424
FXUS61 KGYX 201953
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
253 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MAKE
IT DOWN BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS WITH EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS.
COLD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. NO LARGE
STORMS FORESEEN AT THIS TIME INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DEEPENING LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NNE TOWARD LABRADOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE W. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SLACKEN OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME GRADIENT STILL EXISTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N ZONES. I THINK A LIMITED NUMBER OF
PLACES WILL DECOUPLE OVER NIGHT, BUT INCREASING CIRRUS AND THE
BOUNDARY LYR FLOW WILL PREVENT FREEFALL. STILL, THIS COLD AIR
MAS WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL MINS TONIGHT, AND COMBINED WITH
WHATEVER WIND THERE IS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO DROP INTO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTH, AND -25 TO -15 IN THE N
ZONES, WHERE AND ADVISORY IS EFFECT TONIGHT. AIR TEMP MINS RANGE
FROM AROUND -10 IN THE N TO ZERO TO +5 IN THE S. OTHER THAN SOME
CIRRUS SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY ESPECIALLY GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS
OF -20C OR LOWER, HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10 IN THE MTNS TO
NEAR 20 IN THE S, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MTNS, AND IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
S. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCH CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH AS WELL, BUT
I THINK IT WILL VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN FEATURE SOME WIND, BUT LESS THAN
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AIR TEMPS IN MOST PLACES. THIS
MAY END UP BEING A WASH WITH WIND CHILLS SIMILAR BOTH NIGHTS
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
WEDNESDAY, AND EVEN THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS, IT SHOULDN'T FEEL QUITE AS BAD OUT WITH
WINDS BEING A TAD LIGHTER AND SKIES MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY.
WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD, SKIES MAY BE CLEAR ENOUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING TO OFFER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING (AT LEAST FOR A
WHILE), ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRESH SNOW. IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW COLD
IT WILL GET THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY LEVEL OFF AT
SOME POINT AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THE HIGH EAST AND ALSO
BRINGS INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. FOR NOW, NORTHERN AREAS
ARE STILL FORECAST TO GET BELOW ZERO WHILE TEMPS MIGHT BE ABLE
TO STAY IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS, AND LOWS MAY OCCUR EARLY
IN THE NIGHT (OR EVEN THE EVENING).
THE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH LOOK TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY, AND WE COULD SEE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FROM
THIS, BUT VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH
MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 20S FOR MOST, BUT WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY
AGAIN.
ONCE THE WAVE PASSES LATE THURSDAY, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AND DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO MODERATE
BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE A COUPLE OF WAVES/FRONTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA, BUT THERE IS
LITTLE SUPPORT WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES TO DEVIATE FROM THE SLIGHT
CHANCE NBM POPS.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...SAW SOME OCCNL REDUCED VIS AT SOME TERMINALS IN
BLSN EARLIER, BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO COME DOWN SO
THIS LESS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY DRY AND VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE BRIEF INSTANCES OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND PERHAPS LIGHT SNOW ON THURSDAY, BUT CHANCES LOOK LOW. ONCE
THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES, POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS AND A LOW
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AT HIE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OPEN WATER THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY, AND SEAS REMAIN NEAR 5 FT, AND
ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY SLACKEN A BIT LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD COME UP
TO AROUND 25 KT AGAIN ON TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT TUE NIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY LOOKS TO BE WITH US INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME BETTER ICING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE
PEN BAY AREA.
LONG TERM...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WILL
PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THAT WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND A WEAK LOW CROSSES THE WATERS. THIS WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THURS-
THURS NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH FRI-SAT AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WATERS
AROUND SUNDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN AS WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ151.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ153.
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...COMBS
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