458
FXUS61 KGYX 192054
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
354 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS
WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE
FORECASTING REGION TODAY, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN KEEPING CLOUDS
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE, LEADING TO
CLEARER SKIES IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID-40S IN NORTHERN COUNTIES,
AND MID-50S IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD DEPEND ON HOW THE CLOUDS BEHAVE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OVERNIGHT,
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CREEPING IN IN SOUTHERN REGIONS
OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD CAUSE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO STAY
RELATIVELY WARMER, AROUND THE HIGH 30S. IF CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE
IN, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER TEMPERATURES CAUSED BY
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TOMORROW, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EAST FROM THE
MID-WEST. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF THE
NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-50S AND MID-40S AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SETUP...
A STRONG, SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY, LIKELY REMAINING CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LOW, WITH THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN CENTER WEAKENING WITH
MUCH OF THE ENERGY TRANSFERRED OVER TO AN EASTERN LOBE OF THE
UPPER LOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION WITH THIS ENERGY TRANSFER AS
WELL, WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF
LONG ISLAND AND LIKELY ROTATING NW TOWARD THE BERKSHIRES/ALBANY
REGION FRIDAY.
RESULTING WEATHER...
MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE LOW LIKELY STAYING TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST, WE WILL BE ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY RAIN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOME PRETTY
DECENT RAIN RATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES.
EXPECTING GENERALLY 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE AREA.
AGAIN, PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WHITES SHOULD BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME HEAVY WET SNOW THOUGH, MAINLY ABOVE 4000
FT. FAIRLY BREEZY FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY, BECOMING
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO CAUSE ANY TREE/POWER
ISSUES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY KICK OFF
TO THE EAST WITH SOME DRIER WEATHER FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, THOUGH, THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR EAST THAT WE COULD STILL HAVE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. COOLER AIR WILL
ALSO WORK IN FROM THE WEST WHICH COULD BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN A
BIT, PERHAPS WITH SOME FLAKES TO SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY THEN, AND NOT LOOKING FOR ANY NOTABLE
LOW ELEVATION ACCUMULATIONS.
NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME AROUND TUESDAY,
THOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES A LOT BEYOND MONDAY.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KTS THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY, BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.
KHIE HAS MFR CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LOW CLOUD CEILINGS,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GO DOWN LATER THIS EVENING. KCON, KAUG,
KRKD HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUD CEILINGS NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AREAWIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH IFR MOST LIKELY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
MVFR/IFR INTO THURSDAY EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR/MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS
NORTH/EAST OF PORTLAND AND PERHAPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WHERE MVFR/IFR COULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. NE WINDS INCREASING
TO 10-15 KTS THU/THU NIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SE AROUND 10
KTS FRIDAY, THEN SHIFTING BACK TO THE N ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR
THE MID-COAST OF MAINE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 5
FT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AT 5-10 KTS.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY EVEN CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE WORST THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS JUST UNDER
GALE FORCE AND SEAS AS HIGH AS ABOUT 10 FT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-151.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ152>154.
SYNOPSIS...BRENNAN
NEAR TERM...BRENNAN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...BRENNAN/FOISY
MARINE...BRENNAN/FOISY
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