667
FXUS61 KGYX 200327
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1027 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
THE ONLY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN
THE FORM OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH SETTLING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED
1025 PM...TEMPS REMAIN THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST, AS SOME
PLACES ARE DECOUPLING QUICKER THAN OTHERS, BUT OVERALL FORECAST
FOR MINS SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. OTHER THAN
SOME CLOUDS IN THE ME MTNS, IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY CLEAR FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.
650 PM...SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY OVERNIGHT, WHICH MADE FOR
LESS SKY COVER WITH JUST SOME SCT CIRRUS MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
IN TURN HAS LED TO A LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS, GIVEN A LONGER
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAD COOLING INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SHELTERED AREAS. MINS NOW RANGE FROM -10 TO -5 IN THE
MTNS TO MAINLY ZERO TO +5 IN THE SOUTH.
PREVIOUSLY...MUCH OF THE AREA ENDED UP UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE SAW SOME BRIEF 500MB HEIGHT RISES. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
DRAPED OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A 500MB TROUGH THAT WILL BE
BEGINNING TO DIG IN TO THE REGION. I HAVE BLENDED IN COOLER
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT'S LOWS AS I EXPECT CLOUDS TO HOLD OFF LONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OPEN FOR A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT. THE AREAS THAT LOOK TO STAY A BIT
WARMER ARE THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS, AS CLOUDS HANG ON
THERE, AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS THEY WILL BE THE FIRST
TO SEE CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS LOWS ACTUALLY END UP PRETTY UNIFORM, +/- 5 EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO, AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED
WE WILL START THURSDAY PARTLY CLOUDY, BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
QUICKLY ADVANCING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A SYSTEM PASSES US WELL
TO OUR SOUTHEAST. EVEN THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
IT EASTWARD SO AT THE VERY MOST THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY SEE SOME
BRIEF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, BUT THAT CHANCE IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABLE TO
CLIMB NEAR 30 SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE IT GETS TOO CLOUDY,
WITH LOW TO MID-20S TO THE NORTH. CLOUDS WILL BE FULLY IN BY THE
EVENING HOURS SO LOWS ONLY END UP IN THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY FROM THIS
SYSTEM BUT AS NORTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
THURSDAY, WE LIKELY SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN, MAINLY IN
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, AND LAST INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
1020 PM...MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGES THAT MUCH FOR THE LONG TERM,
AS DRY AIR OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE 500 MB
PATTERN KEEP DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR S AND E THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MAY SEE SOME MTN SHSN AROUND SAT NIGHT, BUT THESE
WOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT. HE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
LATE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EARLY NEXT, BUT THAT MAY EVEN UP BEING
MOSTLY RAIN S OF THE MTNS, AS MAX TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 30S
TO LOW 40S.
PREVIOUSLY... KEY MESSAGES:
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS WINDS
EARLIER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN CHILLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
--PATTERN AND SUMMARY--
AN INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH BOTH THE NAO AND EPO
MOVING INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS MONTH. WITH
AN INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE PACIFIC DURING THE LONG TERM, THIS
PORTENDS TEMPERATURES MOVING ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH...FOR MANY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY RESULT IN THE FIRST DAY ABOVE
40F IN OVER A MONTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FLOW IS
INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE... THE AO IS IN POSITIVE TERRITORY WHICH
WILL WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC AIR TO CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE AWAY FROM
THE POLE...WITH FAIRLY ROBUST ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THAT BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE PATTERN DOMINATED BY
RELATIVELY MOISTURE-STARVED, FAST MOVING WAVES IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM.
--DETAILS--
FRIDAY: CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...DGZ
IS WELL PLACED TO SUPPORT SHSN ACTIVITY IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF THE
WHITES. THIS IS CAPTURED WELL IN THE REGIONAL GEM AND 3KM NAM. H9
GRADIENT OF 20-30KTS WITH COLLOCATED COLD ADVECTION /THOUGH NO
ISALLOBARIC ASSISTANCE/ SUGGESTS SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...THOUGH
FAR LESS THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK. GUSTS TO 30 MPH LOOK REASONABLE AT
THIS RANGE.
WEEKEND: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD SATURDAY FLATTENS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY. T9S WILL RESPOND TO
THE BACKING FLOW BY WARMING FROM AROUND -10C ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO -
6C FOR SUNDAY. DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SUGGESTS PLENTY OF SUN SATURDAY
WITH MORE OF A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. CHILLY MORNING SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS
IN THE 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH WITH THESE VALUES WARMING 3-4F
INTO SUNDAY AS WAA COMMENCES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THERE IS MODEST ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH A FEW OF THESE POTENTIALLY REACHING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH THAT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. GRADUAL DRYING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE COAST AND
FOOTHILLS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIE, PSM, AND MHT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LOW CLOUDS
CLOSE TO MVFR TONIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUD
DECKS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15G25KTS ON FRIDAY SUBSIDE INTO
THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE
PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MVFR/IFR SHSN AT HIE FRIDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN 1-3 FT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS RAMP UP
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
LONG TERM...SCAS WILL BE NECESSARY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAKER...BUT MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
SATURDAY OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH WINDS SUBSIDING INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BARON/CEMPA
SHORT TERM...BARON
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
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