459
FXUS61 KGYX 171612
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1112 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY TODAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIKELY PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BUILD
IN DURING THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
11AM UPDATE...JUST SOME CHANGES TO SURFACE WINDS THROUGH TODAY,
MAINLY TO SHOW PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS ENTERING THIS
AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE 60+ MPH GUSTS IN MA THIS MORNING. JET AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL PIVOT NORTH AS WE ENTER THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE GYX 12Z UPPER AIR FLIGHT SAW 30 KT JUST
ABOVE 850MB, AN ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF MANCHESTER, NH THIS
MORNING FOUND 55 KT WINDS. ONCE MIXING BEGAN, VALUES IN
SOUTHERN NH HAVE BEEN OUTPERFORMING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
850MB JET SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING, AND WILL BE
COUNTING ON DECREASES IN MIXING HEIGHT TO AVOID EVEN STRONGER
GUSTS.
7:00AM UPDATE... NO NOTABLE CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO PICK
UP MORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TODAY.
PREVIOUS...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIP DEEPENS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME,
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAKES FOR A WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE, WITH A WIND ADVISORY ELSEWHERE.
ICE ACCRETION ENDED UP BEING MINIMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SETTING UP SOUTH AND
WEST OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS HAS EASED CONCERNS OF
LINGERING ICE COMBING WITH THE STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT GUSTS ON
THEIR OWN WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK TREE LIMBS AND
CAUSE POWER OUTAGES, WHICH REMAINS TODAY'S MAIN CONCERN.
A FLUFFY 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AFTER THE SLEET IN MANY AREAS
LAST NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF THE STORM. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS,
A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR TODAY IS BLOWING SNOW. THIS WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT ON AND AROUND LAKES, OPEN FIELDS, AND ANY OTHER
EXPOSED AREAS. THE BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE MOST COMMON THROUGH
THE MORNING AS THE WINDS FIRST INCREASE. SNOWMOBILERS AND
ANYONE VENTURING OUT ON TO THE FROZEN LAKES TODAY SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS AND DISORIENTING WHITE OUT CONDITIONS.
ALONG WITH THE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW, TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD
TODAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
NORTH, TO THE LOW TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
THE WIND REMAINS GUSTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT EASES FROM
IT'S PEAK STRENGTH TODAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, AND
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH THE WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED, RADIATIONAL COOLING IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE AREA, BUT NORTHERN
AREAS SEE THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURE
RESULTING IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BELOW -20 DEGREES. FOR
THIS REASON, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WINDY DAY, WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO
BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY. GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW, WITH THE STRONGEST BEING FOUND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER TOMORROW, WITH NORTHERN AREAS
IN THE LOW TO MID SINGLE DIGITS, AND THE COASTLINE STRUGGLING TO
REACH 20 DEGREES. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL, WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
04Z LONG TERM UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
STRETCH. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST MID-LATE WEEK.
PREVIOUSLY... PATTERN OVERVIEW: A BROAD TROUGH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING 500MB LOW WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY A RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BEFORE ANOTHER CLOSED 500MB LOW MOVES IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS COMES IN TOO LATE TO PHASE WITH SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE, BUT WILL STILL
PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR MINOR SNOWFALL IN PARTS OF OUR AREA
THURSDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES LOOK TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE MAY
PRECLUDE MUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER.
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* THE PATTERN LOOKS QUIETER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GLOBAL MODELS
TREND TOWARD A MISS FROM A WINTER STORM ON THURSDAY, BUT SOME SNOW
REACHING OUR AREA CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
DETAILS: TUESDAY: A TIGHT, BUT SLACKENING, PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS INTO THE GULF OF
ST. LAWRENCE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE WELL MIXED INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH WILL STILL BE ON
THE TABLE. NORTHWEST WINDS AND JUST ENOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE MAY
SUSTAIN SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER DURING THE DAY AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY LIMITED TO
THE LOW 20S AND TEENS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE NORTH. ONCE WIND CHILL IS FACTORED IN EXPECT IT TO FEEL
MORE LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH AND BELOW ZERO NORTH. WINDS
SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE CLEARING SO TEMPERATURES
FALL WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. MORE
CLOUDS IN THE NORTH MAY END UP KEEPING TEMPERATURES AROUND, OR
JUST BELOW ZERO, MAKING FOR A PRETTY UNIFORM TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AREAWIDE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE PLEASANT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN BRINGING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL WARM 850MB
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -7C WHICH SHOULD HELP MOST OF THE AREA
REALIZE UPPER 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. POORLY TIMED CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAY KEEP WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LIMITED
TO THE LOWER 20S. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA, SO EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, IF NOT
A FEW DEGREES WARMER. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THURSDAY AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT WE MISS OUT ON A SIGNIFICANT STORM AS THE
GLOBAL MODEL SUITES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
TRENDING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EASTWARD. HOWEVER, WITH A 500 MB LOW
DIVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH THE
SYSTEM, THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE A PORTION OF OUR AREA SEES
SNOW, BUT THE EXTENT OF IT IS A BIG QUESTION MARK ESPECIALLY
WITH PLENTY OF TIME FOR TRENDS TO CONTINUE OR CHANGE. FOR NOW,
CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEMS REASONABLE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW, WE COULD SEE
SOME BREEZY WINDS ON FRIDAY, BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS WE COULD
SEE A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. OF COURSE, THE TRADEOFF FOR THE CALM AND
CLEAR CONDITIONS IS NIGHTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, BUT THAT IS
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, EXCEPT
AT HIE WHERE UPSLOPE WINDS BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT
LEB. STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH GUSTS
OF 30-40KT AT ALL TERMINALS. LOCALIZED BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
IS LIKELY TODAY WITH THE WINDS. CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS LOWERING CLOSER TO 25-30KT. VFR
PREVAILS TOMORROW AS WELL, EXCEPT AT HIE WHERE MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY PREVAIL. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN GUSTY, WITH GUSTS OF
25-35KT LIKELY.
LONG TERM...CEILINGS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. A LARGE SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR EAST ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO THE
AREA. CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO VFR FRIDAY. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
DECREASE AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS 20-25KTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WESTERLY STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
BAYS, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE AT TIMES. THESE CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK TOMORROW, AND ONLY GRADUALLY EASE TO
LOW END GALES BY LATE TOMORROW. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS AS WELL TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY WILL SEE SEAS STILL 5-8 FT, BUT DECREASING AS
THE DAY GOES ON AND LIKELY FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE THE SAME, STARTING TUESDAY AS WESTERLY GALES
BUT SLACKENING TO LESS THEN 25KTS BY WEDENSDAY MORNING. SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WINDS WILL RAMP BACK
UP TO 25-30KTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
018>028-033.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001>006-009-010.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ007-008-
011>015.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR/CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...BARON/TUBBS
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