991
FXUS61 KGYX 182310
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
610 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK THAT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
6 PM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN SPOTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUSLY...
AN UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINE THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR UPSLOPE RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND FAR NW MAINE. THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT WITH UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AROUND MIDNIGHT. STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED OVERNIGHT
LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
A NARROW AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE 50S. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL PRODUCE A NW GRADIENT OVER THE AREA, AND WITH FAVORABLE
MIXING THERE WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS 20-25 MPH. UPSLOPE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER ALONG AND NW OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING
WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSE TO OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE 500 MB RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE NE CONUS ON WED, WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY E AS 500 MB CLOSED TO OUR W BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS
ENERGETIC WAVE MOVES AROUND THE E SIDE OF IT’S BASE AND DEVELOPS
COASTAL LOW JUST S OF NYC THU MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
WETTER PERIOD INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE TO OUR NE AND E
WILL PREVENT THE CLOSED LOW FROM MOVING VERY MUCH FRI INTO SAT,
BUT IT SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT NE INTO THE MARITIMES BY SAT NIGHT,
BEFORE TRACKING ENE FURTHER FROM THE CWA ON SUNDAY.
WED WILL BE A NICE DAY, WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSE TOP 50 IN THE MTNS REACHING TO THE
MID 50S IN THE S. I THINK WED STAYS DRY, BUT THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
MOVE WITH RAIN BREAKING OUT FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT
PROBABLY WON’T MAKE INTO MUCH OF ME UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THU
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WED EVENING, MAINLY IN
THE 30S BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. I THINK THE ONLY PLACE
THAT SEES ANY SNOW AT THE START IS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
WHITES.
THU MORNING, THE RAIN OVERSPREADS ALMOST THE WHOLE CWA BY
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT MAYBE THE FAR NE ZONES WHERE IT MIGHT NO SHOW
UP UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, THANKS TO THE STRONG RIDGE EXITING
EAST. HIGHS THU WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S, WITH A FEW
READINGS AROUND 50 IN THE S. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MAY START TO TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS IN S NH TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRI. SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FRI MORNING IN
ALL BUT THE NE ZONES WHERE THE STEADY RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. QPF SEEMS TO FALL MOSTLY IN THE 0.75-1”
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO, I THINK THAT ON FRIDAY WE SEE SOME COLDER
AIR, ESPECIALLY ALOFT START TO MOVE IN FROM THE N, SO THIS WILL
LOWER SNOW ELEVATION THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW
INTO THE MTNS VALLEYS AND DOWN TO THE MONADNOCKS FRI NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH ACCUMS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
I WON’T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN THE CWA ON SATURDAY,
BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE MTNS WHERE THE DAYLIGHT WILL
PROBABLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT WARM
GROUND IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ADDL ACCUMS. THERE’S
STILL A CHANCE OF RA/SN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS, BUT SHOULD CLEARING
EVERYWHERE ELSE.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE
CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR TO KHIE TONIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY. NW WINDS WILL GUST
15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MUCH OF WED NIGHT, BUT WILL SEE
LOWERING CIGS AND SOME RAIN MOVING TOWARD DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR-LIFR LOOKS TO SETTLE IN FOR MUCH OF THU
INTO THU NIGHT, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT TIME ON FRIDAY.
SAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE VARIABLE VFR-MVFR CONDS
OUTSIDE THE MTNS, WITH MVFR AT KHIE, AND MAYBE KAUG.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL GUST
25-30 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH THE TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...SHOULD BE QUIET WED, WITH WINDS INCREASING LATE WED
NIGHT, AND SCAS PROBABLE BY THU INTO THU EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS OVER WATERS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRO SO THIS SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH, BUT MAY NEED AN SCA IN NW FLOW ON SAT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER/SCHROETER
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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