757
FXUS61 KGYX 211941
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
241 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND
PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK
SYSTEM CROSSING SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND OCCURS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WITH POTENTIALLY MIXED RAIN AND SNOW LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
- WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET LEADING TO DECOUPLING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN
FOR MOST AREAS. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS ANOTHER PULSE
OF 925-850MB MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED POPS AND
LIGHT SNOW BACKUP TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. OVERALL A NICE AND
CHILLY START TO THE WINTER WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
NICE WINTER DAY TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE OUTDOORS TOMORROW WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, WINDS WILL ALSO
LET UP A BIT WHICH WILL TAKE THE BITE OUT OF THE COLD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS
SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE LOW 30S SOUTH AND MID-20S NORTH. A WEAK
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM ONTARIO PROVINCE ON BY
THE EVENING, WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS ALL AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE A BIT
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVERVIEW...A SERIES OF TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE EVENTS WILL LACK DEEP
MOISTURE.
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A
WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED ARRIVING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. A
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 20S
IN THE NORTH AND ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ONCE
AGAIN IN MOST AREAS. BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE PTYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.
12Z MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR CYCLOGENESIS OFF
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM MAY BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
IMPACT NEW ENGLAND. YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS TOO WILL BE LIMITED IN MOISTURE
BUT NEVERTHELESS HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. COLDER AIR MAY POTENTIALLY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF TERMINALS EXCEPT
WHITEFIELD THROUGH SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NW UPSLOPE WILL BRING
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS NORTH OF THE WHITES AND INTO THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
LONG TERM...SEVERAL TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HIE TO OCCASIONALLY DROP DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A SHORT LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WSW AHEAD OF
AND APPROACHING DRY FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, GUSTING TO SCA THRESHOLDS AT TIMES.
A DEVELOPING GRADIENT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...CANNON
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