899
FXUS61 KGYX 171654
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1154 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK ALONG WITH
A RESIDUAL STORM SURGE THAT MAY LEAD TO POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BUT
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. A SYSTEM LATE WEEK COULD PRODUCE SOME DECENT
PRECIPITATION, WHICH WOULD BE WELCOMED DROUGHT RELIEF.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
11:50AM UPDATE... TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON TRENDS
SO FAR THIS MORNING, BUT REALLY NO NOTABLE CHANGES. DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST SO FAR TODAY, BUT
SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILTERING IN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BRING THEM MORE IN LINE. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT OCCASIONALLY
FORCES THE WIND TO PICK UP. TEMPS VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE 40S WHEN THE WIND IS
UP...AND OTHERS FALLING INTO THE 20S WHEN CALM.
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S
LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS. LESS WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER A BIT. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN HIGH AND
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER AND
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
RIDGE BEGINS TO DEPART TONIGHT...AND MUCH LIKE CURRENT
CONDITIONS I SUSPECT THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF DECOUPLING AND
OTHERS THAN REMAIN MIXED. OVERALL SIMILAR FORECAST FOR LOW
TEMPS.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE MORNING WITH SOME WAA PRECIP AHEAD
OF IT. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS BATCH OF PRECIP. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL
BE AFTER THE FRONT DRIVES THRU THE AREA AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS
BEGIN. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTNS
PEAKS...SO FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IT WILL BE
CONTINUED DRY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE 500 MB PATTERN ACROSS NOAM, ALREADY SHOWING A BLOCKING
TREND, BECOMES EVEN MORE BLOCKY AS WE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY THIS WILL KEEP US MOSTLY DRY THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK
BEFORE WE GET INTO A LOCALIZED OMEGA AND REX BLOCK COMBINED BY
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY WE WILL BE DRY WITH JUST
A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE MTNS. IT’LL BE MILD THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH SFC TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT +10 F. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THAT
DOUBLE BLOCK SETS UP AND PUTS UNDER A CLOSED LOW SO THE THREAT
PF SOME PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST FOR THU-FRI.
THE SHOWERS IN THE MTNS MAY RAMP UP A BIT MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD BE RAIN EXCEPT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHILE S OF THE
MTNS LOOK TO BE DRY MON NIGHT. AS WE GET INTO SOME RIDGING ALOFT
ON TUE AND WED, THEY BOTH LOOK DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE SUNNIER THAN WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
MAY END UP WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN THE MTNS BOTH DAYS.
FOR THU-FRI /AND PERHAPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND/ WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF 500 MB CLOSED LOW WHICH TRACKS OUT OF THE OH VLY
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST Y FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING IN AN INITIAL SURGE OF RAIN THU INTO
THU NIGHT, SO THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST. AS A WAVE WORKS AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW.
QPF WITH THE INITIAL SURGE LOOKS DECENT AT THIS POINT, IT
PROBABLY WON;T END THE DROUGHT, BUT IT COULD MAKE A DENT. BY
FRIDAY, WE SEE THE CLOSED LOW INTERACTING WITH WITH SEVERAL
WAVES, MOSTLY COMING FROM A LARGER TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY, BUT
ALSO WILL BE AFFECTED BY HIGH NOSING FROM THE NORTHEAST, IT’S
HARD TO HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE, ALTHOUGH IT
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND IT DOES REQUIRE HAVE CHC
SHOWERS IN THERE THROUGH SATURDAY AT LEAST. OVERALL, THERE’S NOT
A LOT COLD AIR WITH THE SYSTEM, BUT IT COULD DRAG ENOUGH COLD
AIR INTO IT THAT SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL MON. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOWERS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
IN THE MTNS. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE CLOUD
COVER AND LOCAL MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU WED, WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT
KHIE IN SHRA AND LOW CIGS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ON THU IN RAIN AND LOW CIGS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST OUTSIDE OF
PENOBSCOT BAY TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
MON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM... MAY NEED SCA IN NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
MON NIGHT. SHOULD BE QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT, AND
THEN MAY NEED SCA ON THU IN ENE FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRES APPROACHING FROM THE S.
FIRE WEATHER
SOME IMPROVEMENT TODAY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB AND WINDS RELAX A BIT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT. FUEL
RECOVERY HAS STILL BEEN POOR OVERNIGHT SO FAR...SO I DO NOT WANT
TO SAY WE ARE PAST THE FIRE DANGER THREAT. WETTING RAINS SOUTH
OF THE MTNS STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY MON.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE INTO MON. DESPITE OFFSHORE
FLOW...STORM SURGE IS STILL HOVERING CLOSE TO A HALF FOOT. IF
TRENDS CONTINUE THAT SHOULD DIMINISH A FEW TENTHS HEADING INTO
HIGH TIDE TOMORROW...BUT THAT WILL STILL PUT WATER LEVELS NEAR
FLOOD STAGE FROM PORTLAND SOUTH TO THE SEACOAST
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
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