613
FXUS61 KGYX 190348
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1048 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY THIS WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A
MODERATING TREND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
1045 PM UPDATE... GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING AT THIS
HOUR WITH SOME GUSTS STILL AT AROUND 35 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE COLD AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IS
SENDING WIND CHILLS TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BUT
THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
WENT AHEAD AND CONVERTED THE REMAINING GALE
WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN WIND
GUSTS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT MOST WILL BE WEAKER.
PREVIOUSLY...
UPDATED TEMPERATURES, WINDS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS FOR THE NEAR
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OUTSIDE OF A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH THIS
EVENING.
PREV DISC...
BREEZY BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, BUT THEN WINDS WILL THEN STEADILY
EASE THROUGH TONIGHT (ALTHOUGH STILL 20-25 MPH AT TIMES). LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A 500MB SHORTWAVE DRAPED ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR, SO FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WITH PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES HERE AND THERE. IN THE MOUNTAINS,
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINING.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH ENOUGH OF A BREEZY TO BRING WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS -10F SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND -15F TO -20F IN THE
MOUNTAINS (EXCEPT MUCH LOWER GOING UP IN ELEVATION).
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A WEAK UPPER LOW FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR FAR
NORTHERN AREAS (WITH UPSLOPE FLOW STILL IN PLACE TOO).
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
PULLS FARTHER AWAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
RELAX AND RESULT IN LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
WE STILL MAY SEE GUSTS 25-30 MPH IN THE MORNING BEFORE A
DOWNWARD TREND GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COMPARATIVELY, IT WILL
PROBABLY FEEL PRETTY NICE OUT COMPARED TO TODAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE LIGHTER WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 20S, EXCEPT
SOME TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING,
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE SOUTH THAT END UP LEVELING OFF COOLING AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT.
I HAVE BLENDED IN SOME COOLER GUIDANCE TO BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT BUT
HAVEN'T GONE TOO LOW DUE TO THE POTENTIAL INCREASING CLOUDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
04Z LONG TERM FORECAST UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUSLY...
KEY MESSAGES:
* COASTAL LOW BRUSHES THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY
EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY.
* QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER BEYOND THIS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES MOVING TO AROUND...OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
--PATTERN AND SUMMARY--
THERE IS A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE THIS
WEEK AS DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING OVER GREENLAND RELENTS AND THE NAO
PUSHES INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY BY WEEK'S END. IN THE PACIFIC...A
SIMILAR...THOUGH LESS DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE EPO FROM NEGATIVE TO
POSITIVE WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING PACIFIC INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
INCREASING PACIFIC INFLUENCE BRINGING SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
--DETAILS--
THURSDAY: EC-EPS/GEFS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL SPAWN LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE THIS TRACK...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SOME LIGHT SNOW
BRUSHING COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME
BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALOFT. WELL-PLACED DGZ AND NNW UPSLOPE SUPPORTS
MOUNTAIN SHSN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH QUIET WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. T9S AROUND -10C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEGIN TO MODERATE TO AROUND -7C SUNDAY AS THE
FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE.
THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO THE UPPER
20S-MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: FAST-MOVING, SHORTWAVE-LADEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OPENS THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY PUSH INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END THE PERIOD CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...WITH MOST SPOTS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS/SNOW SHOWERS AT HIE. EVEN THOUGH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY INTO THIS
EVENING, A STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LESS BREEZY WEDNESDAY BUT COULD REACH 20-25 KT AT
TIMES, MOSTLY IN THE MORNING.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT MAY SPREAD A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT
SHSN TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS /15G25KTS/
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE QUIETER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...GALES PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT WILL SWITCH
TO SCA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AS IT
DEPARTS FRIDAY. SCAS WILL BE NECESSARY AND DEPENDING ON THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS
SHORT TERM...COMBS
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
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