545
FXUS61 KGYX 201140
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA. UPPER LOW CROSSES TONIGHT FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY NW WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE OF ATLANTIC CANADA. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US AND SETTLES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
640 AM...MINOR UPDATE TO T/TDS TO CAPTURE THE LATEST ROUND OF
OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUSLY...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY WITH THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TO START WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY AS AN UPPER LOW
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
20S WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING STEADY OUT OF THE NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
AN UPPER LOW CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NH AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS OF THE
HRRR ALSO SUGGEST THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS SE NH AND SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS NORTH TO SOUTH.
THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TIGHTENS FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 30 MPH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY CLEAR SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO UPPER
20S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
1020 PM...MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGES THAT MUCH FOR THE LONG TERM,
AS DRY AIR OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE 500 MB
PATTERN KEEP DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR S AND E THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MAY SEE SOME MTN SHSN AROUND SAT NIGHT, BUT THESE
WOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT. HE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
LATE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EARLY NEXT, BUT THAT MAY EVEN UP BEING
MOSTLY RAIN S OF THE MTNS, AS MAX TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 30S
TO LOW 40S.
PREVIOUSLY... KEY MESSAGES:
* TEMPERATURES REMAIN CHILLY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
--PATTERN AND SUMMARY--
AN INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH BOTH THE NAO AND EPO
MOVING INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS MONTH. WITH
AN INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE PACIFIC DURING THE LONG TERM, THIS
PORTENDS TEMPERATURES MOVING ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH...FOR MANY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY RESULT IN THE FIRST DAY ABOVE
40F IN OVER A MONTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FLOW IS
INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE... THE AO IS IN POSITIVE TERRITORY WHICH
WILL WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC AIR TO CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE AWAY FROM
THE POLE...WITH FAIRLY ROBUST ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THAT BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE PATTERN DOMINATED BY
RELATIVELY MOISTURE-STARVED, FAST MOVING WAVES IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM.
--DETAILS--
WEEKEND: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD SATURDAY FLATTENS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY. T9S WILL RESPOND TO
THE BACKING FLOW BY WARMING FROM AROUND -10C ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO -
6C FOR SUNDAY. DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SUGGESTS PLENTY OF SUN SATURDAY
WITH MORE OF A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. CHILLY MORNING SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS
IN THE 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH WITH THESE VALUES WARMING 3-4F
INTO SUNDAY AS WAA COMMENCES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THERE IS MODEST ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WITH A FEW OF THESE POTENTIALLY REACHING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH THAT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. GRADUAL DRYING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE COAST AND
FOOTHILLS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERCAST SKIES DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH CIGS MAINLY ABOVE MVFR
THRESHOLDS EXCEPT AT KHIE WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR IS LIKELY
TONIGHT. CLOUDS SCATTERED FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR AND NW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15G25KTS.
LONG TERM...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MVFR/IFR SHSN AT HIE FRIDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TODAY.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL BRING INCREASING
NW WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.
LONG TERM...SCAS WILL BE NECESSARY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAKER...BUT
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS SATURDAY OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
NEAR TERM...SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...SCHROETER
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
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