660
FXUS61 KGYX 141533
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1033 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE. UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1030 AM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MTNS AND TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
PREVIOUSLY...
630AM UPDATE...NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. UPSTREAM RADAR
SITES DEPICT PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE QUEBEC/NH/ME BORDER
THIS MORNING AND ITS THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE SOUTH OF PASSING
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN LIGHT SNOW GOING TODAY.
BLOCKED FLOW CURRENTLY IS KEEPING CLOUDS AND PRECIP FROM
SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS, BUT THIS SHOULD EASE COME THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS UPDATE...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A PROMINENT, STRONG JET CORE PLACED
OVER THE TN VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THIS LOW TO THE
NORTH TODAY.
BREEZY WEST WINDS RESULT, GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE ADDITIONAL ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE
WHITES AND WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. DID INCREASE SNOW RATIOS
SOMEWHAT GIVEN AMPLE SATURATION AND LIFT IN THE DGZ. ENSEMBLE
PROBS UTILIZING THE COBB METHOD DO ADVERTISE PERIODS OF RATIOS
GREATER THAN 20:1 THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
MOST LIKELY WHERE TERRAIN LIFT CAN ASSIST, WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE
ELEVATIONS 2000' AND ABOVE.
FROUDE VALUES RISE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR
BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE
PROFILE FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN NH
ISN'T SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH PRECIP, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
ASSISTANCE VIA SEEDER/FEEDER COME AFTERNOON.
SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO
SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT, AND THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS WELL AS REINFORCE MTN SNOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, BUT DRIER CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS WILL LIMIT QPF AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN DURATION. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW TAPER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES,
AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAY. HOWEVER, PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION AND THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP BRING LESS CLOUDS FOR THE COAST AND
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. GRADIENT WINDS KEEP THE DAY BREEZY
STILL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MONDAY EVENING UPDATE...01Z NBM IS IN AND CONTINUES THE GENERAL
IDEA OF DRY WEATHER THU/FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT,
AND THEN POSSIBLY A COASTAL LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON SUN
AND/OR MON. THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE AND WILL KEEP GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUSLY...
OVERVIEW: BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FLOW TURNS ZONAL WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF EAST COAST RIDGING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A HUDSON BAY
POLAR VORTEX BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH WITH AN ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO
THE UPPER PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR AREA SOMETIME
AROUND SUNDAY BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WHERE THE
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AND A POTENTIAL WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THE HOLIDAY NEXT
WEEK.
IMPACTS: NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
COLD TEMPERATURES IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING. WATCHING A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS STILL
BELOW 10% AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST DETAILS: THURSDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR ACCUMULATION, BUT A FEW INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD BE POSSIBLE. WARMING TREND STARTS BY
FRIDAY AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE HIGH TERRAIN CAUSING SOME ADIABATIC WARMING AND HIGHS
BREAKING FREEZING OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. SURFACE
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WITH THE WARMEST DAY IN WEEKS EXPECTED AS
HIGHS COULD TOP 40 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST AND SOUTHERN NH. COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. STILL LARGE SPREAD ON MONDAY NEXT
WEEK, BUT THERE COULD BE A QUICKLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE THERMAL GRADIENT THAT WILL BRING A SHOT OF COLD AIR.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LIKELY FOR HIE AND WESTERN ME
MTN TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXPECT W TO NW WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY WED. LIGHT SN OR SHSN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
CEILINGS. OUTSIDE OF HERE, MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT LEB OR AUG DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
NEARBY LOWER CEILINGS TO THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...OVERALL AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NW FLOW FOR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES THURSDAY
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SW ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS RESIDE MAINLY OFF THE NH SEACOAST
TODAY, BUT EXPAND NORTHWARD AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND TROUGH
TONIGHT. WED WILL FEATURE MORE WIDESPREAD NW WINDS, WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY INCLUDE THE BAYS AND INTRACOASTAL REGIONS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LEAST AS
OFFSHORE NW WINDS REMAIN STRONG BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH NW WINDS. LIGHTER WINDS ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ154.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...DUMONT/EKSTER
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