907
FXUS61 KGYX 192027
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
327 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES TONIGHT. THEN ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO THE REGION AND
LINGERS THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES RECOVER TOWARD LATE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 24 4HOURS APPROACHING CWA LATE
TODAY, AND CONTINUING TO PROVIDE FORECAST CHALLENGES. WHICH
SEEMS TO HAPPEN IN THESE SYSTEMS THAT FOLLOW ANOTHER ONE
CLOSELY, AS THE MODELS DON’T REALLY GET A HANG OF THE SECOND ONE
UNTIL THE FIRST ONE DOES IT’S THING. WILL BEGIN AROUND SUNSET
THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING FROM SE TO NW. AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY
FALL IN THE BETWEEN 7-8 PM AND 2-3 AM. WITH SNOW WINDING DOWN
AFTER THAT AND IT SHOULD ALL BE DONE BY SUNRISE, EXCEPT MAYBE IN
THE FAR E ZONES. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN BACK DOWNWARD ON THE
QPF IN GENERALLY ALL OF THE MODELS, AND THE SNOW TOTALS HAVE
BEEN BUMPED DOWN A BIT. WE’RE STILL IN THE BORDERLINE WARNING
AREA, AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS GO, SO NO CHANGES TO THE WWA
PRODUCTS, BUT A LOW WILL DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE SLR DURING THE
STORM, WHICH ARE FORECAST TO START IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE, AND
THEN INCREASING QUICKLY TO 16-20:1 BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. SO,
WILL BE MORE OF A FLUFF FACTOR LATER IN THE STORM, BUT WILL ALSO
BE AFFECTED BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WHICH COULD BREAK DOWN THE
DENDRITES AND LIMIT SNOW RATIOS. ALSO, WITH INCREASING WINDS
SOME BLOWING WILL OCCUR AND MAY ALSO CONTINUE AFTER THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ENDS. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE FILTERING IN THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND LOWS WILL BE EARLY MONDAY RANGING FROM ZERO TO +5 IN
THE MTNS, TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING, BUT A COLD NW WIND WILL CONTINUE
TO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE TEMPS ONLY RISING
ABOUT 5 DEGREES, TO NEAR +10 IN THE MTNS, AND INTO THE LOW 20S
IN THE S, WILL MAKE FOR A COLD DAY, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS -10
OR LESS IN THE MTNS, AND IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
S.
MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR, WITH A CONTINUED NW WIND AND VERY
COLD WITH LOWS AROUND -10 F IN THE N TO ZERO TO +5 IN THE S.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE -20 TO -30 IN
THE MTNS AND NEAR -10 IN THE S. MAY NEED SOME COLD WEATHER
PRODUCTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ARCTIC AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO CLOSER TO NORMAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
TUESDAY MORNING STARTS OUT VERY COLD WITH WINDS CHILLS WELL BELOW
ZERO IN THE MORNING HOURS, PERHAPS AS LOW AS -10 TO -15F SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND EVEN COLDER TO THE NORTH. IT WON'T BE QUITE AS
BREEZY AS MONDAY, BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE RAW THROUGH THE DAY
AS WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GUST TO 20-25 MPH, OFFERING LITTLE
RECOVERY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS CHILLS LIMITED TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WHILE WIND CHILLS
IN THE MOUNTAINS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO. MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND A NEARBY TROUGH AXIS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND PERHAPS ENOUGH TO SET UP GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SOME AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WHETHER IT'S RADIATIONAL COOLING OR A LIGHT BREEZE, IT WILL BE
VERY COLD WITH AND FEEL LIKE -5 TO -10F ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND, THOSE THAT DO RADIATE COULD GET
EVEN COLDER.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY TO THOSE OF TUESDAY,
BUT WINDS WILL COME DOWN A TOUCH MORE AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE NE. IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEFT, THE MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS DOWNSTREAM RECEIVING
MORE CLOUDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE AS COLD AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
AFTER THE COLD START ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES START TO RECOVER
THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND FOR TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS
ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH A WEAK WAVE ON
THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS MORE SUPPORT WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
MAJORITY OF THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN KEEPING A COASTAL LOW FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE WE SEE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM IT FRI-SAT. THE MOUNTAINS COULD END UP GETTING
SOME UPSLOPE ACTIVITY THOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR IN SN AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, COULD
SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR. BUT SHOULD GET BACK TO VFR
QUICKLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
NIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH W/NW WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAY TUES-WEDS. THE EXCEPTION
IS OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF UPSLOPE FLOW COULD PRODUCE MVFR
CEILINGS AT HIE FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A SNOW
SHOWER. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS TOWARD LATE WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...GALES DROP BACK TO SCA WINDS LATE TONIGHT, BUT
COULD SURGE UP AGAIN BRIEFLY MONDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY
BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, AND SHOULD BE WITH US THROUGH
MON NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY AROUND PEN BAY
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...WESTERLY FLOW COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON TUESDAY, BUT BY WEDNESDAY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
US. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW POTENTIALLY
INCREASING TO SCA LEVELS. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A DEVELOPING LOW
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WITH HOW THINGS LOOK RIGHT
NOW IS FOR THE LOW TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
WATERS, BUT IT STILL COULD BRING A PERIOD OF INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ018>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NHZ001>005.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NHZ006>015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR ANZ153.
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...COMBS
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