558
FXUS61 KGYX 201813
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
113 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1PM UPDATE...ANOTHER UPDATE MAINLY TO TEMPS/SKIES TODAY. DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR IS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HESITANT TO FORM FURTHER SOUTH, AND TEMPS HAVE
CLIMBED ABOVE PREV EXPECTED HIGHS.
9AM UPDATE...A CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO INVADE FROM THE NE THIS
MORNING. WHERE THERE IS FULL SUN, TEMPERATURES ARE RECOVERING
QUICKLY. CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NH WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST AREAS IN
THE CWA TO RECEIVE THIS CLOUD DECK, AND EXPECT TODAY'S WARMEST
TEMPS HERE, RISING TO THE LOW TO MID 50S. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH PRECIPITATION NOT GETTING INTO SOUTHERN NH UNTIL
EARLY THURS AM DESPITE THICKENING CLOUDS TODAY/TONIGHT.
540AM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST HREF CONTINUES TO HAVE THIS MOISTURE MOVING FROM EAST
TO WEST TODAY, REACHING NEW HAMPSHIRE BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS AND WINDS FOR
THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS LATEST UPDATE.
PREV DISC...
ONE MORE DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS DO BEGIN TO VEER FROM THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER MAINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WHICH IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST HREF SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH MID 40S IN
THE NORTH TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING
UNDERNEATH A LARGE, CUTOFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. 00Z GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPAWNING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN POLEWARD AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING LONG ISLAND NEW YORK BY
LATE AT NIGHT. RAIN WILL REACH SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
ON THURSDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. A
GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION OFF THE GULF OF
MAINE AND INTO OUR REGION, BRINGING THE MOST WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WE HAVE HAD IN QUITE A WHILE AS OUR DROUGHT CONDITIONS
PERSIST. IT WILL BE CHILLY AND RAW WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN
THE 40S IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MAY BE MIXING IN WITH SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
WINDS PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT
MAXIMIZES OVER THE REGION. A FEW GUSTS MAY TOP 35 MPH IN HEAVY
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO OUR EAST THAT WE COULD STILL HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO WORK IN
FROM THE WEST WHICH COULD BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN A BIT, PERHAPS
WITH SOME FLAKES TO SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA BY THEN, AND NOT LOOKING FOR ANY NOTABLE LOW
ELEVATION ACCUMULATIONS.
NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME AROUND TUESDAY,
THOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES A LOT BEYOND MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR ACROSS MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR DECK WILL RESIDE TOWARDS AUG/RKD BEFORE PUSHING SW THIS
EVENING. WINDS BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY.
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO IFR AND LIFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION.
LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS NORTH/EAST OF PORTLAND AND PERHAPS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE MVFR/IFR COULD PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THU/THU NIGHT, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE SE AROUND 10 KTS FRIDAY, THEN SHIFTING BACK TO
THE N ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD, HENCE SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY EVEN CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE WORST THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS
JUST UNDER GALE FORCE AND SEAS AS HIGH AS ABOUT 10 FT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ151-153.
NEAR TERM...CANNON/CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...CEMPA
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