353
FXUS61 KGYX 201913
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
213 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE REGION ALONG WITH
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WITH QUIET
WEATHER ON SATURDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.
PATTERN: NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF IN A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WELL
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND PUSHES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH EAST OF THIS
HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OUTSIDE OF SOME PESKY MVFR CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHERN NH...THE STORY HAS BEEN A SLOW INCREASE IN MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A NORTHERLY LLEVEL GRADIENT DEVELOPS AS THE COASTAL LOW MAKES
IT/S CLOSEST APPROACH OVERNIGHT PUSHING TO A POSITION EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THROUGH THIS EVENING: QUIET LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECTED WITH
AMPLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO THE
TEENS NORTH/20S SOUTH UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
TONIGHT: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. UPSLOPE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD AND
DESPITE ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE...SATURATION IN THE DGZ IN THIS REGION
INDICATES A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SHOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN COUPLED...AND
ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT. THUS...WHILE LOWS LOOK TO BE
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING /SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH/ WIND
CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND THE 0F THRESHOLD.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.
PATTERN: DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE AND
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH PUSHES TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH OUR PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS BEING ON WIND GUSTS
FRIDAY IN THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIAL IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME NORTH OF THE WHITES.
FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY WITH 1040MB HIGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND A ROBUST NORTHERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO. WINDS AT H9
WILL BE AROUND 30KTS WHICH REPRESENTS ROUGHLY THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER GIVEN MODEST COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. THERE WON/T BE
MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WHICH SUGGESTS GUSTS
AROUND 25KTS WITH PERHAPS A FEW TO AROUND 30KTS. T9S WILL RESIDE
AROUND -10C WITH RESULTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 30 ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...ABOUT 5F BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES OVERHEAD WITH DRY WEDGE
/PWATS < 0.1"/ SIGNALING AN END TO THE MOUNTAIN SHSN ACTIVITY WITH
MOUNTAIN CLOUDINESS THINNING...CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE AND LIGHT
WINDS SUGGESTING A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. FOLLOWED CLOSER
TO THE COLDER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS LOWS BACK DOWN TO
AROUND 0F.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PATTERN AND SUMMARY...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND HOWEVER A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, WE NEED TO WAIT UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
SATURDAY WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 30S SOUTH BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND TEENS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE WEEK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONE PASSING THE REGION MONDAY AND A SECOND ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS
WITH PERHAPS A RAIN SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AS A GRADUAL
WARMING TRENDS DEVELOPS.
12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND LATEST AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ENTERING THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...
SUMMARY: LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
TOWARDS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THIS SPELLS QUIET WEATHER
WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT HIE WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
WINDS: NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THESE WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
10KTS...BEFORE STRENGTHENING FURTHER TO 12G25KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
LLWS: NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT WITH 1.5-2KFT
NORTHWESTERLIES REACHING 30-40KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE SURFACE
WINDS RESPOND FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOW/SNOW CHARACTER: ANY SNOW THAT FALLS AT HIE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT /VSBYS >= 1 MILE/ WITH A DRY/FLUFFY CONSISTENCY.
LONG TERM...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
WATERS TONIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
NECESSITATING SCAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WINDS/WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARDS
THE REGION WITH SCAS NECESSARY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING.
LONG TERM...SCAS MAY BE NECESSARY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
SATRUDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR NORTH.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...CANNON
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