289
FXUS61 KGYX 150401
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1101 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE. UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
1045 PM UPDATE...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING
FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE.
6 PM UPDATE...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE OF
FLURRIES POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO ACCUMS
EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT REMAINS ON
TRACK AS COMPARED TO LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
PREVIOUSLY...
LATEST H5 RAP13 PRESSURE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CROWN OF ME WITH A DEPARTING SFC LOW
OVER THE MARITIMES. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PREVAILING ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. NORTHEAST RADAR MOSAIC IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME
WEAK RETURNS SPILLING SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW MPING
REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN A FEW SPOTS.
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A VORT MAX CROSSES BEFORE
ENDING LATER TONIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS
THEMSELVES, UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN MORE
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH READINGS NEAR
20 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN NH AND ALONG THE ME COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DUE TO THE LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORCE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
UPPER 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WANE
THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES BE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT OR BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
EVENING UPDATE...01Z NBM BLENDED IN WITH THE GOING LATEST
FORECAST YIELDS LITTLE CHANGE. STILL LOOKING AT A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER SAT/SUN WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
BRUSH OUR REGION WITH SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PREVIOUSLY...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO END OUT THE WORK WEEK. IT
WILL START OUT VERY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S
ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY SINGLE NUMBERS IN MANY AREAS FOR LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT.
A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION BEFORE EXITING OFF THE COAST.
12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT. THIS POLEWARD ADVECTING MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
READINGS DO BEGIN TO PLUMMET BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY HOWEVER. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THIS FEATURE AS A SURFACE LOW RIDES ALONG IT OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN COASTLINE. IN ANY CASE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ARCTIC COLD CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...UPSLOPE CLOUDS/-SN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KHIE THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO LLWS IS
ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM...OVERALL AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NW FLOW FOR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES THURSDAY
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SW ON SATURDAY. A SHARP FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
ARCTIC AIR TO REENTER THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS UP TO
30 KTS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
TO SMALL CRAFTS TONIGHT. ACROSS THE BAYS, A GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...A GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT SATURDAY,
MOSTLY LIKELY INTO SCA CRITERIA.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ151-153.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/TUBBS
SHORT TERM...TUBBS
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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