333
FXUS61 KGYX 271040
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. A VARIETY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND MESSY TRAVEL IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
TREND DRIER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
630AM UPDATE...A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WORKING
THEIR WAY INTO THE MOUNTAINS NOW THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
A SUNNY START TO THE DAY FOR THE COAST AND INTERIOR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVE TODAY WITH LAST PUSH OF CLOUDS SET
TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR WILL LIMIT SHOWERS TO ONLY THE MOUNTAINS AS THIS SWINGS
THROUGH. OTHERWISE, WINDS PICK UP AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES,
BUT WILL SLACKEN INTO THE EVENING. SFC TEMPS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS EVENING WILL CLOUD OVER AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVERHEAD, ALSO BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MOISTURE DEPTH SUPPORTING
PRECIP IS FLEETING, AND MAY BE HARD TO SATISFY OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL BE WRAPPED UP BY FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FRIDAY, WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY 20 TO 25 MPH. UPPER/MID JET WILL BE PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN ME AS THE DAY GOES ON, AND THIS NORTHWARD EXTENT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN SETTING UP CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND, NAMELY
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WITH A FLATTER CONTINUATION OF THE
JET, THE LOW LEVELS WON'T BE AS WILLING TO PUSH NORTH WITH WARM
AIR.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WED EVENING UPDATE: WEEKEND SYSTEM(S) CONTINUE TO LOOK IMPACTFUL
TO TRAVEL. OF NOTE WILL BE MOD TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY (FOR NOW FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND FAR
WESTERN ME) FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WAS ALSO
ECHOED IN COLLABORATIONS WITH WPC WHERE THIS AREA IS SITUATED
BELOW THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW FAIRLY ROBUST CAD TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPS COOL. THIS WILL
HAVE IMPLICATIONS FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NH AND SOUTHERN ME
WHERE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET APPEAR LIKELY. PLENTY OF
REFINEMENTS TO BE MADE IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PERIODS, BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS A CORRIDOR OF ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIP TO
AFFECT TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND.
PREVIOUSLY:
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MESSY WEATHER WITH DIFFICULT TRAVEL. THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE TO SEE ALL VARIETIES OF PRECIP TYPES ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON AMOUNTS AND WHERE EACH
TYPE(S) WILL FALL. THE PRIMARY CULPRIT IS A PSEUDO-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT CREATING PERIODS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH A
COUPLE OF BREAKS OR LULLS POSSIBLE.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS MAINLY DUE TO THE MEANDERING NATURE OF THE FRONT
AND HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BE
IN KEEPING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH OR ALLOW IT TO LIFT FARTHER
NORTH. LATEST GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY FAVORS MOSTLY SNOW FOR NORTHERN AREAS WHILE MORE OF A MIX
IS POSSIBLE FARTHER TO SOUTH, INCLUDING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE FRONT GETS OR HOW FAR SOUTH IT STAYS, BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
A TREND FOR THE WARM NOSE ALOFT TO PUSH NORTH, ESPECIALLY GOING INTO
SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING CHANCES OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL. THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN,
SO FOR NOW THE FORECAST HAS MENTION OF ALL PRECIP TYPES, AND
TYPES/AMOUNTS WILL BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS. AGAIN, THERE
COULD EVEN BE BREAKS OR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE IF THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE TRENDS FARTHER SOUTH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IN FINALLY PUSHING
THE PRIMARY LOW AND COLD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY WITH A DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR. EXCEPTION MAY BE HIE WHERE SHSN CONTINUES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY AND MAY OCCASIONALLY CAUSE REDUCTIONS
IN VIS. BREEZY TODAY, BUT THIS SUBSIDES IN THE EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BRINGING A NW WIND SHIFT
AND MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...THE WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY MESSY WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TYPES) AND IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IMPROVEMENT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE WATERS WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AS A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE
A PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS AS WINDS SHIFT SW TO W. THESE GUSTS WILL
BE STRONGEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, UP TO 30 KT.
LONG TERM...OVER THE WEEKEND, WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF
THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AS A BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WINDS MAY STAY EAST/NORTHEAST OR
COULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY IF THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND THE
PRIMARILY LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.
EITHER WAY, SCA CONDITIONS AND MAYBE EVEN A PERIOD OF GALES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...COMBS/CORNWELL/LEGRO
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