320
FXUS61 KGYX 200758
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
258 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK CLIPPER PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT,
WHILE ANOTHER LOW LASSES WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT, BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW. VERY COLD AIR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING, AND SRN STREAM WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ARE OUR TWO SYSTEMS
OF INTEREST TODAY AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THEY NEVER QUITE GET
TOGETHER TO PHASE, THERE WILL BE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THAT
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW OR SHSN TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE SRN STREAM WILL SEE A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, THAT TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE TO A POINT S
OF NOVA SCOTIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SN OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO S NH AND ALONG THE ME COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE BROADER TROUGH TO OUR W WILL BRING SOME
SHSN INTO THE MTNS, AND THE CT VLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. NONE
OF THIS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BUT IT WILL IMPACT THE EVENING
COMMUTE. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN SE NH AND ALONG THE
ME COAST S OF PORTLAND BY SUNSET, WITH SOME LOCALIZED COATINGS
OF SNOW IN MOST OTHER SPOTS, ALTHOUGH EASTERN ZONES MAY BOT SEE
MUCH SNOW UNTIL SUNSET. IT’LL GENERALLY BE CLOUDY ALL DAY, AND
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE N TO AROUND 30
IN THE S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
THE OFFSHORE LOW DEEPENS THOUGH TONIGHT, BUT ALSO TRACK NE AND
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANY SNOW
TO AN END ACROSS ALL BIT THE MID COAST AND CAPITAL DISTRICT
BEFORE MIDNIGHT, BUT IN THAT AREA, COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO THE LOW.
HERE COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE
WINDS SHIFT FROM NE TO NW IN THE NH AND W ME, WHICH WILL SEE
UPSLOPE SHSN REDEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND END THE SNOW IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS. LOW DROP TO 10-15 IN THE MTNS, TO AROUND 20 IN
THE S, ALTHOUGH SOME LOW TO MID 20S ALONG MID COAST WITH THE
SNOW AND CLOUDS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 IN SE NH AND ON THE COAST, WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE SNOW END EVERYWHERE BUT THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE THE UPSLOPE SHSN WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN
THE FAVORED AREAS. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S, TO AROUND 30
NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE 01Z NBM. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY REMAINS IN THE CARDS
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE.
PREVIOUSLY...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL MODE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. NEVERTHELESS, WE DO NOT START OUT THE DAY ALL THAT
COLD ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 20S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR A WELL MIXED
LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH
WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BELOW
ZERO IN ALL AREAS BY MORNING.
DESPITE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING AND PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST, SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE
DUE TO FORCING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN,
HIGHER TERRAIN.
BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WILL BE OVER THE REGION. SOME AREAS WILL UNDERGO RADIATIONAL
COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO ZERO TO
10 BELOW IN THE NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTH.
12Z MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE DRY PATTERN
CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS TO PASS BY TO
OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN -SN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH KRKD COULD SEE MORE IFR
OVERNIGHT THAN OTHER LOCATIONS. A RETURN VFR IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AT ALL BUT KHIE WHICH WILL BE MAINLY MVFR IN UPSLOPE
CLOUDS/SHSN.
LONG TERM...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MARINE
SHORT TERM...NE FLOW INCREASES THIS MORNING WITH SCA WINDS
EXPECTED THOUGH THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS SWITCH N
LATER TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY NW ON SAT. AS COASTAL LOW DEEPENS
WELL OFFSHORE COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES IN THE
WATERS S OF PEN BAY LATE TONIGHT EARLY SAT. OTHERWISE SCA WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BACK OUT OF THE NORTH BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CANNON/EKSTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page