463
FXUS61 KGYX 271936
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
336 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING FOR FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS DEPARTING
THE AREA AS THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A CLEAR EVENING BEFORE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THIS FRONT SO WOULD EXPECT
NO MORE THAN A DUSTING FOR MOST AREAS, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION
AROUND 0.5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE
CLOSER TO AN INCH. AS FAR AS THE AFFECT ON LOW TEMPERATURES,
SOME AREAS MAY INITIALLY DECOUPLE AND FALL FAST, BUT CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WIND WILL QUICKLY PUT AN END TO THAT. I HAVE THINGS ENDING
UP IN THE 20S IN THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAINS, WITH LOW 30S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* A MESSY SYSTEM ENTERS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO SLICK TRAVEL IN THE AREAS THAT SEE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY BRING A SIMILARLY CLEAR,
DRY, AND BREEZY DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S IN FAR SOUTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
THE HI-RES MODELS FOR THE ONSET OF OUR MESSY SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT, SO TRIED TO TAKE MORE OF A CONSENSUS APPROACH.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDNIGHT
HOUR WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING SNOW TO START. THE RAIN-SNOW
MIX LINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP IN NEW HAMPSHIRE ON A LINE
FROM LEBANON, THROUGH CONCORD, TO PORTSMOUTH, WITH AREAS FROM
MANCHESTER SOUTH, SEEING PLAIN RAIN. AS THE WARM NOSE BEGINS TO
PUSH IN ALOFT THIS MIX LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE NORTHWARD. COLD
AIR LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO WIN OUT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD SO AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL ALSO BECOME MORE
APPARENT, FIRST IN THE AREA OF CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN MAINE BY THE EARLY HOURS OF
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE STANDS THE BEST CHANCE
OF STAYING PLAIN RAIN DURING THIS TIME. IN THIS WINDOW WE ARE
LOOKING AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A TRACE AND 0.05 INCHES, WITH THESE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY IN CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVERVIEW: A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE BOUNDARY. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND A
CORRIDOR OF ACCUMULATING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WAVERING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS TO SOUTHERN NH. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A MORE AMPLIFIED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR EVENTUALLY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
PRECIPITATION BECOMES ALL RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
IMPACTS:
*MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
SATURDAY FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN.
*THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR OF ICE ACCRETION THAT WILL BRING
AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES. THE LOCATION OF THIS CORRIDOR
IS LESS CERTAIN AS THE SNOW/ICE/RAIN LINE WILL BE WAVERING NORTH AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENT.
*ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE
DIFFICULT TRAVEL ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR POWER
OUTAGES FROM ADDITIONAL ICING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
DETAILS:
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING. A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS MAINLY SNOW
ALONG A WNW TO ESE LINE FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT OF MAINE. SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF SLEET
AND THEN SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SW MAINE INTO CENTRAL
NH. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
WITH THE GOING FORECAST WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN HERE SATURDAY
MORNING.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CANADA WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY THAT WILL FUNNEL COLD AND DRY AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET BY MID DAY SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST,
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/RAIN LINE
WILL WAVER NORTH AND SOUTH INTO SATURDAY NIGHT MAKING FOR A
TRICKY FORECAST. AT THIS TIME, ROUGHLY 1 INCH OF QPF WILL FALL
AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DIFFICULT TRAVEL THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THERE COULD BE A
CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NH INTO INTERIOR SW MAINE
THAT SEES ENOUGH FREEZING RAIN TO BRING AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
POWER OUTAGES. AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO TRY A PRESS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY EVENING THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND THE
STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT.
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED WITH A PRONOUNCED
WARM NOSE ALOFT LEADING TO MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL ICE ACCRETION
CONTINUING THE ELEVATED THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES. SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
BECOMING MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S NORTH TO SOUTH.
THE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS HIE WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY WITH STEADIER SNOW. TODAY'S BREEZY WINDS
WILL ALSO QUICKLY RELAX AFTER SUNSET, RETURNING TO A SIMILAR
FORM TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR FRIDAY NIGHT AS SNOW, WINTRY MIX, AND
RAIN ENTER THE REGION.
LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR IS LIKELY SATURDAY WITH LOW CIGS AND
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE MAY BE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX
TO RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. RAIN IS LIKELY MONDAY WITH FINALLY SOME
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WIND GUSTS REACH SCA CRITERIA IN
THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES, SHIFTING
WINDS NORTHEASTERLY. THE REMINDER OF FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS, WITH A MESS OF PRECIPITATION TYPES MOVING OVER
THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AND
SEAS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. EAST TO SE WINDS
INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCAS
POSSIBLY NEEDED. A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE MONDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>021-033.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NHZ001>010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...BARON
LONG TERM...SCHROETER
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