225
FXUS61 KGYX 191814
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
114 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK THAT WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
100 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STAY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS, WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTH. MAJORITY
OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS REMAIN CLEAR. OTHERWISE,
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREV DISC...A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
TODAY. GYX PROBABILITY PLOTS SUGGEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW,
MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. DOWNWIND, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND RH VALUES IN THE 45 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.
WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IN A WELL MIXED LAYER,
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 50S
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOW. HIGHEST READINGS WILL BE IN THE
PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEY AREA.
ON WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO RETROGRADE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, WARMEST READING WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE FULL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
THE MID 50S IN SOME AREAS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE 500 MB RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE NE CONUS, WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
E AS 500 MB CLOSED TO OUR W BEGINS TO MOVE IN AS ENERGETIC WAVE
MOVES AROUND THE E SIDE OF IT’S BASE AND DEVELOPS COASTAL LOW
JUST S OF NYC THU MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WETTER PERIOD
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE BULK
OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AROUND LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE TO OUR NE AND E WILL PREVENT
THE CLOSED LOW FROM MOVING VERY MUCH FRI INTO SAT, BUT IT
SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT NE INTO THE MARITIMES BY SAT NIGHT, BEFORE
TRACKING ENE FURTHER FROM THE CWA ON SUNDAY.
WED WILL BE A NICE DAY, WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS CLOSE TOP 50 IN THE MTNS REACHING TO THE
MID 50S IN THE S. I THINK WED STAYS DRY, BUT THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
MOVE WITH RAIN BREAKING OUT FROM SW TO NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT
PROBABLY WON’T MAKE INTO MUCH OF ME UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THU
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WED EVENING, MAINLY IN
THE 30S BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. I THINK THE ONLY PLACE
THAT SEES ANY SNOW AT THE START IS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
WHITES.
THU MORNING, THE RAIN OVERSPREADS ALMOST THE WHOLE CWA BY
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT MAYBE THE FAR NE ZONES WHERE IT MIGHT NO SHOW
UP UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, THANKS TO THE STRONG RIDGE EXITING
EAST. HIGHS THU WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S, WITH A FEW
READINGS AROUND 50 IN THE S. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MAY START TO TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS IN S NH TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRI. SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FRI MORNING IN
ALL BUT THE NE ZONES WHERE THE STEADY RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. QPF SEEMS TO FALL MOSTLY IN THE 0.75-1”
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO, I THINK THAT ON FRIDAY WE SEE SOME COLDER
AIR, ESPECIALLY ALOFT START TO MOVE IN FROM THE N, SO THIS WILL
LOWER SNOW ELEVATION THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW
INTO THE MTNS VALLEYS AND DOWN TO THE MONADNOCKS FRI NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH ACCUMS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
I WON’T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN THE CWA ON SATURDAY,
BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE MTNS WHERE THE DAYLIGHT WILL
PROBABLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT WARM
GROUND IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ADDL ACCUMS. THERE’S
STILL A CHANCE OF RA/SN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS, BUT SHOULD CLEARING
EVERYWHERE ELSE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY, BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.
KHIE HAS MFR CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GO DOWN LATER THIS EVENING. KCON, KAUG,
KRKD HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUD CEILINGS NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MUCH OF WED NIGHT, BUT WILL SEE
LOWERING CIGS AND SOME RAIN MOVING TOWARD DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR-LIFR LOOKS TO SETTLE IN FOR MUCH OF THU
INTO THU NIGHT, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT TIME ON FRIDAY.
SAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE VARIABLE VFR-MVFR CONDS
OUTSIDE THE MTNS, WITH MVFR AT KHIE, AND MAYBE KAUG.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL GUST
25-30 KTS THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM...SHOULD BE QUIET WED, WITH WINDS INCREASING LATE WED
NIGHT, AND SCAS PROBABLE BY THU INTO THU EVENING. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS OVER WATERS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRO SO THIS SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH, BUT MAY NEED AN SCA IN NW FLOW ON SAT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ150>154.
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