232
FXUS61 KGYX 191937
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
237 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASSES WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE ONLY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BE
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN THE FORM OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH A
WARMING TREND.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED
MUCH OF THE AREA ENDED UP UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS
WE SAW SOME BRIEF 500MB HEIGHT RISES. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED OVER
THE AREA ALONG WITH A 500MB TROUGH THAT WILL BE BEGINNING TO
DIG IN TO THE REGION. I HAVE BLENDED IN COOLER GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHT'S LOWS AS I EXPECT CLOUDS TO HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE WINDOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OPEN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE NIGHT. THE AREAS THAT LOOK TO STAY A BIT WARMER ARE THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS, AS CLOUDS HANG ON THERE, AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS THEY WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE
CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. BECAUSE OF THIS LOWS
ACTUALLY END UP PRETTY UNIFORM, +/- 5 EITHER SIDE OF ZERO,
AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED
WE WILL START THURSDAY PARTLY CLOUDY, BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
QUICKLY ADVANCING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A SYSTEM PASSES US WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST. EVEN THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
IT EASTWARD SO AT THE VERY MOST THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY SEE SOME
BRIEF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, BUT THAT CHANCE IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABLE TO
CLIMB NEAR 30 SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE IT GETS TOO CLOUDY,
WITH LOW TO MID-20S TO THE NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE FULLY IN BY THE
EVENING HOURS SO LOWS ONLY END UP IN THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY FROM THIS
SYSTEM BUT AS NORTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
THURSDAY, WE LIKELY SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN, MAINLY IN
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, AND LAST INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS WINDS
EARLIER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN CHILLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
--PATTERN AND SUMMARY--
AN INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH BOTH THE NAO AND EPO
MOVING INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS MONTH. WITH
AN INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE PACIFIC DURING THE LONG TERM, THIS
PORTENDS TEMPERATURES MOVING ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH...FOR MANY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY RESULT IN THE FIRST DAY ABOVE
40F IN OVER A MONTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FLOW IS
INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE... THE AO IS IN POSITIVE TERRITORY WHICH
WILL WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC AIR TO CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE AWAY FROM
THE POLE...WITH FAIRLY ROBUST ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THAT BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE PATTERN DOMINATED BY
RELATIVELY MOISTURE-STARVED, FAST MOVING WAVES IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM.
--DETAILS--
FRIDAY: CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...DGZ
IS WELL PLACED TO SUPPORT SHSN ACTIVITY IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF THE
WHITES. THIS IS CAPTURED WELL IN THE REGIONAL GEM AND 3KM NAM. H9
GRADIENT OF 20-30KTS WITH COLLOCATED COLD ADVECTION /THOUGH NO
ISALLOBARIC ASSISTANCE/ SUGGESTS SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...THOUGH
FAR LESS THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK. GUSTS TO 30 MPH LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS RANGE.
WEEKEND: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD SATURDAY FLATTENS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY. T9S WILL RESPOND TO
THE BACKING FLOW BY WARMING FROM AROUND -10C ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO -
6C FOR SUNDAY. DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SUGGESTS PLENTY OF SUN SATURDAY
WITH MORE OF A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. CHILLY MORNING SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS
IN THE 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH WITH THESE VALUES WARMING 3-4F
INTO SUNDAY AS WAA COMMENCES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THERE IS MODEST ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH A FEW OF THESE POTENTIALLY REACHING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH THAT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. GRADUAL DRYING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE COAST AND
FOOTHILLS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIE, PSM, AND MHT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LOW CLOUDS
CLOSE TO MVFR TONIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUD
DECKS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15G25KTS ON FRIDAY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MVFR/IFR SHSN AT HIE FRIDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN 1-3 FT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS RAMP UP
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
LONG TERM...SCAS WILL BE NECESSARY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAKER...BUT MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
SATURDAY OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH WINDS SUBSIDING INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...BARON
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
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