150
FXUS61 KGYX 151954
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
254 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING UNDER A
NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES
REMAINING IN THE MOUNTAINS. LATER TONIGHT, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. AS IT DOES SO, WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OVER THE REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER OF THE MATCH GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH A FEW OF THE SHELTERED NORTHERN VALLEYS
FALLING TO BELOW ZERO. SOUTHERNMOST AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE 10
TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS.
THIS TROUGH MAY TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LATEST NAMNEST SOLUTION
ALSO SUGGESTS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY ATTEMPT TO ROTATE
BACK TO THE MIDCOAST REGION ALONG AND NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH
WHICH WILL SET UP. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE: A COUPLE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MOST LIKELY NEAR MISSES RATHER THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MAKERS LOCALLY. MORE LIKELY IS VERY COLD AIR ARRIVING BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
IMPACTS: A CHANCE FOR SNOW MON WITH A FAST DEVELOPING STORM OUT
TO SEA. IF TRACK CAN TREND WESTWARD THIS MAY IMPACT ONE OR BOTH
OF THE COMMUTE TIMES MON. THE BIGGER AND MORE LIKELY IMPACT WILL
BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BY MIDWEEK. BOTH TUE
AND WED WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
FORECAST DETAILS: TROF PASSAGE FRI WILL ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY FLOW WILL BE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. A VERY BRIEF RIDGE AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM MAY
ALLOW ENOUGH OF A WINDOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FRI NIGHT
BEFORE CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. I DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
FULL NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING HOWEVER...SO TEMPS DO LEVEL
OFF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. IT WILL BE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW BASED ON NEAR SURFACE TEMPS...WITH MID LEVEL
TEMPS COOLING FAIRLY QUICKLY ALOFT. PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERY
HOWEVER AND QPF RATHER LIGHT...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT AS WELL.
THE FRONT WILL DRAG BEHIND THE FORCING ALOFT HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FOLLOW UP S/WV TROF ARRIVES NEAR THE COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND TRACK NORTHEAST.
PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK...SO THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE TRACK WILL HAVE AN OUTSIZED ROLE IN PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY BEARISH ON
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...BUT THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT
ACCUMULATION NEAR THE COAST. NBM POP AROUND CHANCE SHOULD
SUFFICE FOR THE TIME BEING.
FINALLY THERE IS A STRONG ENSEMBLE SIGNAL FOR A VERY COLD WAVE
TO ARRIVE AROUND MIDWEEK. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING MID LEVEL TEMPS
SOME 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JANUARY. NBM FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 20S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS ALSO SEEMS
FAIR GIVEN THE LEAD TIME AND ENSEMBLE SIGNALS.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND HIE IN SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AT HIE AND LEB THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY COME IN
OFF THE GULF OF MAINE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT TO RKD.
LONG TERM...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
EXTENDED. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SNOW THAT MAY LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS PRIMARILY THRU VIS. OVER THE
WEEKEND A FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA. PRECIP LOOKS SHOWERY AT
THIS TIME...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOCATION OF POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ADDITIONALLY A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY FORM MON AND PASS NEAR
THE GULF OF ME. THIS MAY ALSO SPREAD SNOW MON TOWARDS THE
COAST. BUT THIS STORM TRACK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND MAY PROVE TO
BE TOO FAR AWAY FOR SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...A CONTINUING NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND SCA CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THEREAFTER, WINDS DECREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTH
WEST LATER TONIGHT, THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS.
LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS PAST THE GULF OF ME WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRI. SCAS ARE LIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS AND POSSIBLE INSIDE THE BAYS DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW
CENTER TRACKS. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
EITHER WINDS OR SEAS AT OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS WITH AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY BRIEF BREAKS IN SCA CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LEGRO
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