074
FXUS61 KGYX 290228 AAB
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1028 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING ACCUMULATING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
UPDATE...MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. WILL BEGIN TO SEE PRECIP MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH CURRENT
POP FORECAST. WE SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO SEE COLDER AIR DRAINING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE COUNTY AND NEW BRUNSWICK AFTER MIDNIGHT IF
HI-RES GUIDANCE IS TO BE BELIEVED. SO WILL BE WATCHING THAT
CLOSELY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* A MESSY SYSTEM ENTERS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SLICK TRAVEL IN THE AREAS THAT SEE FROZEN PRECIPITATION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A BAND OF THICKER CIRRUS SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA, THIS WILL HAVE SKIES
CLOUDING UP AFTER SUNSET. STEADY PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
AREA AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH SHIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BE
BATTLING COLD AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM
LEBANON, NEW HAMPSHIRE TO WELLS, MAINE. THIS INITIAL PUSH OF
WARM FRONTAL ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME SNOWFALL RATES
1-2" PER HOUR AT TIMES IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. INITIALLY THE
WINTRY MIX LINE WILL BE NARROW AS COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TO WIN
OUT THROUGH THE COLUMN, BUT BETWEEN 2AM AND 8AM IS WHEN WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE EXPANSION OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTHWARD AND
MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEGIN TO FALL. EXPECT
SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL IMPACT TRAVEL DURING THE
DAY IN NORTHERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES.
* FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION WILL IMPACT TRAVEL AND ELEVATE RISK FOR
POWER OUTAGES IN CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE.
ICE AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO DEPEND ON A COUPLE FACTORS SATURDAY. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE GOING TO BE RIDING A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CAUSING THE BAND OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO MEANDER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE FREEZING RAIN IS
GOING TO DETERMINE ACCRETION. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THAT WHILE
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM NOSE ALOFT, SUB-FREEZING AIR DEPTHS
ARE 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SO AREAS WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING WILL SEE MAINLY SLEET
WHICH WOULD CUT INTO ICING TOTALS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SATURDAY AS THAT
SEEMS LIKE THE AREA THAT WILL SEE THE MOST EFFICIENT ACCRETION
WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES. THIS WILL POSE AN
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES. THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE IN ADVISORIES AS UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL GET SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
FLIP TO PLAIN RAIN.
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE LINE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
MEANDERING NORTHWARD THROUGH YORK COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS NOT UNTIL THE EVENING THAT THIS LINE WILL FINALLY WIN ITS
BATTLE WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND ADVANCE NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE BULK OF THE SNOW WITH FINAL TOTALS 3-6
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND 1-3 INCHES IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN, CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EAST CENTRAL MAINE. THE
REDUCTION TO SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS IN MAINE IS LARGELY DUE TO
PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHTER AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
WELL AS THE FACT THAT INITIALLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF A WINTRY MIX. FOR
THESE REASONS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WAS ADDED TO WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AS SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE
FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AS PRECIPITATION
BECOMES LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE BULK OF THE EFFORT IN THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST
WAS PUT INTO THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD, WHERE THE HIGHEST IMPACT
WILL PROBABLY BE. AS FAR AS THE HEMISPHERIC SCALE AT 500 MB
GOES, THERE LOOKS TO BE A TREND TOWARD MORE RIDGING MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY
PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU.
AS FOR SUNDAY, MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE SEEING SOME FORM OF
FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIP. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE BE LIGHT AND
SPOTTY AT THAT POINT. PERHAPS SOME SPOTS IN SEACOAST NH, MAY
HAVE TURNED OVER TO RA BY SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, ANY PURE SNOW WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE N ZONES WITH A MIX OF PL/FZRA ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE AREA. SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPS, BUT ONCE THE SOLAR HEATING INCREASES BY MID MORNING, I
THINK WE’LL START TO SEE TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM, FIRST IN S NH, AND
MAYBE ALONG THE COAST BY MIDDAY, AS FLOW SHIFTS FROM NE TO E,
WITH A LARGER ONSHORE COMPONENT. INLAND AREAS WILL STILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
AS THE SFC HIGH TO OUR N WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E, SHOULD SEE
GRADIENT FLOW, AT LEAST ON TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LYR PICK FROM THE
S. I THINK THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS TO CREEP
N ALONG THE COASTAL SLOWLY, WHICH WOULD MEAN A CHANGE TO RAIN
THERE. THE FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NH SHOULD
FZRA/PL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GOOD NEWS IS MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WARM SECTOR ALOFT ON SUNDAY, SO PRECIP
SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL AS ON AND OFF THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
HIGHS IN S NH AND ALONG THE COAST MAY PUSH INTO THE UPPER 30S
LATE IN THE DAY, BUT TO THE N WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.
A WEAK WAVE WILL HELP TO PUSH ANOTHER ROUND OF WAA THROUGH
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT TEMPS ARE NOT LIKELY
TO MOVE MUCH, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE SOME LIGHT FZRA OVERNIGHT
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND OUTSIDE OF S NH. FINALLY BY MONDAY
MORNING, STRONG SW FLOW WILL START TO MIX DOWN AS ANY THE CAD
BREAKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA, AND TEMPS SURGE INTO THE 50S, WITH
LOW 60S IN S NH. WILL BE IN THE SFC WARM SECTOR ACROSS ALL BUT
THE NE MTNS, AND A FEW BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE S
AREAS, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY, AND MAYBE EVEN SOME THUNDER IN S NH, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
HEATING THEY CAN GET. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING, TAPERING
TO SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY TURN BACK TO SHSN IN THE
MTNS BRIEFLY. LOW DROP TO THE UPPER 20S MTNS AND RANGE UP TO
NEAR 40 IN THE S.
IT CLEARS OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT, AND
SFC HIGH BUILD IN FROM THE N, WITH COOLER TEMPS TUE-WED, BUT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES WED NIGHT INTO THU.
IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE, GIVEN IT A 500 MB WAVE THAT TRACKS
THOUGH. COULD START AS A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA, BUT SHOULD GO OVER TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON THU, BEFORE
THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FRI LOOKS FAIR AN COOLER.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT AS SNOW, TRANSITIONING TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION PERSISTS, BUT
A BRIEF LULL SATURDAY NIGHT MAY HELP TO IMPROVE THINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO START SUNDAY WITH IFR,
AND MOST WILL BE STUCK THERE ALL DAY, WITH LIGHT FZRA/PL THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. MOSTLY RA AND COULD SEE KMHT/KPSM/KCON GO TO
MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR AT TIMES, BUT EVEN THESE TERMINALS ARE
LIKELY TO DROP TO IFR SUNDAY NIGHT. I THINK ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR, WITH SOME VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
COULD SEE MVFR/IFR MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS A LINE
OF SHRA THROUGH.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY, HOWEVER RAIN AND FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE WATERS.
LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS START TO INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FROM SSE, AND EVENTUALLY RAMP UP TO SCA LEVELS LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>028-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ001>006-
009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR NHZ007-008-011-
015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR NHZ010-
012>014.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...BARON
LONG TERM...CEMPA
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