOMORROW EVENING OFF THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TOMORROW.
LONG TERM... MAY NEED SCA IN NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SHOULD BE QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH
WE NIGHT, AND THEN MAY NEED SCA ON THU IN ENE FLOW AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE S.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERALL TOMORROW, BUT WILL STILL
BE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL EASE A BIT TOMORROW, AND MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH VALUES LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW 30S.
IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEVERAL NIGHTS OF POOR FUEL RECOVERY, BUT
TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER RECOVERY NIGHT WITH HIGH RH VALUES.
LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED RECOVERY MONDAY SHOULD
LOWER CONCERNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW...STORM SURGE IS STILL HOVER BETWEEN A
HALF AND ONE FOOT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE THE SURGE SHOULD FALL TO
AT OR JUST BELOW A FOOT BY HIGH TIDE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT WATER LEVELS JUST OVER FLOOD STAGE.
IF SURGE CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL TIDE CYCLES
REACHING ACTION STAGE ARE POSSIBLE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...CEMPA
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