525
FXUS61 KGYX 150453
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1153 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS DESCENDED ON THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR
SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THOSE TEMPERATURES UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY.
IT WILL TAKE PRECIPITATION A LONG TIME TO WORK INTO THE AREA
OVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT EVENTUALLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT
FOR SOME SNOWFALL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
1145 PM UPDATE... CLEAR SKIES REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
ALREADY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE MIXING
AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEYS BUT THE LATEST RAP13 SHOWS
1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND DIMINISHING BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO FULLY DECOUPLE.
PREVIOUSLY...
615 PM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. A CLEAR MOON LIT COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON LIKELY BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
PREVIOUSLY...
CLEAR SKIES CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN A
NIGHT’S LONG DESCENT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD,
WITH POSITIONING TO PROMOTE GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING. NAEFS
CLIMO SUGGESTS THE STRENGTH OF THIS HIGH WILL RIVAL OTHER
SEASONAL HIGHS, TRENDING MAX FOR ALL HOURS FOR MOST OF NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH CALM WINDS AND SNOWPACK,
POINTS IN THE MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN VALLEYS, AND FOOTHILLS WILL
SEE TEMPS GO BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE NIGHT CREW’S
TREND BEGINNING WITH MOS GUIDANCE WHERE SNOWPACK IS PRESENT,
ADJUSTING AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEGREES DOWN, AND BLENDING MORE
TOWARDS MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE INTERFACE TO THE COAST (ROUGH
SNOW COVER LINE BASED ON NOHRSC DATA). TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE COAST GIVEN THE PRIME
COOLING CONDITIONS AND DRY AIRMASS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
GOOD RECOVERY OCCURRED TODAY, AND THINK THIS WILL CARRY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS RETURN FLOW SLOWLY PICKS UP. IT WILL CERTAINLY
BE A COLD START TO THE DAY, BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMING THROUGH
THE MID TEENS FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR BY 10AM. HIGHS TOP OUT
AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA, WITH A COUPLE SPOTS OF MID 30S
FOR SE NH. NOT AS BREEZY SUNDAY AS THE BROAD HIGH STILL
MAINTAINS A CALM INFLUENCE. CLOUDS DO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY IN THE WAY OF CIRRUS. DESPITE ANOTHER CALM
NIGHT, THESE CLOUDS AND A BIT MORE BREEZE HELP PREVENT LOWS FROM
TAKING SUCH A VIGOROUS DIP AS SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ZERO FOR THE CWA, WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER
TEENS TO AROUND 20.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LONG TERM 05Z FORECAST UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LATEST
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) REGARDING TWO PRECIPITATION
EVENTS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY RAIN,
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. THE SECOND SYSTEM TOWARDS MID-WEEK COULD BRING
MORE IN THE WAY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BUT SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
PREVIOUSLY...
KEY MESSAGE: A COUPLE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE MON/TUE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE AT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEK.
OVERVIEW: AFTER THE WILD RIDE OF INTENSE LOW PRESSURE TO EXTREME
HIGH PRESSURE THE PATTERN WILL TURN TO MORE RUN OF THE MILL
ACTIVE. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.
DETAILS: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST...BUT ONLY
SLOWLY GIVING GROUND. AS SUCH APPROACHING CLOUDS/PRECIP MON WILL
TEND TO BE ERODED RATHER QUICKLY ON THE LEADING EDGE. THERE IS
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA MON. AS THE COLUMN SATURATES EVENTUALLY PRECIP
WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. EVAPORATION WILL HELP COOL
THE AIR...AND HIGH PRESSURE DESPITE DEPARTING WILL PROVIDE A
READY FEED OF DRIER AIR...SO THERE IS THE THREAT AT THE ONSET OF
SOME SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ONCE WAA STARTS IN
EARNEST IT SHOULD BE RATHER EASY TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL COLD
COMPARED TO THE LAST EVENT. SO ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE BRIEF. THEN ALL RAIN IS FORECAST UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES AND WE TRANSITION TO MTN SNOW SHOWERS.
THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRIES TO BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. IT WILL BE A PERIOD TO WATCH...WITH MULTIPLE
S/WV TROFS POTENTIALLY IN PLAY. THEY COULD PHASE AND LEAD TO A
LARGE SYSTEM...OR REMAIN SEPARATE WAVES AND LEAD TO MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR LIGHTER PRECIP. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MORE CONFLUENCE TO OUR NORTH LEADS TO MORE SNOW LOCALLY...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THAT LOCATION WOULD KEEP COLD IN PLACE.
IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY OUTCOME IS
PRETTY LOW AT THIS LEAD TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL GO CALM TONIGHT UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS DO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SLOWLY THICKENING AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MON.
THEY WILL BE FIGHTING DRY AIR TO THE NORTHEAST...SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON JUST HOW FAR THEY PROGRESS AND HOW LOW THE CIGS ARE
ABLE TO GET. BUT BY TUE AREAS OF IFR WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE AT SOME FZRA OR SN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT
EVENTUALLY ALL RA IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LLWS
IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TUE. VFR RETURNS BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXCEPT FOR NORTH OF THE MTNS WHERE SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS 1 TO 3 FT.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES LATE SUNDAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUE WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCA CONDITIONS
LINGER AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY...DIMINISHING BY WED
MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS MAY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL
STORM PASSES THE GULF OF ME AND INCREASES NORTHEAST WINDS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...LEGRO/TUBBS
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