292
FXUS61 KGYX 280837
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
437 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING FOR FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
BREEZY WNW WINDS TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPS AGAIN PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME
VALUES INTO THE LOW 50S IN SOUTHERN NH AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN ME
COAST.
WHILE SKIES BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, CLOUDS
TO THICKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON, FINALLY LOWERING INTO THE
EVENING. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
LONG DURATION WINTER STORM ON TRACK TO BRING A MESSY TRAVEL
WEEKEND.
HIGHLIGHTS:
*TWO DISTINCTIVE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA SEEING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
*MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTH,
FREEZING RAIN TO THE SOUTH, AND A CORRIDOR OF SNOW/SLEET IN
BETWEEN.
*A CORRIDOR OF ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED THAT WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES. THIS IS TRENDING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NH AND YORK CO, ME BEFORE
PROGRESSIVELY PUSHING NORTH SUNDAY.
*WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR FOR THIS EVENT.
EXITING COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL LEAVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH BACK NORTH AS
A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT OVERNIGHT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK
ALONG IT. NORTHWARD PROGRESS IS RESISTED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILT
UP ALONG INTERIOR CANADA, THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACTIVELY
COOLING SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ME AND NH. HOW FAR NORTH
THIS BOUNDARY RETURNS IS COMING INTO CLEARER VIEW, BUT
ADVANCEMENT INTO NH IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY. THIS MEANS COOL
SURFACE AIR WILL HAVE THE UPPER HAND FOR MUCH OF THE DURATION OF
THE FIRST AND SECOND LEGS OF THIS EVENT.
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING
TONIGHT. PRECIP BEGINS LIGHT LATE EVENING, BUT INCREASES IN
INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT
ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF A LEBANON, NH TO WELLS, ME LINE,
WITH RAIN/WINTRY MIX TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT THIS
WILL WAVER. GREATEST IMPACTS DURING THIS ROUND THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BE 1-2" PER HOUR SNOW RATES IN THE NH MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
ME MTNS/FOOTHILLS SAT MORNING, AS WELL AS ICE ACCRETION IN
SOUTHERN NH...POTENTIALLY TO THE FAR SOUTHERN ME COAST. THIS
EXTENSION DEPENDS GREATLY ON SURFACE TEMPS WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FLOW FROM HIGH PRES TO THE
NORTH, BUT PROXIMITY TO COAST COULD CREATE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
TEMPS HERE. DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR IS NOT GOING TO BE AS GREAT AS
THE PREVIOUS WINTRY MIX STORM THIS SEASON, THUS FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATER IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA IF
SURFACE TEMPS COMPLY.
AFTER AN INITIAL ROUND OF STRATIFORM PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, THE EVENING BRINGS A CONSOLIDATION OF PRECIP/SHOWERS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HALF. THIS IS WHERE ICE COULD CONTINUE TO
ACCRETE IN NH AND FAR SOUTHERN ME. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY HOW
CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT THIS TIMEFRAME, AND THUS
RESULTANT AMOUNTS WILL BE IN FLUX. BUT PROFILES CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN THE WAY OF FREEZING
RAIN...PERHAPS EXPANDING SOUTH TO THE MA/NH BORDER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SEND THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS A
WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE LEADING
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED
WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE ALOFT LEADING TO MORE IN THE WAY OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT ACROSS
THE INTERIOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCRETION CONTINUING THE ELEVATED THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES.
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S NORTH TO SOUTH.
THE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR PREVAILS TODAY BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT PASSES. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. A TREND TO MVFR IS LIKELY AROUND MIDNIGHT,
CONTINUING TO IFR SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
TERMINALS IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL ME, WHILE A WINTRY MIX APPEARS
LIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS. PRECIP TRENDS SOUTH
SAT EVENING, REMAINING OVER SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS.
LONG TERM...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX TO RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. RAIN
IS LIKELY MONDAY WITH FINALLY SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING BEFORE SLACKENING INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THIS EVENING, RETURNING NORTH AS A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT.
A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND WITH
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA FOR BULK OF THE EVENT.
LONG TERM...EAST TO SE WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SCAS POSSIBLY NEEDED. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
LATE MONDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>021-033.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NHZ001>010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...LEGRO/SCHROETER
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