969
FXUS61 KGYX 160914
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
414 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY
BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS TODAY. A
PROMINENT LOWER DECK ADVANCING OVER VT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO NH AND THEN WESTERN ME TODAY, BUT
HIGH CIRRUS IS FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THIS LOWER DECK BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THE ARRIVAL OF A WIND SHIFT AND DRIER AIR MEANS THE LIGHT SNOW
THAT'S BEEN FALLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NH OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NOTABLY MORE LIGHT TODAY, NEARLY CALM, AS
SLIGHT TROUGHING NEARS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
A BRIEF OVERLAP OF MOISTURE THIS EVENING COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO NH. WITH SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN, A DEEPER
LAYER OF MOISTURE FALLS OUT OF PHASE AFTER ONLY A COUPLE HOURS,
REDUCING PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY.
THE OTHER AREA OF PRECIP TO WATCH OVERNIGHT WILL BE OFFSHORE
SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE BASE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH NEARS
THE COAST, HREF MEMBERS HAVE BEEN ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS GENERATED OFF MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE WATERS.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THAT OVER LAND WHERE A SFC INVERSION
SHOULD SET UP OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID, WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES MAY
ATTEMPT TO FORM OVER THE GULF, RESULTING IN SLOW CYCLONIC
ROTATION. ITS POSSIBLE THIS ENDS UP BACKING THESE SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES TOWARDS THE COAST AND COASTAL ISLANDS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR HOW THIS DEVELOPS, AS TIMING WOULD BE NEAR THE FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
THIS WEAK SPOT OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY,
BRINGING SNOW CHANCES TO AN END BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE
LATE WEEK WARM UP WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
LIGHT WINDS, THIS SHOULD MAKE THE DAY FEEL PLEASANT FOR MID-
JANUARY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
05Z LONG TERM FORECAST UPDATE... LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE BASED FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
ROUND OF SHOWERS (MIXED WITH SNOW OVER THE NORTH) TO DEVELOP
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHWARD
FROM CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY. WE WILL THEN SIT IN
THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
FROM WEST TO EAST, USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO
FAR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUSLY...
KEY MESSAGE: A COUPLE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT MOST LIKELY NEAR MISSES RATHER THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MAKERS LOCALLY. MORE LIKELY IS VERY COLD AIR ARRIVING BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
IMPACTS: A CHANCE FOR SNOW MON WITH A FAST DEVELOPING STORM OUT
TO SEA. IF TRACK CAN TREND WESTWARD THIS MAY IMPACT ONE OR BOTH
OF THE COMMUTE TIMES MON. THE BIGGER AND MORE LIKELY IMPACT WILL
BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BY MIDWEEK. BOTH TUE
AND WED WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
FORECAST DETAILS: A VERY BRIEF RIDGE MAY ALLOW ENOUGH OF A
WINDOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FRI NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. I DO NOT ANTICIPATE A FULL NIGHT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING HOWEVER...SO TEMPS DO LEVEL OFF FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. IT WILL BE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW BASED ON NEAR SURFACE TEMPS...WITH MID LEVEL
TEMPS COOLING FAIRLY QUICKLY ALOFT. PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERY
HOWEVER AND QPF RATHER LIGHT...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT AS WELL.
THE FRONT WILL DRAG BEHIND THE FORCING ALOFT HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FOLLOW UP S/WV TROF ARRIVES NEAR THE COAST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND TRACK NORTHEAST.
PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK...SO THE
SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE TRACK WILL HAVE AN OUTSIZED ROLE IN PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY BEARISH ON
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...BUT THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT
ACCUMULATION NEAR THE COAST. NBM POP AROUND CHANCE SHOULD
SUFFICE FOR THE TIME BEING.
FINALLY THERE IS A STRONG ENSEMBLE SIGNAL FOR A VERY COLD WAVE
TO ARRIVE AROUND MIDWEEK. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING MID LEVEL TEMPS
SOME 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF JANUARY. NBM FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 20S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS ALSO SEEMS
FAIR GIVEN THE LEAD TIME AND ENSEMBLE SIGNALS.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MVFR
CEILINGS MOVE INTO NH THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SHSN POSSIBLE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOW WELL THIS MVFR DECK TRANSLATES INTO ME IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THINNING AND LIFTING, RESULTING
IN VFR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHSN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT JUST OFF OR ALONG THE ME COAST. THESE
COULD ALSO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS OR VIS JUST OUTSIDE OF PWM OR
RKD TERMINALS.
LONG TERM...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
EXTENDED. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SNOW THAT MAY LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS PRIMARILY THRU VIS. OVER THE
WEEKEND A FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA. PRECIP LOOKS SHOWERY AT
THIS TIME...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOCATION OF POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
ADDITIONALLY A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY FORM MON AND PASS NEAR
THE GULF OF ME. THIS MAY ALSO SPREAD SNOW MON TOWARDS THE
COAST. BUT THIS STORM TRACK IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND MAY PROVE TO
BE TOO FAR AWAY FOR SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS, AS WELL AS LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS. THIS LOW PULLS EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
EITHER WINDS OR SEAS AT OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS WITH AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY BRIEF BREAKS IN SCA CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...LEGRO/TUBBS
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