646
FXUS61 KGYX 210335
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1035 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
1030 PM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. EARLIER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY TO RADIATE WELL INTO THE 30S BUT LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE NOW ADVANCED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME MIXING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES LEVELING OFF THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
PREVIOUSLY...
7:00 PM UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS BOTH
CURRENTLY SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PRESENT ALONG SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN NH, WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS
DENSE LOW- LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD-IN FROM THE EAST. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK, REFRESHED TEMPERATURES TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST.
PREVIOUSLY...
SKIES REMAIN OR BECOME OVERCAST TONIGHT AS BRIEF
RIDGING PULLS EAST. THE CLOUD DECK MAINTAINS A MILD NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES. ENOUGH DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD PREVENT FOG OR DRIZZLE FORMATION THROUGH THE
EARLY AM.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
BROAD STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE COMBING THE
NORTHEAST. THE ACTUAL LOW'S MOTION WILL BE QUITE SLOW, AND
PRECIP IN NEW ENGLAND WILL DEPEND THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT, AS WELL AS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SFC LOW
CLOSER TO THE CWA.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE NEAR LONG ISLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT LACKS MUCH NORTHWARD TRANSLATION
THROUGH THE DAY. A RETROGRADE BACK ACROSS PA IS LIKELY TO MERGE
WITH THE PARENT LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE AFTERNOON GOES
ON. THIS ZONAL MOVEMENT MAY DELAY NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO NH/ME THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
ALL IN ALL, HAVE DELAYED PRECIP ONSET TO THURSDAY MORNING IN SW
NH, AS WELL AS SLOWED HOW QUICKLY PRECIP TRACKS NORTH HERE INTO
SOUTHERN ME AND THEN CENTRAL ME. PARTS OF THE MIDCOAST TO
LEWISTON MAY SPEND MUCH OF THE DAY DRY, WITH RAIN CHANCES NOT
COMING TO FRUITION UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FOCUS OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL BE SOUTHERN NH AND FAR SOUTHERN ME. A
PUSH TO FOCUS PRECIP NORTH OF HERE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY. HIGHER TERRAIN
MAY SEE PRECIP ONSET QUICKER THAN LOWLAND SURROUNDINGS, WITH
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TAKING PLACE WEST OF THE WESTERN ME AND NW NH
MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY ALSO ACT TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THESE
LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND LACK OF ADDITIONAL SFC LOW
SUPPORT, QPF HAS TAKEN A STEP LIGHTER. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL TEND
TO BE LIGHTER OUTSIDE OF PRIMARY BAND THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. FOR PRECIP TYPES, ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS,
WITH RAIN/SNOW/ICE OCCURING AT THE HIGHER SUMMITS OF THE WHITES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
04Z LONG TERM FORECAST UPDATE... LATEST GLOBAL FORECAST GUIDANCE
AND THE NBM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STACKED LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MOST OF THIS
TO FALL AS PLAIN RAIN EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PERHAPS FAR WESTERN NH WHERE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW, A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE.
BRIEF S/WV RIDGING LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUSLY...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN HIGH FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA, BUT THESE WILL DIMINISH LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.
STARTING FRIDAY, MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A BAND OF
STEADY PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS,
CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR THEN FOLLOWS, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP TO JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, AND THERE'S POTENTIAL TO SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN MAINE SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
AN UPPER WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE
SURFACE LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, SO SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW.
THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH TRANSITION TO UPSLOPING KEEPS CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES A
DRYING TREND. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY, BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY DAY WITH A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS WITH SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. GLOBAL MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN PRETTY TYPICAL FOR LATE
NOVEMBER AND IN THE 40S, BUT SOME COOLER AIR MAY START TO MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR TRENDS MVFR FOR LOCATIONS THAT ARE NOT ALREADY
UNDER MVFR CIGS. IFR CIGS ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN NH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURS AM AND CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO ME THROUGH
THE DAY. HIE MAY BE THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT SEES MVFR/VFR AS
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY. HIE MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING IN PROXIMITY TO THE
WHITES. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAIN LIKELY FROM FRIDAY INTO
AT LEAST SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. CEILINGS COULD IMPROVE TO HIGH END MVFR OR EVEN LOW
END VFR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT COULD AGAIN LOWER TO IFR/LIFR
AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY ARRIVES
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY RAIN BUT COULD MIX IN WITH SNOW AT TIMES AWAY FROM THE
COAST. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT MVFR
CEILINGS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT HIE. OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE BUT WORTH MENTIONING: WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST, BUT
THAT DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. A FEW GUSTS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE. THIS WILL BUILD WAVES 3
TO 7 FT THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER
COASTALS.
LONG TERM...EVEN THOUGH A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS EARLY FRIDAY, SCA CONDITIONS (AT A MINIMUM) WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURES MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR OR OVER THE GULF OF MAINE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, BUT THAT IS DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF THE LOW. A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BUT ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS AROUND MONDAY NIGHT
OR TUESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ151-153.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...TUBBS/COMBS
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