314
FXUS61 KGYX 161457
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
957 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN. DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOWFALL. A COLDER AIR MASS
MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
9:55AM UPDATE... ADDED A FEW MORE FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE ARE MOSTLY
JUST NOVELTY FLAKES WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BEYOND ANY
DUSTINGS THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. ALSO BROUGHT DOWN TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN, LIMITING THE
WARMING POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, NO NOTABLE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
635 AM...JUST SOME MINOR REVISIONS TO POPS THRU THIS MORNING TO
COVER THE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OVER S NH, BUT NOTHING THAT
CHANGES THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY.
PREVIOUSLY...500 MB CLOSED LOW OF W NY STATE THIS MORNING RUNS
INTO THE RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER NH/ME, ANS LOSES MUCH OF IT’S
STEAM, ESPECIALLY THIS FAR N. A FEW LIGHT SHSN, OR PROBABLY MORE
LIKELY, JUST SOME FLURRIES COULD MOVE ACROSS S NH AND FAR SW ME
THROUGH ABOUT 12-14Z, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMS. THE REST OF TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DRY THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET, ALTHOUGH GENERALLY CLOUDY, ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE E ZONES IN ME. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY
TO AN INCREASING S FLOW NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE MTNS TO NEAR 40 IN COASTAL
AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP ARRIVES AFTER SUNSET, MAINLY IN THE
MTNS FIRST, LIKELY AS UPSLOPE FZDZ JUST AFTER SUNSET, BUT MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STEADIER PRECIP ARRIVES LATE IN THE
EVENING ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA, AND THIS IS LIKELY RAIN,
ALTHOUGH SOME FZRA MAY LINGER INTO THE PRE-DAWN ABOVE 2500 FT
OR SO IN THE MTNS, AND MAY START AS BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA N AND E
OF THE THE RANGELEY-JACKMAN AREA, BUT THIS SHOULD NOT LAST FOR
LONG AS THE S FLOW ALOFT MIXES ITS WAY THROUGH THE SHALLOW COLD
SFC LYR ONCE THE PRECIP STARTS. I DON;T SEE MUCH ICE, EVEN ON
THE HIGHER PEAKS THE MAX LOOKS LIKE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
BEFORE IT GOES OVER TO RAIN. THE S FLOW WILL INCREASE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS WELL AND COULD SEE SOME GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH ON THE
COAST. LOW WILL LIKE BE IN THE EVENING, AND PROBABLY EARLY
EVENING IN THE S, MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 40S ON THE COAST AND IN THE S NH AFTER MIDNIGHT,
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE N BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THIS SYSTEM IS FAST MOVING AND SOME RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY MORNING, IT SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY, SOME
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING, BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN EVERYWHERE BUT THE MTNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S IN THE S, AND AROUND 40 IN THE N.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
16/04Z LONG TERM FORECAST UPDATE... LATEST ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC BASED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A QUICK HITTING ROUND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING LIGHT TO PERHAPS
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
COULD COME BY EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHICH THEN WILL
LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUSLY...
KEY MESSAGES: WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
IT WILL DEPEND ON TRACK/TIMING...BUT SOME SNOW/MIX IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY IN THE MTNS. THE COAST AND SOUTHERN NH IS MORE OF A
TOSS UP BETWEEN ALL RAIN AND SNOW/MIX.
OVERVIEW: GRADUAL BUILDING OF A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL SUPPORT
A DEEPENING EAST COAST TROF THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE TROF
WILL BE CARVED OUT BY SEVERAL S/WV TROFS THAT WILL BRING AT
LEAST A COUPLE CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIP TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THRU THE WEEKEND.
DETAILS: COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION WILL SWEEP THRU EARLY TUE AND
BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN. TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY...AS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING. HOWEVER THE FRONT
ITSELF MAY BRIEFLY MIX THINGS OUT AND TEMPS COULD SPIKE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN. OVERALL I LEANED
COLDER ON HOURLY TEMPS...WITH A HIGH TEMP GRID SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SPIKE. DESPITE THE COLD AIR
DAMMING THOUGH THE PTYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE
HIGHEST PEAKS.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT QUITE BUILD
IN...BUT SURFACE RIDGING DOES BRIEFLY NOSE NORTHWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE CLOSE ON ITS HEELS. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV TROF WILL APPROACH THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO BLOSSOM ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF OF THE FRONT CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OVERWHELMINGLY FAVORS
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MTNS. CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT CLOSER TO 50/50...AND
SOME OF THOSE SNOW MEMBERS TRANSITION TO RAIN AS WELL. HOWEVER
THIS TYPE OF EVENT WILL BE THREADING A NEEDLE...AND SMALL MOVES
IN SYNOPTIC FEATURES CAN LEAD TO LARGE CHANGES IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER AT THE SURFACE. SO ANY FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING AWAY
FROM A LARGER PHASED STORM SYSTEM AND TOWARDS TWO SEPARATE
EVENTS INCLUDING THIS EARLY THU EVENT AND ANOTHER SAT.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH SOME TO IFR OR LOWER LATER TODAY AND DEFINITELY BY THIS
EVENING. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING AT ALL BUT
KHIE WHICH WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR.
LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT INTO THU AND AGAIN FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PRECIP TYPE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS RANGE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...S-SE FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCA
CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING, AND POSSIBLE GALES IN THE
EASTERN WATERS TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BUT SCA CONDITIONS COULD
LINGER INTO EARLY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF SYSTEM
APPROACH AND PASS NEAR THE GULF OF ME.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ150-151.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ152>154.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO/TUBBS
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