572
FXUS61 KGYX 191828
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
128 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT OVER NEW ENGLAND WEAKENS TODAY ALLOWING
FOR BREEZY WINDS TO SUBSIDE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SLIDES EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLING
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
130 PM... JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO GET US INTO THE EVENING AS
MUCH OF THE AREA HAS ENDED UP UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS.
1040 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE SHORTWAVE DRAPED OVER THE
REGION WHICH IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CLOUDS, BUT
WITH THE 12Z GYX RAOB SHOWING VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE I
WOULD EXPECT THE AREA TO REMAIN MORE SUNNY THAN NOT.
645 AM...MINOR UPDATE TO T/TDS TO CAPTURE THE LATEST ROUND OF
OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUSLY...
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WINDCHILLS BELOW ZERO THIS
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
SLACKENS. TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWN
STREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SPAWN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TOO
FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THEREFORE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW
THURSDAY THAT TRACKS NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL LEAD TO MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
04Z LONG TERM FORECAST UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREVIOUSLY...
KEY MESSAGES:
* COASTAL LOW BRUSHES THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY
EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY.
* QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER BEYOND THIS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES MOVING TO AROUND...OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
--PATTERN AND SUMMARY--
THERE IS A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE THIS
WEEK AS DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING OVER GREENLAND RELENTS AND THE NAO
PUSHES INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY BY WEEK'S END. IN THE PACIFIC...A
SIMILAR...THOUGH LESS DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE EPO FROM NEGATIVE TO
POSITIVE WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING PACIFIC INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
INCREASING PACIFIC INFLUENCE BRINGING SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
--DETAILS--
THURSDAY: EC-EPS/GEFS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL SPAWN LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE THIS TRACK...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SOME LIGHT SNOW
BRUSHING COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME
BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALOFT. WELL-PLACED DGZ AND NNW UPSLOPE SUPPORTS
MOUNTAIN SHSN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH QUIET WEATHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. T9S AROUND -10C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEGIN TO MODERATE TO AROUND -7C SUNDAY AS THE
FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE.
THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MODERATING TO THE UPPER
20S-MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: FAST-MOVING, SHORTWAVE-LADEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OPENS THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY PUSH INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END THE PERIOD CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...WITH MOST SPOTS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NW WINDS SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT MAY SPREAD A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT
SHSN TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS /15G25KTS/
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE QUIETER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...NW WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL WARRANT AN SCA
INTO MID MORNING WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL BRING THE
THREAT FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AS IT
DEPARTS FRIDAY. SCAS WILL BE NECESSARY AND DEPENDING ON THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BARON/SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...SCHROETER
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
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