285
FXUS61 KGYX 181150 AAA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
650 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
DESPITE A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TODAY THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. ASIDE FROM SOME SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...S/WV TROF IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. LEADING PRECIP IS ALREADY ERODING AS
IT RUNS INTO DRY AIR MASS THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FOR DAYS NOW. WILL KEEP POP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS BECOME STEADY
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MORE
RELIABLY PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. FLOW
IS FORECAST TO LARGELY REMAIN BLOCKED...AND SHOWERS SHOULD STICK
TO THE RIDGELINE AND POINTS UPWIND.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS. CAA KEEPS
THE MECHANICAL MIXING GOING OVERNIGHT AND PREVENTS TEMPS FROM
GETTING TOO COLD. THE FIRST HALF OF TUE WILL BE GUSTY THOUGH
COLDER AIR DOES NOT REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
500 MB PATTERN STILL FEATURES NW FLOW TRANSITIONING TO RIDGING
THROUGH WED NIGHT NIGHT, WHICH MEANS MAINLY DRY CONDS AND
MOSTLY MILD TEMPS, BUT THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE
WEEK AS 500 MB CLOSED TRACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED TO PA
ON THURSDAY, WITH AT LEAST ONE WAVE ROTATING OUT OF THE BASE
AND ALLOWING SFC LOW TO DEVELOP TO OUR S ON THU, WHICH THEN
STACKS UP AND PULLS NW TOWARD UPSTATE NY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA THU INTO FRI, WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS CLOSED LOW HANGS AROUND THROUGH SAT, SO
THERE ARE CHC POPS INTO SAT AT LEAST. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY ON THE PRECIP THU-THU NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPEN TO THE CLOSED LOW BEFORE IT
GETS HERE, BUT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN
FOR A FEW RUNS NOW. IT SHOULD TURN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT STILL NOTHING BELOW NORMAL.
WED LOOKS GENERALLY SUNNY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL START
INCREASING WED AFTERNOON. HIGHS RUN ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
DAYS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE N TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN THE S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AGAIN, BUT
SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM LATER IN THE NIGHT, AND COLD SEE SOME
PRECIP IN THE SW ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT THERE’S BEEN A SLOW
TREND IN THE MODELS TO HOLD MOST OF THIS OFF UNTIL DAYLIGHT THU.
THURSDAY WILL SEE THE RAIN TRACK INTO THE CWA FROM SW TO NE
DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH IT LIKELY RAINING
EVERYWHERE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUE IN
THU NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE THUS AFTERNOON INTO THU
EVENING. QPF IS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF TO ONE INCH WHICH WOULD
MAKE A DENT IN THE DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE
LOW IS IS OVERHEAD SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME BREAKS TO AND QPF VALUES ARE LIMITED TO MAYBE A QUARTER
INCH IN THIS TIME. ALSO, FRI, AND ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WILL SEE
COLDER AIR FILTER S AND LOWER SNOW ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS SO
COULD SEE SOME ACCUMS IN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS AS WELL AS PLACES
LIKE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MONADNOCKS. THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS NE, BUT SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...DESPITE A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA CONDITIONS
LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
DRY UP AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. AS WINDS
TURN NORTHWEST AGAIN SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
MTNS...AND HIE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.
A FEW GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH MAY REACH 20 KT AT TIMES...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD 20 KT SURFACE GUSTS EXPECTED EARLY TUE.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR WED. MORE WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED THU AND THU NIGHT IN RAIN AND LOW CIGS, WHEN IFR-LIFR
IS POSSIBLE. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE ON FRI, BUT COULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH CAA
REALLY PICKING UP HEADING INTO TUE. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN TONIGHT AND A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THRU TUE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM... CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA THROUGH WED
NIGHT, NE WINDS PICK UP THU AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO OUR S, AND
SCA POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TODAY. DESPITE OFFSHORE
FLOW...STORM SURGE IS STILL HOVERING CLOSE TO A HALF FOOT TO
THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT. THAT SHOULD KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW
FLOOD STAGE TODAY IF TRENDS HOLD...BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SEACOAST.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO
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