536
FXUS61 KGYX 170428
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1128 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR FLURRIES TONIGHT WITH
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
OFFSHORE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
1130 PM UPDATE... AREA WEBCAMS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NH AND EXTENDING INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ME AT THIS HOUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DEVELOPING INVERTED TROF. THERE ARE SOME STRONGER RADAR RETURNS
JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, WHICH IS LIKELY BEING
AIDED BY ADDED INSTABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN
TEMPERATURES. RECENT RADAR TRAJECTORIES DO SHOW SOME INLAND
PROPAGATION AND SHOULD THIS OCCUR THEN A COATING TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST. INCREASED POPS IN MOST SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WITH
THIS UPDATE AND ADDED IN SOME QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS.
PREVIOUSLY...
615 PM UPDATE... LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN H5 S/WV TROF AXIS. THE
INHERITED POP FCST ALIGNS WELL WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, JUST
LOADED IN THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SMOOTHED TRENDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUSLY...
WEAK TROF WILL PASS THE REGION TONIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL NY THERE
ARE SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 2SM OR LOWER...BUT
OVERALL IT IS PRETTY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WILL
SKIRT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WHERE I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP. ACCUMULATION
IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY HENCE THE LOW POP. I DID ADD SOME FLURRIES TO
THE NORTH OF THIS...AS THERE WILL PROBABLY BE FLAKES IN THE AIR
BUT NO HOPE OF MEASURING ANY LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY HOWEVER...AS IF CLOUDS THIN OUT THEY
COULD GET QUITE COLD AGAIN. FOR NOW I PLAYED IT CLOSER TO
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
UPPER FORCING WILL FOCUS A SURFACE TROF IN THE GULF OF ME FRI
WITH PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS HANGING NEAR THE COAST. WHILE THERE
MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE COAST MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS
OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON WHETHER THIS TROF FORMS
FARTHER NORTH NEAR MONHEGAN OR SOUTH NEAR THE ISLES OF SHOALS
I COULD SEE AN ISLAND PICKING UP SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. FOR
NOW GUIDANCE IS SPLITTING THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND
SO FOR NOW THIS ONLY LOOKS LIKE A MARITIME HAZARD.
HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT WAA WILL BE PICKING UP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OPTED FOR A LARGELY NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND AS WARMER AIR PUSHES NORTH...THOUGH A QUICK DROP JUST
AFTER SUNSET IS POSSIBLE BEFORE TEMPS STABILIZE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
05Z LONG TERM FORECAST UPDATE... LATEST ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL FROM A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS
INCREASED FOR THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A
POTENTIALLY PLOWABLE SNOWFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, THERE IS STRONG CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BELOW ZERO
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY AND WINDCHILLS APPROACHING 15-20 BELOW.
PREVIOUSLY...
OVERVIEW: THE CONTINENTAL SCALE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A NEGATIVE EPO
WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING IN THE NE PACIFIC INTO ALASKA. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH EMBEDDED WAVES BRINGING A COUPLE OF CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
DESCEND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SPREADS EAST BEHIND THE
MONDAY SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL DIVE DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK
OF THE PERSISTENT RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND DEPENDING ON THEIR
TRAJECTORY AROUND THE TROUGH, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL WINTER SYSTEMS LATE NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN OVER THE
PAST TWO WEEKS HAS BEEN ONE WHERE THESE SYSTEMS MISS TO OUR
SOUTH WITH THE PAST FEW ENSEMBLE RUNS FAVORING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS OR MISSES OUT TO SEA.
IMPACTS:
*LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLICK TRAVEL THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
*AN ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVING ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND -25F
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
DETAILS: SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING HIGHS
INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH
THERMAL PROFILES WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-3 INCHES. THE COLD WILL SETTLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S NORTH
TO 30S SOUTH.
THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF CONSOLIDATING AROUND A SOLUTION FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING SE OF CAPE COD SUNDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES ARE LOOSELY
CLUSTERING LOW LOCATIONS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE MULTI
MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE. BASED OFF A GENERAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT AND BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAVE
NUDGED UP POPS VS THE NBM FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS WILL OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SPREADS
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY. NEXT WEEK IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE COLDEST WEEK OF THE YEAR AND IT WILL LIKELY
FEEL LIKE IT WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AND MUCH
OF THE AREA SEEING A COUPLE NIGHTS WITH LOW WELL BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FRI NIGHT.
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS -RA
AND LOWER CIGS OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH KHIE AND KLEB SEEING
MORE IN THE WAY OF -SN THAN -RA. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE BRING -SN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
VFR LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THRU FRI NIGHT. A FOCUSED AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE FRI...AND VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IN
THESE SNOW SHOWERS WHEREVER THEY DO END UP FORMING. THESE WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CASHES LEDGE THRU THE DAY.
LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
BRING SCAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NNE WINDS INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE.
WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY BY MONDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHROETER/TUBBS
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