871
FXUS61 KGYX 221941
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
241 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PRETTY AVERAGE WINTER DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A PRETTY AVERAGE
WINTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN SNOW
SHOWERS THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO MARK THE BOUNDARY CROSSING THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LARGELY UNCHANGED OR EVEN A BIT
WARMER THAN TODAY AND WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY GUSTY. BUT
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN UPSLOPE
ZONES AND SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH OTHER SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TEMPS WILL BE THE TRICKY ASPECT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLOUD UP AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. IN ADDITION SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO STIR. SO
INITIALLY TEMPS MAY FALL QUICKLY WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND DRY CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT I ANTICIPATE THAT TEMPS
WILL LEVEL OFF...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES
MAY NEED TO BRING THE MIN TEMPS DOWN. MUCH OF THE PRECIP LIKELY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUN MORNING...THOUGH SOME UPSLOPING SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MIXING INCREASES AND FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE MTNS THRU SUN.
FROUDE NUMBERS INCREASE SHARPLY THRU MIDDAY...AND SO ANY UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD START TO SPILL OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY
NOON. I HAVE STRETCHED POP UP AND ADDED FLURRIES TOWARDS THE
COAST AS SOME FLAKES SEEM LIKELY BEYOND JUST THE FAVORED WEST
NORTHWEST SLOPES.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. OVERNIGHT CONTINUED
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...WHILE S/WV RIDGING
BRINGS AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OVERVIEW...
A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK THIS WEEK,
BRINGING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. THE
STORM TRACK THEN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM MOVES CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND.
DETAILS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK AS MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL WEAK AND
LOW MOISTURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSIT THROUGH THE REGION
THIS WEEK, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS
THEY PASS THROUGH. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THESE WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH EACH SYSTEM.
THE FIRST COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH ONE
MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND ANOTHER ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT ONE LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
MOISTURE. WHILE STILL A WEAK SYSTEM, A TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO SEE MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. MODELS HAD
BEEN SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM WITH THIS SYSTEM
A FEW DAYS AGO, BUT HAVE SHIFTED AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKER
SYSTEM, WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSING WELL OUT TO SEA. WE'LL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM ARE NOT FAR OFF FROM PHASING
AND BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT
THERE IS NO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION AMONGST THE MODELS OR
ENSEMBLES. REGARDLESS OF HOW STRONG THAT SYSTEM ULTIMATELY
BECOMES, COLDER AIR LOOKS LIKELY TO MAKE A RETURN BEHIND IT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AND TIME PERIOD. SOME MTN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUN...AND THAT MAY BRING LOCAL MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS...AND SOME SCATTERED MVFR CIGS
THRU THE DAY. HIE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THESE
CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT HAS NOT BEEN
INCLUDED IN THE TAF CURRENTLY.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEK, BUT PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY
NIGHT, TUESDAY NIGHT, MORESO ON THURSDAY, AND THEN AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONT. HOWEVER SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
AND WARM ADVECTION MAKE IT MORE LIKELY THAT CONDITIONS STAY
JUST BELOW OR ONLY MARGINALLY AT SCA THRESHOLDS. WITH THE
COVERAGE OF 25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED I HAVE
OPTED FOR NO SCA AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY SUN AS
WINDS TURN WESTERLY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM...A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEM PASS
NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS WEEK, EACH ONE BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SCA CONDITIONS IN FRESHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THESE SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS BY MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY, AND
NEXT WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CLAIR
AVIATION...CLAIR/LEGRO
MARINE...CLAIR/LEGRO
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