045
FXUS61 KGYX 180405
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1105 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BUT ANY SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. A
SYSTEM LATE WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH RAIN
TO MAKE A DENT IN THE DRY CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
11 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AT
THIS HOUR OTHER THAN SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
650 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN
TO THICKEN THE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS THICK
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST.
PREVIOUSLY...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD, LOOSENING ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER PATTERN. AT
THE SAME TIME, A WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY WASHES OUT BEFORE IT REACHES MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER, IT DOES MANAGE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AS MOISTURE STEAMS IN ALOFT.
A LIGHT SHIELD OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA ALOFT MOSTLY
DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. ONLY A STRAY SPRINKLE OR
FLURRY IS EXPECTED FROM THIS BEFORE DAYBREAK TOMORROW ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER LIMITS COOLING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE COOLING OCCURING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND THROUGH MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS,
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE COASTLINE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRIPLE POINT LOW MAKES MUCH
BETTER PROGRESS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW THAN THE WARM FRONT
WILL. WITH THIS, A BROKEN AND WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. NORTHERN AND WESTERN
LOCATIONS STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL, WITH
AMOUNTS STEADILY DROPPING OFF TOWARD THE COASTLINE. THIS MOSTLY
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPSLOPE WILL LIKELY BE WHERE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM,
BUT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SLOPES. LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS,
MAINLY ABOVE 4000FT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH
GENERALLY 1-3" EXPECTED IN THESE SPOTS. ELSEWHERE, A STRAY
FLURRY OR SPRINKLE CAN'T BE RULED OUT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS,
BUT FOR THE MOST PART SKIES WILL CLEAR DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE FLOW INCREASES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WARM INTO THE 50S DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS, TO
NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS
TOMORROW NIGHT DON'T DROP ALL THAT MUCH, WITH A LACK OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY RANGE THROUGH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
500 MB PATTERN STILL FEATURES NW FLOW TRANSITIONING TO RIDING
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT NIGHT, WHICH MEANS MAINLY DRY CONDS AND
MOSTLY MILD TEMPS, BUT THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE
WEEK AS 500 MB CLOSED TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED TO PA
ON THURSDAY, WITH AT LEAST ONE WAVE ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE
AND ALLOWING SFC LOW TO DEVELOP TO OUR S ON THU, WHICH THEN
STACKS UP AND PULLS NW TOWARD UPSTATE NY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA THU INTO FRI, WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS CLOSED LOW HANGS AROUND THROUGH SAT, SO
THERE ARE CHC POPS INTO SAT AT LEAST. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY ON THE PRECIP THU-THU NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPEN TO THE CLOSED LOW BEFORE IT
GETS HERE, BUT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN
FOR A FEW RUNS NOW. IT SHOULD TURN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT STILL NOTHING BELOW NORMAL.
TUE INTO WED LOOK GENERALLY SUNNY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL START
INCREASING WED AFTERNOON. HIGHS RUN ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
DAYS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE N TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AGAIN, BUT
SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM LATER IN THE NIGHT, AND COLD SEE SOME
PRECIP IN THE SW ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT THERE’S BEEN A SLOW
TREND IN THE MODELS TO HOLD MOST OF THIS OFF UNTIL DAYLIGHT THU.
THURSDAY WILL SEE THE RAIN TRACK INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE
DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH IT LIKELY RAINING
EVERYWHERE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUE IN
THU NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE THUS AFTERNOON INTO THU
EVENING. QPF IS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF TO ONE INCH WHICH WOULD
MAKE A DENT IN THE DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE
LOW IS IS OVERHEAD SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME BREAKS TO AND QPF VALUES ARE LIMITED TO MAYBE A QUARTER
INCH IN THIS TIME. ALSO, FRI, AND ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WILL SEE
COLDER AIR FILTER S AND LOWER SNOW ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS SO
COULD SEE SOME ACCUMS IN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS AS WELL AS PLACES
LIKE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MONADNOCKS. THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS NE, BUT SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AT
MOST TERMINALS. HIE IS THE EXCEPTION, WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY
AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE AT LEB MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT ARE LIKELY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUE-WED. MORE WIDESPREAD FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT IN RAIN AND LOW CIGS,
WHEN IFR-LIFR IS POSSIBLE. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE ON FRI,
BUT COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...A PERIOD OF FAIR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND MOST OF TOMORROW AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS. A
COLD FRONT THEN CROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FRESHEN BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TOMORROW
EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM... TUE WILL START WITH SCA CONDS BUT WINDS DROP OFF
DURING THE DAY, AND SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA THROUGH WED NIGHT, NE
WINDS PICK UP THU AS LOW P[RES DEVELOPS TO OUR S, AND SCA
POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE INTO MON. DESPITE OFFSHORE
FLOW...STORM SURGE IS STILL HOVERING CLOSE TO A HALF FOOT TO A
FOOT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE THAT SHOULD DIMINISH A FEW TENTHS
HEADING INTO HIGH TIDE TOMORROW...BUT THAT WILL STILL PUT WATER
LEVELS NEAR FLOOD STAGE FROM PORTLAND SOUTH TO THE SEACOAST.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CLAIR/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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