341
FXUS61 KGYX 261430
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1030 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE REGION BRINGING DAYTIME SHOWERS
AGAIN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. CONDITIONS
TREND DRIER FOR MID- WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1030AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WITH THIS UPDATE. DID PULL BACK POPS A FEW HOURS AS
THE TROUGH IS SLOW TO DIG IN AND SHOWERS, REALLY JUST FLURRIES
AT THE MOMENT, ARE ONLY REACHING THE GROUND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE HAVE CLEARED OUT
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL MAKE THEM THE FOCAL POINT FOR SOME
POTENTIALLY GUSTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCOMING 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE WILL HAVE THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABOUT 100-150 J/KG OF CAPE
THANKS TO THE DAYTIME HEATING. THE MOUNTAINS AND COAST HAVE
STAYED CLOUDIER, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED AND UPDATED AS
NEEDED.
7AM UPDATE...NOT MUCH TO UPDATE AT THIS HOUR, BUT DID MODIFY
MORNING SKY FORECAST. SHIELD OF ALTOSTRATUS BLOSSOMED A BIT
FURTHER INLAND THAN PREV FORECAST. THIS SHOULD TRANSIT UP
COASTAL AND INTERIOR ME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IT MAY CURB
SOME MORNING SURFACE HEATING, WHICH COULD DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS HERE LATER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LESS MORNING FOG TO SPEAK OF TODAY, BUT STILL SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPMENT WHERE OVERNIGHT CLEARING PROMOTED ITS
DEVELOPMENT.
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH, ANOTHER BREAKOUT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TODAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL AGAIN TOP OUT BETWEEN 7 AND 8 C/KM FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA AS SFC HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. BASED ON OBS, SHOWER
ACTIVITY TUESDAY WAS MORE RAINY THAN SNOWY OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS DESPITE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. THIS MAY WELL BE THE CASE
AGAIN TODAY, AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WITH GREATER PRECIP RATES, FROZEN PRECIP, AND A
QUICK UPTICK IN WIND GUSTS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTS FROM
THE WHITES LATE THIS MORNING, INTO WESTERN ME, AND THEN THE
LOWER KENNEBEC VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THIS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAKE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AGAIN BRINGS THE OVERALL FOOTPRINT
OF THESE SHOWERS DOWN. TOWARDS THE KENNEBEC VALLEY, A BURST OF
MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE LOW DEEPENS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HOLDING ON TO A SHIELD OF QPF INTO
THE MIDCOAST AND EASTERN ME. DEPARTURE TIME VARIES YET, AND THIS
MAY WELL BE A MESOSCALE FEATURE THAT REMAINS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND LOCATION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
LIGHT SNOW MAY STILL BE UNDERWAY IN CENTRAL ME OVERNIGHT, BUT
GENERALLY DECREASING IN AREA AS THE MAIN LOW CONTINUES NE.
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE WHITES REGION INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. NW BREEZE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP THE SURFACE FROM
DECOUPLING, BUT CAA BRINGS LOWS AGAIN INTO THE 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT WILL
BRING DRIER AIR FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WHILE THE SUN WILL AID
IN MAKING IT FEEL WARMER THAN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, ONGOING
BREEZE WILL TEND TO COUNTERACT THE EFFECT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
1040 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM AT THIS
TIME OTHER THAN TO INTRODUCE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. 01Z NBM WAS USED AS PRIMARY
CONTRIBUTOR.
PREVIOUSLY...
PATTERN OVERVIEW: A POTENT 500MB TROUGH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED FRIDAY,
THEN SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
PRECIPITATION AND MAKE FOR A PRETTY DREARY STRETCH OF DAYS.
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AT SOME
POINT THIS WEEKEND AND MAY INVOLVE MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION
TYPES.
DETAILS: A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT COINCIDING
WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LOOKS SHOWERY IN NATURE AS MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING,
BUT WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING THESE SHOWERS COULD BE
PUNCHY. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SOME QUICK ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP, SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THIS
MOVES INTO THE HI-RES MODEL WINDOW. THE FRONT LOOKS TO DROP LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ABLE TO BRIEFLY
NOSE IN. THE DAY WILL START MOSTLY SUNNY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S, WITH SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE NEARING 50. TO THE NORTH WHERE
IT WILL BE A BIT CLOUDIER, HIGHS LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HIGH CIRRUS START TO MOVE IN AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CLOUDS LIKELY
WON'T BE THICK ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INHIBIT COOLING, SO LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY STILL DROP BACK INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE, AND MAYBE
EVEN TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MOISTURE FEED CONTINUES RIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, THAT MUCH IS KNOWN, BUT GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT ON
THE SAME PAGE REGARDING TIMING, TYPE, OR EXTENT OF SAID
PRECIPITATION. I THINK WHAT IS FAIR TO ASSUME AT THIS POINT, WITH
MODELS AGREEING ON HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP JUST TO OUR NORTH, IS
THAT ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE ON THE TABLE.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY: WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY, I WILL JUST REITERATE THAT A MESS OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. WHAT MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON IS THAT BY MONDAY, 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING, MEANING ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
PUSH OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A DREARY STRETCH OF DAYS ENDS WITH A COLD FRONT CLEARING
THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...PREVAILING VFR TODAY AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
MORE RA AND SN SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THESE FIRST SHOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND THEN MORE
OF THE INTERIOR AND LAST COAST OF ME. THESE MAY CAUSE BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MORE IN THE WAY
OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS AUG/RKD THIS EVENING
AS SN MAY BECOME MORE CONSISTENT INTO OVERNIGHT BEFORE PULLING
EAST. WINDS PICK UP SECOND HALF OF THE DAY, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND, THEREFORE, RESTRICTIONS AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER TAKES UP RESIDENCE IN THE REGION. FRIDAY IS A DAY TO
WATCH FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25KTS, BUT OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO WAVES CONTINUE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OUTSIDE OF PENOBSCOT BAY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS FALL BELOW SCA TODAY AND TOMORROW. THERE
WILL BE A SW WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
INTO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING WELL
SOUTH OF THE WATERS THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WITH WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
ROUGH CONDITIONS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150.
NEAR TERM...BARON/CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...BARON/EKSTER
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