577
FXUS61 KGYX 300758
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
358 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT TODAY BRINGING ACCUMULATING MIXED PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR AND HIGHER TERRAIN. A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM FEATURING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
THE NEXT WAVE OF MIXED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG DURATION
WINTER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING.
PRECIP IS MOSTLY FALLING AS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH A LITTLE SNOW ON THE NORTHERN MOST EDGE. PLAIN RAIN
IS FALLING ACROSS MOST OF FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, THE
SOUTHERN MERRIMACK VALLEY, AND THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY.
ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NEW HAMPSHIRE, HIGHLY LOCALIZED
FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. MANY LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEY FLOORS HAVE
BEEN SITTING AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT, BUT JUST A FEW
HUNDRED FEET OF ELEVATION GAIN TEMPS HAVE HELD BELOW FREEZING,
LEADING TO A STEADILY ACCRETING ICE OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS LATEST ROUND
OF PRECIP MOVES THROUGH.
THROUGH THE REST OF DAY, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY NUDGE
ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
TRANSITIONING PRECIP TO A LIGHT SHOWERY RAIN. FAR NORTHERN
AREAS HAVE LARGELY MISSED THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENT
SO FAR. A GRADUAL PROGRESSION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING
RAIN, AND EVENTUALLY TO RAIN BY TOMORROW IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS
THE STALLED FRONT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
WAVES OF PRECIP CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MIXED
PRECIP AND FREEZING RAIN PRIMARILY REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHILE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS
TEMPS GENERALLY HOLD BETWEEN 32-36 DEGREES. SOME LOWER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN, BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCRETE ANY NEW ICE IN AREAS
THAT NUDGE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY.
DURING THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
POISED TO SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 60S MAY VERY WELL
NUDGE INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS INTERIOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS HOLD IN THE UPPER 30S. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR THE FRONT TO TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA, AND WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DOES MOVES NORTHWARD. THESE SPRINGTIME
WARM FRONTS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR NOT MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS
MODELS SUGGEST, SO AT THIS POINT THE 60S IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE COME WITH A
HEALTHY DOSE OF SKEPTICISM. THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTH OF THE WHITES LIKELY STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO REACH THE
LOW 60S AS A DOWNSLOPE WIND DIRECTION HELPS MIX OUT EARLIER IN
THE DAY.
LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. EVEN WHERE THE
WARM FRONT DOESN'T MANAGE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY,
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE GOING INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND EASTERN AREAS
EARLY TUESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SOUTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING AS COOL, DRY ADVECTION SETS
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IN TYPICAL FASHION, MORE CLOUDS AND
UPSLOPE SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY LAST IN THE MOUNTAINS
LONGER. PARTLY- SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25-35 MPH AND UP TO 40 MPH ON OCCASION.
HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S, EXCEPT LIMITED TO THE 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS DIMINISH GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD REACH THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE
IN THE DAY WITH CLOUDS ALSO INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH STRONG ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT, BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WINDING DOWN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST FOR IT TO BE COLD ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS TO
SUPPORT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT EARLY ON, BUT A GRADUAL WARMING
WILL SWITCH MOST PLACES OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS WARMING OCCURS, THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BEFORE FULLY SWITCHING TO RAIN. FORTUNATELY, THIS WINDOW
LOOKS PRETTY BRIEF AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE IN
NATURE.
MORE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LAST INTO FRIDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT OTHERWISE THE WEEK ENDS ON A DRY NOT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY IFR TO LIFR CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. SNOW AND SLEET SPREAD ACROSS AUG AND RKD BEFORE
SWITCHING TO RAIN AT RKD THIS MORNING, AND FZRA AT AUG. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST OTHER TERMINALS BY MIDDAY. IFR TO
LIFR WITH SHOWERS AND FOG AT TIMES LIKELY LINGERS MOST OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS MAINE. LEB AND HIE, MOST LIKELY IMPROVE TO
MVFR FIRST ON MONDAY, WITH MHT, CON, AND PSM POSSIBLY IMPROVING
BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM...PRECIPITATION WILL END WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO VFR FOR MOST SITES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. BEFORE,
PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY NIGHT, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SWITCH
BACK OVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP.
MOSTLY VFR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT THE USUAL UPSLOPE FLOW
COULD PRODUCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS AT HIE, MAINLY
TUES. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, LIKELY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING BOTH SNOW AND RAIN TO THE AREA, AND POSSIBLY
A PERIOD OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN CROSS THE WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS THEN FRESHEN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A WARM FRONT, WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM... WINDS SHIFT TO NW/N MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT, AND THESE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAY TUESDAY, POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE,
WINDS QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP TO SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, AND THIS COULD AGAIN FEATURE
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TOWARD LATE WEEK...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>028-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ001>004-
006-009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ007-008-011-
015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ010-
012>014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...COMBS
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