790
FXUS61 KGYX 151122
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
6AM UPDATE...OBS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP NW WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND THESE SHOULD BE GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH BY MID MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN ME
THIS MORNING, BUT THIS MAY ONLY BE A FEW FLURRIES AS THERE
REMAINS PLENTY OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND BREEZY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN BEHIND UPPER
TROUGH TODAY AS GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSLATES EASTWARD. FLOW
IS INITIALLY UNBLOCKED EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WILL TREND
TOWARDS BLOCKED FLOW. THIS LOCKS IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR
POINTS NW OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOWNSTREAM INTO
THE INTERIOR AND COAST.
UNDER THOSE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH, FLAKES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RANGE IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE LOCALLY, WITH A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF LIGHT, FLUFFY
SNOW EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN NH THROUGH TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOES THIN BY THIS EVENING WITH EQUALLY DECREASING LIFT.
ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLOWLY SLACKENS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE BRISK NW
FLOW WILL BRING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN TUESDAY, WITH
MID 20S ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR, TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
COMBINED WITH THE WIND, WIND CHILLS START IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS MORNING, CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS LATER.
DEPARTING CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT, BUT IT
MAY NOT BE UNTIL TOWARDS MIDNIGHT THAT THESE WINDS FINALLY
DECOUPLE. THIS MAKES TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPS A TRICKY FORECAST, AS
OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS COULD RESULT FOR
THE COAST AND INTERIOR. DID OPT TO GO LOWER THAN GUIDANCE HERE,
WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURS AM.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH CALMER WINDS THAN MID WEEK. FLOW DOES TURN SW AS
THIS RIDGE EXITS, AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN MORE MILD
TEMPS FOR END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS WED,
BUT WITHOUT A BREEZE IT SHOULD FEEL A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AT
LEAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
EVENING UPDATE...01Z NBM BLENDED IN WITH THE GOING LATEST
FORECAST YIELDS LITTLE CHANGE. STILL LOOKING AT A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER SAT/SUN WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
BRUSH OUR REGION WITH SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PREVIOUSLY...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY TO END OUT THE WORK WEEK.
A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION BEFORE EXITING OFF THE COAST.
12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT. THIS POLEWARD ADVECTING MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
READINGS DO BEGIN TO PLUMMET BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY HOWEVER. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THIS FEATURE AS A SURFACE LOW RIDES ALONG IT OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN COASTLINE. IN ANY CASE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ARCTIC COLD CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...UPSLOPE CLOUDS/-SN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KHIE TODAY WITH OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT
TONIGHT. NO LLWS IS ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM...OVERALL AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH
SATURDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SW ON SATURDAY. A SHARP FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
ARCTIC AIR TO REENTER THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY TO INCLUDE THE BAYS AND HARBORS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN THESE
WINDS DECREASING LATER THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGING PUSHING
INTO NEW ENGLAND HEADING INTO LATE WEEK.
LONG TERM...A GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT SATURDAY,
MOSTLY LIKELY INTO SCA CRITERIA.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...CANNON/EKSTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page