979
FXUS61 KGYX 261917
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING . HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A
VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AND MESSY TRAVEL TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS TREND DRIER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE AREA, BUT LARGE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ACROSS OUR CWA HAVE KEPT SHOWER COVERAGE MINIMAL
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, I HAVE BACKED OFF
ON POPS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS SAVE FOR THE MIDCOAST WHERE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE MAY PIVOT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS INLAND LATE TONIGHT. IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW FREEZING. COLD
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES PRETTY UNIFORM
TONIGHT, WITH 20S AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED
THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING ALLOWING A
RIDGE TO BUILD IN AND MAKE FOR A SUNNY AND DRY DAY. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING, BUT THOSE WILL ALSO COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY COULD ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH
WIND GUSTS 20-25MPH BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD NEAR 50, BUT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. THIS IS TRUE FOR
NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL, THAT LIKELY STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
CLOUDS INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF IT, BUT QPF
IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS ONE SO A DUSTING ALONG THE
COAST TO MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH IN NORTHERN AND INTERIOR ZONES
IS ALL TO EXPECT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S
AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES STAY MORE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ON THE
COAST, HENCE THE LESS LIKELY ACCUMULATION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
500MB TROUGH SWINGS OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING, TAKING WHAT'S
LEFT OF THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT, EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING.
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S, EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MESSY WEATHER WITH DIFFICULT TRAVEL. THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE TO SEE ALL VARIETIES OF PRECIP TYPES ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON AMOUNTS AND WHERE EACH
TYPE(S) WILL FALL. THE PRIMARY CULPRIT IS A PSEUDO-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT CREATING PERIODS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH A
COUPLE OF BREAKS OR LULLS POSSIBLE.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS MAINLY DUE TO THE MEANDERING NATURE OF THE FRONT
AND HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BE
IN KEEPING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH OR ALLOW IT TO LIFT FARTHER
NORTH. LATEST GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY FAVORS MOSTLY SNOW FOR NORTHERN AREAS WHILE MORE OF A MIX
IS POSSIBLE FARTHER TO SOUTH, INCLUDING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE FRONT GETS OR HOW FAR SOUTH IT STAYS, BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
A TREND FOR THE WARM NOSE ALOFT TO PUSH NORTH, ESPECIALLY GOING INTO
SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING CHANCES OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL. THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN,
SO FOR NOW THE FORECAST HAS MENTION OF ALL PRECIP TYPES, AND
TYPES/AMOUNTS WILL BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS. AGAIN, THERE
COULD EVEN BE BREAKS OR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE IF THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE TRENDS FARTHER SOUTH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IN FINALLY PUSHING
THE PRIMARY LOW AND COLD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY WITH A DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. HIE AND LEB HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING STEADY PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS
WILL BE GENERALLY VFR, BUT BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY
OCCUR IN SNOW SHOWERS. HIE LIKELY DROPS TO MVFR WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BANKING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS THURSDAY MORNING MAY
SEE GUSTS 20- 25 KTS, MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS, AS THE FRONT
PASSES. SNOW SHOWERS PASS WITH A FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL,
WITH THIS ROUND HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OF BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
LONG TERM...A FEW LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING MVFR
RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
FRIDAY, EXCEPT UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS AROUND HIE. THE WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY MESSY WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING ALL
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES) AND IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS,
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IMPROVEMENT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA AS LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS DEPARTS TO
THE NORTH. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BEING ABOUT LOW END SCA WAVES AND WIND GUSTS
TO THE OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM...THE OUTER WATERS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SCA CONDITIONS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. OVER THE WEEKEND, WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AS A BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WINDS MAY STAY EAST/NORTHEAST OR
COULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY IF THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND THE PRIMARILY
LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. EITHER WAY,
SCA CONDITIONS AND MAYBE EVEN A PERIOD OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...BARON
LONG TERM...COMBS
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