696
FXUS61 KGYX 170411
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1111 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
THESE CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY
APPROACHING NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
11:10PM UPDATE... FOCUSED ON A HEAVY BURST OF SNOW THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THIS HOUR. LEFTOVER CONVECTION
FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SCOURED OUT THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AS IT MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, FLIPPING
SLEET OVER TO SNOW, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MAINE COAST. HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR IS OCCURING WITH THIS AREA OF SNOW,
AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. THE SNOW
HAS ALMOST MOVED OUT OF THE SEACOAST, AND WILL TAKE A FEW MORE
HOURS TO MOVE THROUGH THE MAINE COASTAL PLAIN.
700 PM UPDATE... IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PASSES OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE. NORTHEAST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PRECIPITATION
STRETCHING FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO MAINE, ALTHOUGH A FEW
BREAKS EXIST IN BETWEEN DUE TO A BIT OF A DRY SLOT. FREEZING
RAIN IS NOW BEING REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH, WHICH
FITS WELL WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHER
THAN MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST, IT REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUSLY...
LARGE WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO TREAD NORTH, WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. SNOW AND SLEET
HAVE BEEN THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPES TODAY. WHILE THERE IS
STILL TIME, FREEZING RAIN HAS REMAINED AT POINTS JUST SOUTH AND
WEST. COLD AIR HAS PROVED TO BE VERY RESILIENT THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN A FEW MOMENTS TODAY WHERE
A BETTER CC MELTING SIGNAL COULD BE DEPICTED ON REGIONAL RADAR,
PROVEN BY SLEET REPORTS FROM AUTOMATED SOURCES AND TRAINED
SPOTTERS. FORECAST ICE AMOUNTS HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED AND
SHIFTED SOUTH/FURTHER TO THE COAST, BUT NOT BY MUCH. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EXITS AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUING
(FOR A FEW DAYS) IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT, WINDS SHIFT WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE DO INCREASE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, BUT THE MAIN
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TONIGHT
TO 25 OR 30 MPH WILL FIRST MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NH, AND THEN
SOUTHERN ME EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS IT
HANGS UP IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PILES UP OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THE STRONGEST
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MONDAY, WITH JETS ALIGNING OVER CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND.
MIXING DEPTH INCREASES TO AROUND 850MB MONDAY MORNING, SPIKING
WINDS ACROSS THE CWA AS THIS LOW JET PUSHES 60 KT. HREF SURFACE
WIND PROBS SHOW A GOOD SIGNAL OF WINDS PUSHING 40 TO 50 MPH FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE BEST MIXING ATTAINED ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HERE, GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER LOCAL MAXIMUM MAY BE THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAIN
HOW FREQUENT THESE GUSTS MAY BE, BUT CONSIDERED THE THREAT FOR
ICE ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON, DECIDED A HIGH WIND WARNING
WOULD SUFFICE FOR SOUTHERN NH. ELSEWHERE, A WIND ADVISORY WAS
POSTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THESE WINDS HOLD INTO
THE EVENING. WHILE THE JET REMAINS OVERHEAD, MIXING SHOULD
BECOME MORE SHALLOW, MISSING THE CORE OF THESE HIGHER WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
04Z LONG TERM UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
STRETCH. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST MID-LATE WEEK.
PREVIOUSLY... PATTERN OVERVIEW: A BROAD TROUGH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING 500MB LOW WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY A RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BEFORE ANOTHER CLOSED 500MB LOW MOVES IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS COMES IN TOO LATE TO PHASE WITH SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE, BUT WILL STILL
PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR MINOR SNOWFALL IN PARTS OF OUR AREA
THURSDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES LOOK TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE MAY
PRECLUDE MUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER.
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* THE PATTERN LOOKS QUIETER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GLOBAL MODELS
TREND TOWARD A MISS FROM A WINTER STORM ON THURSDAY, BUT SOME SNOW
REACHING OUR AREA CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
DETAILS: TUESDAY: A TIGHT, BUT SLACKENING, PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS INTO THE GULF OF
ST. LAWRENCE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE WELL MIXED INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH WILL STILL BE ON
THE TABLE. NORTHWEST WINDS AND JUST ENOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE MAY
SUSTAIN SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER DURING THE DAY AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY LIMITED TO
THE LOW 20S AND TEENS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE NORTH. ONCE WIND CHILL IS FACTORED IN EXPECT IT TO FEEL
MORE LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH AND BELOW ZERO NORTH. WINDS
SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE CLEARING SO TEMPERATURES
FALL WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. MORE
CLOUDS IN THE NORTH MAY END UP KEEPING TEMPERATURES AROUND, OR
JUST BELOW ZERO, MAKING FOR A PRETTY UNIFORM TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AREAWIDE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE PLEASANT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN BRINGING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL WARM 850MB
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -7C WHICH SHOULD HELP MOST OF THE AREA
REALIZE UPPER 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. POORLY TIMED CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAY KEEP WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LIMITED
TO THE LOWER 20S. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA, SO EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, IF NOT
A FEW DEGREES WARMER. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THURSDAY AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT WE MISS OUT ON A SIGNIFICANT STORM AS THE
GLOBAL MODEL SUITES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
TRENDING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EASTWARD. HOWEVER, WITH A 500 MB LOW
DIVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE
SYSTEM, THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE A PORTION OF OUR AREA SEES
SNOW, BUT THE EXTENT OF IT IS A BIG QUESTION MARK ESPECIALLY
WITH PLENTY OF TIME FOR TRENDS TO CONTINUE OR CHANGE. FOR NOW,
CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEMS REASONABLE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW, WE COULD SEE
SOME BREEZY WINDS ON FRIDAY, BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS WE COULD
SEE A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. OF COURSE, THE TRADEOFF FOR THE CALM AND
CLEAR CONDITIONS IS NIGHTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, BUT THAT IS
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 6Z. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE HIE WHICH WILL STILL
HAVE ONGOING MVFR/IFR IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS BECOME WEST
OVERNIGHT. THESE DO GET GUSTY, BUT MORESO MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 40 KT CAN BE ACHIEVED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS MONDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 OR 50 KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS. WINDS SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT,
BUT REMAIN GUSTY.
LONG TERM...CEILINGS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. A LARGE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR
EAST ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO THE
AREA. CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO VFR FRIDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
DECREASE AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS 20-25KTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. GALES CONTINUE TONIGHT, BECOMING STORM FORCE
MONDAY. THESE CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY WILL SEE SEAS STILL 5-8 FT, BUT DECREASING AS
THE DAY GOES ON AND LIKELY FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE THE SAME, STARTING TUESDAY AS WESTERLY GALES
BUT SLACKENING TO LESS THEN 25KTS BY WEDENSDAY MORNING. SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WINDS WILL RAMP BACK
UP TO 25-30KTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ012>014-
019>021-024-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ018-022-023-
025>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NHZ001>006-009-010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NHZ003>015.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NHZ007-008-011>015.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ154.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR/TUBBS
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...BARON/TUBBS
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