886
FXUS61 KGYX 151114
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
614 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS DESCENDED ON THE NORTHEAST WITH CLEAR
SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THOSE TEMPERATURES UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY.
IT WILL TAKE PRECIPITATION A LONG TIME TO WORK INTO THE AREA
OVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT EVENTUALLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT FOR
SOME SNOWFALL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE AFTER A COLD START,
LIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN THE DAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS CROSSING THROUGH REGION.
PREV DISC...
THE COLDEST MORNING OF THIS FALL BEGINS THIS MORNING WITH MANY
AREAS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
SUNRISE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ADVANCING OVER THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING THE
BRIGHT SUNSHINE TO FADE AT TIME PER SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST HREF
SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ALLOWED A FULL RECOVERY
HOWEVER WITH READINGS REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND
FROM THE WEST. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
EAST, BRINGING WITH IT JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY
MONDAY OVER MOSTLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. BY LATE IN THE DAY, A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
EVENTUALLY REACH THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
LONG TERM 05Z FORECAST UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LATEST
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) REGARDING TWO PRECIPITATION
EVENTS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY RAIN,
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. THE SECOND SYSTEM TOWARDS MID-WEEK COULD BRING
MORE IN THE WAY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BUT SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
PREVIOUSLY...
KEY MESSAGE: A COUPLE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE MON/TUE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE AT SNOW
LATE IN THE WEEK.
OVERVIEW: AFTER THE WILD RIDE OF INTENSE LOW PRESSURE TO EXTREME
HIGH PRESSURE THE PATTERN WILL TURN TO MORE RUN OF THE MILL
ACTIVE. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.
DETAILS: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST...BUT ONLY
SLOWLY GIVING GROUND. AS SUCH APPROACHING CLOUDS/PRECIP MON WILL
TEND TO BE ERODED RATHER QUICKLY ON THE LEADING EDGE. THERE IS
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA MON. AS THE COLUMN SATURATES EVENTUALLY PRECIP
WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. EVAPORATION WILL HELP COOL
THE AIR...AND HIGH PRESSURE DESPITE DEPARTING WILL PROVIDE A
READY FEED OF DRIER AIR...SO THERE IS THE THREAT AT THE ONSET OF
SOME SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ONCE WAA STARTS IN
EARNEST IT SHOULD BE RATHER EASY TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL COLD
COMPARED TO THE LAST EVENT. SO ANY SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE BRIEF. THEN ALL RAIN IS FORECAST UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES AND WE TRANSITION TO MTN SNOW SHOWERS.
THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRIES TO BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. IT WILL BE A PERIOD TO WATCH...WITH MULTIPLE
S/WV TROFS POTENTIALLY IN PLAY. THEY COULD PHASE AND LEAD TO A
LARGE SYSTEM...OR REMAIN SEPARATE WAVES AND LEAD TO MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR LIGHTER PRECIP. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MORE CONFLUENCE TO OUR NORTH LEADS TO MORE SNOW LOCALLY...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THAT LOCATION WOULD KEEP COLD IN PLACE.
IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY OUTCOME IS
PRETTY LOW AT THIS LEAD TIME.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON, SLOWLY THICKENING AND
LOWERING OVERNIGHT. AREAS IF IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND LOWERED CEILING EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...BY TUE AREAS OF IFR WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE AT SOME FZRA OR SN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT
EVENTUALLY ALL RA IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LLWS
IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TUE. VFR RETURNS BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXCEPT FOR NORTH OF THE MTNS WHERE SOME LOCAL UPSLOPE
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS
MORNING, BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS 1 TO 3 FT.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES LATE TODAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE CONTINUING MONDAY.
LONG TERM...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUE WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCA CONDITIONS
LINGER AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY...DIMINISHING BY WED
MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS MAY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL
STORM PASSES THE GULF OF ME AND INCREASES NORTHEAST WINDS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...TUBBS
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