327
FXUS61 KGYX 181801
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
101 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY THIS WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUING TODAY. WINDS GRADUALLY EASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY PASSES WELL SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TREND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1PM UPDATE...BASED ON OBSERVATIONS, HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING OVER CASCO AND PENOBSCOT BAY FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. NO
OTHER CHANGES OTHERWISE.
940AM UPDATE...PRIMARY UPDATE WAS ALIGNING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
WITH OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, JUST A REFRESH OF MARINE
HEADLINES.
6:40AM UPDATE... BROUGHT UP TEMPS A BIT EARLY THIS MORNING BASED
ON TRENDS AS THE WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE OVERNIGHT HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER, WHILE WIND CHILLS ARE BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE AREA. OTHERWISE, NO NOTABLE CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS...
ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY, BUT WINDS WON'T BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. WESTERLY GUSTS GENERALLY LOOK TO
BE IN THE 40- 50 MPH RANGE IN MOST AREAS TODAY. THE STRONGEST
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW HAMPSHIRE, AS WELL AS ACROSS YORK COUNTY IN MAINE. AREAS
EAST OF AND DOWNWIND OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE AS STRONG OF WINDS AS AREAS FURTHER SOUTH, BUT GUSTY
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAIN WINDY AGAIN AS WELL.
WIND CHILLS HAVE DIPPED BELOW -20 ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS IN
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AREAS, WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. WIND CHILLS ONLY RISE SLIGHTLY
INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS DURING THE DAYTIME IN THESE AREAS AS
TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS. SCATTERED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS AGAIN TODAY, WITH AN UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF INCREASES
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS SPEND THE
DAY RANGING FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW 20S ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE MOST
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
WINDS GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT WIND
CHILLS LIKELY FLIRT WITH -20 DEGREES AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING. AS WINDS EASE, POCKETS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT, BRINGING LOWS BELOW ZERO. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE DOWNWIND OF THE WHITES INTO THE
FRYEBURG AND LEWISTON AREAS. NORTHERN VALLEYS ALSO SEE SOME OF
THE COLDER LOWS DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIRMASS, BUT WINDS LIKELY
TAKE LONGER TO RELAX IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES START TO WARM A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS HIGH
PRESSURE REACHES IT'S MAXIMUM INFLUENCE FOR THE WEEK. THE HIGH
REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, KEEPING A COOL
WESTERLY FLOW ONGOING. BUT WITH A BIT OF AIRMASS MODIFICATION
AND INCREASED SUNSHINE, TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO LOOKS TO BE MORE ISOLATED
TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
1110 PM...LONG TERM UPDATE INCLUDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES
AS WE SEE QUIET PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS COASTAL SYSTEMS
PASS OR DEVELOP TOO FAR S AND E TO HAVE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT.
COULD STILL SOME SHSN IN THE S LATE THU OR THU NIGHT, BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW. ALSO, SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON
SAT AS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR N, BUT THAT ABOUT IT.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND START WED AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PREVIOUSLY...
PATTERN OVERVIEW: A BRIEF RIDGE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
500MB LOW APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ATTEMPT TO PHASE
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC, BUT A LITTLE LATE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS WELL AS A MORE PROMINENT TROUGH ON
SUNDAY, BUT A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM
APPROACH FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* THE PATTERN LOOKS QUIETER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GLOBAL
MODELS TREND TOWARD A MISS FROM A WINTER STORM ON THURSDAY,
BUT SOME SNOW REACHING OUR AREA CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
DETAILS: WEDNESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY ONGOING SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TO A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 20S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST, AND MAY LIMIT THAT AREA TO THE LOW 20S. NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. TIMING
OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL EFFECT LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THE CURRENT PROGRESSION KEEPS THINGS CLEAR ENOUGH TO
DROP AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL HAVE HELD ON TO CLOUDS MOST
OF THE DAY, LIKELY ONLY BOTTOMS OUT JUST EITHER SIDE OF ZERO AS
WELL.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST
WILL BE HEADING OUT TO SEA THURSDAY, BUT HOPE FOR SOME FLAKES
ISN'T TOTALLY LOST. WHILE THE 500MB LOW IS A LITTLE LATE IN ITS
PHASING WITH THIS SYSTEM, IT STILL MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT COULD STRETCH BACK TO COASTAL AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW AND TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. THIS IS
TRUE FOR QPF AS WELL AS MOISTURE ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LIMITED SO AS IT STANDS NOW ANY FLAKES WOULD AMOUNT TO
A DUSTING AT BEST. DUE TO THESE TRENDS I TRIMMED BACK POPS EVEN
MORE, WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE NOW ONLY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF YORK COUNTY. THE MORE LIKELY
SENSIBLE WEATHER WE GET OUT OF THIS SYSTEM IS BREEZY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE, MAYBE 25-30 MPH, ON FRIDAY AS IT MAKES A NORTHWARD
TURN INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS DOMINANT AT THE SURFACE, HELPING TO KICK
START A WARMING TREND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND A MORE
PROMINENT TROUGH ROTATE THROUGH, BUT WITH NO SYNOPTIC FORCING
AND LITTLE MOISTURE, THIS LIKELY RESULTS IN JUST INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AT TIMES. THE NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS ANOTHER COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE THE MODELS DON'T QUITE AGREE ON. THE EURO IS THE
OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT WITH A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM, WHEREAS THE GFS
AND CMC HAVE MUCH MORE DEVELOPED COASTAL LOWS. TEMPERATURE IS
ANOTHER STICKING POINT AS THE EURO AND CMC BRING COLDER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION, BUT THE GFS CONTINUES WITH THE WARM UP.
NOTHING MORE THAN OBSERVATIONS AT THIS TIME RANGE, BUT THIS IS A
GOOD PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW,
EXCEPT AT HIE WHERE MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
TONIGHT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AGAIN TODAY, WITH
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30- 40KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS THEN EASE TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20KT ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...A TREND TOWARD MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST.
OTHERWISE, VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL. FRIDAY MAY SEE WINDS
20-25KTS, BUT OTHERWISE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WESTERLY GALES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER TO SCA LEVELS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO LOWER TO BELOW
SCA LEVELS BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN WATERS THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-4 FT THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS STAY BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY, BUT WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OUT TO SEA. WIND GUSTS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
SLACKEN BELOW 25 KTS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ005>015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ153.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR/COMBS
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...BARON/CEMPA
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