343
FXUS61 KGYX 132342
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
642 PM EST MON JAN 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE. UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD. A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMS ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PREVIOUSLY...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE REFORMING NEAR THE MIDCOAST REGION LATE AT NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW POSSIBLY ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
REFORMS. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL MAY FALL IN THOSE LOCATIONS
DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO THE 20S
ACROSS THE SOUTH. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL FORM OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MOST OF THE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPSLOPE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION. IT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH H8
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -17C IN A WELL MIXED LAYER. IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER AS WELL WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
OVERVIEW: BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FLOW TURNS ZONAL WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF EAST COAST RIDGING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A HUDSON BAY
POLAR VORTEX BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH WITH AN ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO
THE UPPER PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA SOMETIME
AROUND SUNDAY BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WHERE THE
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AND A POTENTIAL WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THE HOLIDAY NEXT
WEEK.
IMPACTS: NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
COLD TEMPERATURES IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING. WATCHING A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS STILL
BELOW 10% AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST DETAILS: WEDNESDAY THE AREA WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH THE WINDS, BUT WILL STILL BE COLD SUB-
ZERO WIND CHILLS IN MOUNTAINS AND TEENS ON THE COAST/SOUTHERN NH.
THURSDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR
ACCUMULATION, BUT A FEW INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
WARMING TREND STARTS BY FRIDAY AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN CAUSING SOME ADIABATIC WARMING
AND HIGHS BREAKING FREEZING OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ALLOWING
FOR SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WITH THE WARMEST DAY IN WEEKS EXPECTED AS
HIGHS COULD TOP 40 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST AND SOUTHERN NH. COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. STILL LARGE SPREAD ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK,
BUT THERE COULD BE A QUICKLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
THERMAL GRADIENT THAT WILL BRING A SHOT OF COLD AIR.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...LOCALLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
ANY SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY AT HIE AND RKD. LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
RETREAT TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...OVERALL AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KHIE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH UPSLOPE NW FLOW BRINGING A LOW
CLOUD DECK AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NW FLOW FOR
REMAINDER OF TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SW ON
SATURDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...THE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCAS WILL BE NEEDED
FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT
LEAST AS OFFSHORE NW WINDS REMAIN STRONG BEHIND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH NW WINDS. LIGHTER WINDS
ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ154.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/CANNON
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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