811
FXUS61 KGYX 161511
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1011 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM EARLY THIS WEEK WITH VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS THEN POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
10AM UPDATE...LONG DURATION STORM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THIS
MORNING. SLEET HAS BEGUN TO MIX IN WITH SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NH,
BUT BEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY CONTINUES TO BE NORTH OF HERE IN
CENTRAL NH AND SOUTHERN ME. NAM ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ACCURATELY
DEPICTS A A DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NOW,
AND THIS WILL BREAK THE CONSISTENT PRECIP RATES FOR A COUPLE
HOURS. INSTEAD, IT MAY BE POCKETS OF MIXED INTENSITY THROUGH AT
LEAST NOON TIME FOR SOUTHERN NH AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN ME. THIS
FILLS RIGHT BACK IN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER. MODIFIED SFC
TEMPS THROUGH TODAY AS THEY'VE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR. COASTAL FRONT IS
PROVIDING A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE SEACOAST OF NH AND JUST A
FEW MORE MILES INLAND. WHERE TEMPS FROM THE COAST TO EXETER ARE
REPORTING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S, A FEW MILES TOWARDS FREMONT
IS MUCH COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. ONCE UPPER LEVELS WARM,
THIS COULD CREATE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT IN ICE ACCUMULATION IN
SOUTHERN NH, BUT ANTECEDENT COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZE
WILL ALLOW LIQUID PRECIP TO STILL ADHERE TO TREES, LINES, AND
SURFACES.
FOCUS FOR REST OF MORNING WILL BE ON ADDRESSING WINDS FOR
MONDAY. WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS VERIFYING WELL ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING, CURRENT ICE FORECAST HOLDS IN
SOUTHERN NH. THIS AREA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE SOME OF THE
STRONGER GUSTS MON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTS TO 50 MPH AT TIMES
AND REMAINING ICE LOADING CREATES AN ELEVATED POWER OUTAGE
THREAT HERE.
6:50AM UPDATE... SNOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE NEXT ROUND ARRIVES. NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS THE STORM REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS...
THE FIRST ROUND OF LIGHTER SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AT THIS HOUR, WITH THE STEADIEST SNOW EXTENDING IN A BAND
FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE AND THE MIDCOAST.
LIGHTER SNOW IS STILL FALLING IN MOST AREAS WITH MAINLY FAR
NORTHERN LOCATIONS NOT YET IN ON THE ACTION.
THE NEXT ROUND OF STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIP CAN BE SEEN ON
RADAR MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. IT LIKELY REACHES
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE, AND CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IT'S WITH THIS BAND
THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE EXPERIENCED FOR A FEW
HOURS, AND THEN PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SLEET FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
THE SLEET SPREADS NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MOUNTAINS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE COASTAL FRONT CAN BE SEEN SITTING JUST OFFSHORE, WITH EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE ISLE OF SHOALS, AND NORTHEAST WINDS
ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE FRONT LIKELY MAKES IT JUST ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NH SEACOAST, THE BEACHES OF SOUTHERN MAINE, AND INTO
THE MIDCOAST. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT REMAINS
IMPORTANT, SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR A NARROW AREA OF FREEZING
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND FOCUS AREA IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, ESPECIALLY INTO THE MONADNOCKS,
WHERE A DEEPER LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT REACHES.
OVERALL THERE HAVE BEEN VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE
NARROW AREA OF FORECAST ICE HAS REMAINED MOSTLY THE SAME, WITH
THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE BEING TO BRING THE ICE A FEW MORE MILES
INLAND ALONG THE MIDCOAST. ALSO, THE MIDCOAST WAS UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING OVERNIGHT AS MORE MOISTURE FROM THE FIRST
ROUND OF SNOW REACHED INTO THE AREA, AND A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
ICE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER WITH A
STRONGER GRADIENT NEAR THE COAST THAN MOST MODELS CAN RESOLVE.
THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PUSH ABOVE
FREEZING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST, FOLLOWED BY A FALL BACK BELOW
FREEZING AND TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS PRESSURE FALLS
CONTINUE OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WITH THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FALL WITH
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT PULLS AWAY. INLAND AREAS THAT TRANSITION TO SLEET MAY END AS
A LITTLE SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP SHUTS OFF, AND AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY END AS A BIT OF SLEET. TEMPS FALL INTO THE TEENS
OVERNIGHT, FREEZING UP ANY LINGERING LIQUID IN THE SNOWPACK
TOWARD THE COAST, AND ALSO LOCKING UP ANY ICE THAT HAS ACCRETED
THROUGH THE EVENT.
WESTERLY WINDS STEADILY PICK UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL
BE EXACTLY WHERE THE GREATEST ICE ACCRETION OCCURRED, AND HOW
MUCH FELL. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE
AN INCREASE IN DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES IN THE AREAS
WITH THE MOST ICE AS THE WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES, THE ICE ISN'T GIVEN A CHANCE TO MELT, SO THEN THE
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ICE IS ABLE TO SHED OFF THE TREES WITHOUT
DAMAGE. THESE FACTORS REMAIN UNKNOWNS, SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THESE FACTORS AS THE EVENT EVOLVES.
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY,
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME OF THE STRONGEST GUSTS
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE LINGERING ICE
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS WELL. A COLD DAY
IS EXPECTED, WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH, TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COASTLINE. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
LATE EVENING UPDATE...
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH WINDS ALIGNED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE. AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE VERY
SLOW TO EXIT EASTERN CANADA BY TUESDAY. THE WESTERLY GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS BY
TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN SOME AREAS.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE LOW AS WELL.
AFTER A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT APPEAR TO STEER THIS SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIMITED POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THEREAFTER,
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
PREV DISC...
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EXITS THE REGION, A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL FORM IN ITS WAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR A GUSTY DAY ON MONDAY, WITH MANY PLACES LIKELY SEEING
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH, POSSIBLY HIGHER. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
CARRY A THREAT OF BRINGING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE LIGHT. UNBLOCKED FLOW, WITH LOW-
LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY A LITTLE TOO DRY TO PROMOTE MEANINGFUL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIND
GUSTS FINALLY RELAXING.
ON WEDNESDAY, A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST US WILL
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SPECIFIC TRACK OF
THE LOW, WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS.
AT THIS TIME, THE FARTHEST NORTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO BRING SOME
MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW
CONTAINED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS THE LOW HEADS OFF TO SEA, HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND MAY ALLOW FOR
A TRANQUIL NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN SNOW
THIS MORNING, THEN SNOW MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO SLEET FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FZRA IS
THEN LIKELY AT MHT, CON, PSM, PWM, AND RKD LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY, EXCEPT AT HIE. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AT HIE WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY VFR ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. STRONG
AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WITH
GUSTS OF 30-40KT LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS.
LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE VIS AT HIE. AFTER TUESDAY,
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY, WITH
A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING IN GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING EASTERLY
GALES. THIS LOW DEEPENS AS AT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT. WESTERLY GALES, AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS, ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS.
LONG TERM...HIGH SEAS OF 5-9FT IN THE BAYS, 9-15FT SEAS IN THE
OPEN WATERS AND WESTERLY STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY,
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS AND
WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT 15-25KTS AND 2-6FT SEAS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SLACKEN FURTHER DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ012>014-
019>021-024-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ018-022-023-
025>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NHZ003>015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR/CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...CANNON/CORNWELL
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