826
FXUS61 KGYX 180018
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
718 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY THIS WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE
LIKELY PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
710 PM...WILL LEAVE ALL WIND PRODUCTS AS THEY ARE, AND
RECONSIDER CHANGES ON THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. STILL SEEING
SOME NEAR WARNING PEAK GUSTS IN S NH, SO NOT READY TO PULL THE
PLUG THE YET, ALTHOUGH, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME DURING THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE THE MTNS, LOWERING
SKY COVER A LITTLE.
PREVIOUSLY...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN PLENTIFUL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH SPRINKLED IN.
THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL LIMIT GREATER MOMENTUM TRANSFER INTO
THE EVENING, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG GUSTS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE STRONG JET DOES REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT, AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN IN STRONG WINDS.
CAA COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS BELOW
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. TEENS BELOW ZERO COULD BE ON
TAP TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NH AS
TEMPS BEGIN TO SLOWLY WARM.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WITH 850MB WINDS AROUND 50-60KT STILL OVERHEAD COME TUESDAY
MORNING, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A QUICK BURST OF WIND GUSTS EARLY
TO MID MORNING. IT WILL STILL BE A BREEZY DAY, BUT NOT AS STRONG
AS TODAY. THESE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
KEPT MENTION OF MOUNTAIN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING, WITH
OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS NW CAA CONTINUES.
WIND CHILLS WON'T BE AS LOW WITH A LESSER GUST FACTOR. HOWEVER,
COULD SEE SOME VALUES NEARING MINUS 20 FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PATTERN OVERVIEW: A BRIEF RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
500MB LOW APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ATTEMPT TO PHASE
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC, BUT A LITTLE LATE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS WELL AS A MORE PROMINENT TROUGH ON
SUNDAY, BUT A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM
APPROACH FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* THE PATTERN LOOKS QUIETER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GLOBAL
MODELS TREND TOWARD A MISS FROM A WINTER STORM ON THURSDAY,
BUT SOME SNOW REACHING OUR AREA CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
DETAILS: WEDNESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
20S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
IS WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST, AND MAY LIMIT THAT AREA TO THE LOW 20S. NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. TIMING OF
THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL EFFECT LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THE CURRENT PROGRESSION KEEPS THINGS CLEAR ENOUGH TO DROP
AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL HAVE HELD ON TO CLOUDS MOST OF THE
DAY, LIKELY ONLY BOTTOMS OUT JUST EITHER SIDE OF ZERO AS WELL.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL
BE HEADING OUT TO SEA THURSDAY, BUT HOPE FOR SOME FLAKES ISN'T
TOTALLY LOST. WHILE THE 500MB LOW IS A LITTLE LATE IN ITS
PHASING WITH THIS SYSTEM, IT STILL MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT COULD STRETCH BACK TO COASTAL AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW AND TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. THIS IS
TRUE FOR QPF AS WELL AS MOISTURE ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LIMITED SO AS IT STANDS NOW ANY FLAKES WOULD AMOUNT TO
A DUSTING AT BEST. DUE TO THESE TRENDS I TRIMMED BACK POPS EVEN
MORE, WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE NOW ONLY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF YORK COUNTY. THE MORE LIKELY
SENSIBLE WEATHER WE GET OUT OF THIS SYSTEM IS BREEZY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE, MAYBE 25-30 MPH, ON FRIDAY AS IT MAKES A NORTHWARD
TURN INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS DOMINANT AT THE SURFACE, HELPING TO KICK START A
WARMING TREND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND A MORE PROMINENT TROUGH
ROTATE THROUGH, BUT WITH NO SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LITTLE MOISTURE,
THIS LIKELY RESULTS IN JUST INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT TIMES. THE NEXT
INTERESTING FEATURE IS ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE THE MODELS
DON'T QUITE AGREE ON. THE EURO IS THE OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT WITH
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM, WHEREAS THE GFS AND CMC HAVE MUCH MORE
DEVELOPED COASTAL LOWS. TEMPERATURE IS ANOTHER STICKING POINT AS
THE EURO AND CMC BRING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION, BUT THE
GFS CONTINUES WITH THE WARM UP. NOTHING MORE THAN OBSERVATIONS
AT THIS TIME RANGE, BUT THIS IS A GOOD PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...GUSTS AROUND 40 KT WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN. MVFR CONTINUES FOR HIE, WITH MOST OTHER
POINTS GOING CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WINDS GUST 25 - 30 KT OVERNIGHT,
WITH A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF AROUND 40 KT TUES MORNING BEFORE
WINDS SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM...A TREND TOWARD MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST. OTHERWISE, VFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS 20-25KTS, BUT
OTHERWISE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS/HARBORS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TOWARDS
THE MIDCOAST WATERS AND PENOBSCOT BAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO SLACKEN TOMORROW, BUT GALES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ONCE STORMS SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-4 FT THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS STAY BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY, BUT WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA. WIND GUSTS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
SLACKEN BELOW 25 KTS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
018>028-033.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001>006-009-010.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ007-008-
011>015.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-
151.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ152>154.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...BARON
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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