920
FXUS61 KGYX 291401
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
TODAY BRINGING ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED
BY TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
955 AM...THIS UPDATE MOSTLY FOCUSES ON POPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, JUST SOME MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS, WITH THE HIGHER
POPS SHIFTING S TOWARD NH/MA BORDER, AND LOWER POPS, WITH MORE
SHOWERY CONDITIONS MOVING S THOUGH THE MTNS. OTHERWISE,
EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA BUT S NH SHOULD SEE A LIGHTER AND LESS
FREQUENT PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON;T MOVE MUCH, EXCEPT
IN THE S, WHERE THEY ARE LIKELY TO DROP A FEW DEGREES IN WET
BULB PROCESS WHEN PRECIP BECOMES MORE FREQUENT LATER.
700AM UPDATE...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF THIS MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR PRESENTATION. EXCELLENT SNOW BANDING UNDERWAY FROM
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO CASCO BAY AND THE MIDCOAST. THIS IS
LIKELY AT PEAK AT TIME OF WRITING, WITH INITIAL FORCING WANING
BACK ALONG THE NY/QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER. LOCAL ASOS STATIONS
HAVE BEEN REPORTING A CONSISTENT 1/2 TO 3/4 MILE VIS IN THIS
BANDING, WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE PRE-DAWN. TO THE SOUTH, SOME
REPORTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN HAVE BEGUN. IN SOUTHERN NH,
TEMPS THAT STARTED THE NIGHT IN THE MID TO LOWER 50S HAVE
FINALLY SETTLED IN THE MID 30S. WOULD EXPECT THE NEXT COUPLE
DEGREES TO BE A SLOG AS NE SFC FLOW SLOWLY KNOCKS THESE DOWN
TOWARDS FREEZING; OBS HAVE BEEN COMING IN COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. PRECIP SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF BREAKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA, BUT SHOULD SEE A TREND TOWARDS PERIODS
OF PRECIP AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH NOONTIME. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO A
CORRIDOR BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SOUTH WITH QPF, RESULTING IN MAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS
MORNING FROM THE WHITES TO ROUGHLY CASCO BAY.
COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO INFILTRATE AFTER A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY,
BUT LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE ALLOWED SNOW TO FALL AT
TEMPS AS HIGH AS 41 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. A LOT OF THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE OVERALL PROFILE, BUT A SOUTHWARD MOTION TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TODAY.
HAVE NOTED A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR,
MAINLY INTO SOUTHERN NH AS WELL AS WHERE CLOUD COVER WON'T BE
AS DENSE TOWARDS CENTRAL ME. VALUES HERE MAY WARM INTO THE MID
30S TODAY BEFORE COOLING THIS EVENING.
OTHER ATTENTION WAS PAID TO PRECIP CONTINUITY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIRES GUIDANCE HAS A ROUGH WINDOW BETWEEN 11AM AND 4PM THAT
PRECIP COULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY. THIS WOULD SLOW PRECIP
ACCUMULATION IN AREAS. HOWEVER, DO EXPECT THIS TO FILL BACK IN,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH, EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
STRATIFORM PRECIP RETURNS EARLY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
WEST TO EAST ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL INITIALLY
FOCUS IN SW NH THROUGH MIDNIGHT, WHERE THE MOST EFFICIENT PERIOD
OF ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT HOURS TYPICALLY RETURN
THE BEST ICE ACCRETION DUE TO NO SOLAR INSOLATION. IN ADDITION,
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS COULD HELP WICK AWAY LATENT HEAT RELEASE.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NH TO SEE SOME VALUES GREATER THAN THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF FLAT ICE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW TEMPERATURES TRULY TREND OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO HEADLINES IF NEEDED.
FOR SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY HAVE
SUCCESS IN LIFTING NORTH, DRAWING FORCING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CARRY A BAND OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION WITH WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO FEATURE A DEEPER PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT TO TRANSITION AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED SNOW SO FAR TO TRANSITION TO MIX/FREEZING
RAIN. LESS CONFIDENCE IS IN CONSISTENCY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY AFTER IT PASSES. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
STILL RELATIVELY SATURATED, BUT QPF DOES HAVE A IQR SPREAD OF UP
TO TWO TENTHS THROUGH SUN. THUS BEHIND THE INITIAL LIFT
NORTHWARD, PRECIP MAY BE MORE SHOWERY WITH BREAKS OR PERIODS OF
MORE STEADY PRECIP.
WARM AIR WILL MAKE PROGRESS AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THIS FRONT,
ALLOWING SOUTHERN AREAS TO SWITCH TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT AGAIN WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR A PERIOD OF BETTER ICE ACCRETION FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS AS THE WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER CAD
REINFORCED AIR. A QUARTER TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
POSSIBLE HERE, BUT PRECIP WILL TEND TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON. FOG WILL TEND TO DEVELOP AS TEMPS WARM AND
RAIN FALLS.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY, BEFORE
ADDITIONAL FORCING MOVES IN TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY
PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS WILL HAVE RECOVERED GREATLY,
INTO THE 50S, FOR ALL RAIN TO BE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING, TAPERING TO SHOWERS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY TURN BACK TO SHSN IN THE MTNS BRIEFLY. LOW
DROP TO THE UPPER 20S MTNS AND RANGE UP TO NEAR 40 IN THE S.
IT CLEARS OUT QUICKLY ON TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT, AND
SFC HIGH BUILD IN FROM THE N, WITH COOLER TEMPS TUE-WED, BUT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES WED NIGHT INTO THU.
IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE, GIVEN IT A 500 MB WAVE THAT TRACKS
THOUGH. COULD START AS A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA, BUT SHOULD GO OVER TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON THU, BEFORE
THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FRI LOOKS FAIR AN COOLER.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...A TREND TO IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SNOW, SLEET, AND
FREEZING RAIN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE
BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH, BUT COVERAGE WILL
AGAIN INCREASE FIRST FOR SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS, THEN MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ICING IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NH TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH SNOW AND SLEET NORTH OF
HERE. THIS SETUP WILL PUSH NORTH, WITH TERMINALS IN THE AREAS
ALL SEEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO RA ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...BELIEVE ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR, WITH
SOME VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT COULD SEE MVFR/IFR
MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS A LINE OF SHRA THROUGH.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY, HOWEVER RAIN AND FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT, BUT
ONLY TOWARDS THE OUTER REGION OF THE COASTAL ZONES.
LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS START TO INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FROM SSE, AND EVENTUALLY RAMP UP TO SCA LEVELS LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>028-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ001>006-
009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR NHZ007-008-011-
015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR NHZ010-
012>014.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...CEMPA/LEGRO
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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