101
FXUS61 KGYX 211507
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1007 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK SYSTEM CROSSING SOUTHEAST CANADA
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WARMING TREND OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1000 AM...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ALONG THE
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CANADA/USA BORDER AND INTO THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE WHITES. WEBCAMS SHOW LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING AGAIN. BESIDES THE FAR NORTH, CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY
NW WINDS ON THE DOWNSLOPE SIDES OF THE WHITES AND THROUGH MAINE.
OVERALL A NICE WINTER DAY ON TAP WITH SOME AREAS DOWN SOUTH
BREAKING THE FREEZING MARK. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES.
645 AM...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE HAVE MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO T/TDS TO ALIGN WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUSLY...
AN EMBEDDED WAVE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH DAY BREAK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BRING BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 30 MPH.
SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WHILE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO LINGER ALONG AND NW OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH TO LOW 30S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
WINDS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND TONIGHT WHILE REMAINING
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO LIMIT SPOTS FROM DECOUPLING. OTHER THAN A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA SATURDAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
1030 PM...EARLY LOOK AT 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CHANGES FOR THE FIRST 5-6 DAYS OF THE FORECAST, AS 500 MB
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
LEANING MORE TOWARD TROUGHING OVER E NOAM, BUT +PNA PATTERN
BUILDS A BIT, WE DO LACK THE -NAO TO BLOCK THINGS UP BETTER, SO
MAYBE A BETTER CHANCES OF SOME PRECIP, BUT STILL NOTHING TO GET
TOO EXCITED ABOUT.
PREVIOUSLY...MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND HOWEVER A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, WE NEED TO WAIT UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
SATURDAY WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 30S SOUTH BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND TEENS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE WEEK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONE PASSING THE REGION MONDAY AND A SECOND ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS
WITH PERHAPS A RAIN SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AS A GRADUAL
WARMING TRENDS DEVELOPS.
12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND LATEST AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ENTERING THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...LLWS FROM NW WINDS AT 2KFT AROUND 30-35 KTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH DAY BREAK UNTIL SURFACE WINDS INCREASE
LATER MORNING. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT AT KHIE WHERE
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND -SHSN WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR. KHIE LIKELY
SEES A TRANSITION TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LONG TERM...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE PERIOD.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS WILL
BRING SCA CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DROP BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM...SCAS MAY BE NECESSARY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR NORTH.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DUMONT/SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...SCHROETER
LONG TERM...CANNON/CEMPA
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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