870
FXUS61 KGYX 310709
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM FEATURING MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OF FREEZING AT THIS HOUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE,
AS LOW LEVEL COOL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHWESTERN AREAS
REMAIN THE ONLY SPOTS A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. WITH THIS
SET UP, POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK
BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO RISE. ONCE THE SUN DOES COME UP,
ANY LINGERING SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADS SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE
WITH THE SOLAR RADIATION.
WAVES OF PRECIP CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, WITH THE
LATEST ONE MOSTLY MOVING THROUGH BEFORE SUNRISE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LOOKS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE.
HOWEVER, THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT WILL BE DRY, AS PATCHY FOG AND
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL WAIT UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT, WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MAINE, AND THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BY THE
MID-AFTERNOON. IT'S NORTHWARD PROGRESS LIKELY STALLS FROM
THERE, WITH MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
LIMITING HIGHS TO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, HIGHS
WARM INTO THE 60S, WITH A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THE TWO
AIRMASSES ALONG THE FRONT.
MORE SHOWERS LIKELY BEGIN TO GENERATE AND ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SCATTERED POP UP SHOWERS LINGER AFTER THIS NEXT ROUND, AND THEN
ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HELPS TO BETTER ORGANIZE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE, WITH COASTAL AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE COASTLINE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT SOME SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER NEAR THE
COAST THROUGH SUNRISE WITH AN ANAFRONT SET UP.
DRIER AIR AND INCREASING SUNSHINE RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. UPSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS
NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE
MID 30. DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS, HIGHS GENERALLY WARM INTO THE
MID 40S TO NEAR 50. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
25-30 MPH LIKELY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WINDS WILL EASE GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO SETTLE IN, AND WITH CLEAR SKIES, IT LOOKS TO BE A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND EVEN SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER,
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET AT THIS POINT.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S, BUT THE SWITCH TO
ONSHORE FLOW COULD LIMIT SOME AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER
30S.
TODAY'S MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH IT'S STILL EARLY,
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY TO SEE ALL PRECIP TYPES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY FAVORS TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ENOUGH TO SWITCH OVER TO RAIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. SOME AREAS COULD HAVE SLICK TRAVEL FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE ON THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS, BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. PRECIP
BECOMES MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
AND THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 40S TO 50S IN WESTERN ME WITH 50S TO 60S IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS IT DOES SO, BUT AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY, BRINGING MOSTLY DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS, OTHER THAN SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
INCLUDING THE COAST AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO BE ABLE TO
DELAY THE SEABREEZE. SOUTHERN NH COULD SEE LOWER 60S.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE IN KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA A LITTLE
LONGER THAN HOW IT LOOKED YESTERDAY. SO SATURDAY MAY END UP
BEING DRY AFTER ALL WITH THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES COMING
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY, BUT THERE'S TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE ON THE LOW TRACK TO GET A FEEL FOR PRECIP TYPE(S) AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY TODAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING WITH
MOST TERMINALS SEEING IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES. MHT, CON,
LEB, HIE, AND PSM LIKELY SEE BREAKS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THEN IFR CONDITIONS RETURN THIS EVENING WITH MORE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. MOST TERMINALS
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING, EXCEPT AT HIE WHERE MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH UPSLOPE FLOW.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY/ THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE LIKELY BRINGS WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS START TO
IMPROVE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD FEATURE ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES
WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN THIS WILL
OCCUR. VFR RETURN THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY, WITH LOW- END GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH
SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH TOMORROW, AND NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS FRESHENING TO AROUND 25KT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...SEAS WILL PROBABLY STAY ABOVE SCA CRITERIA INTO THE
EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT, AND GALES APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THE
FRONT CROSSES LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022-028-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NHZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ151-153.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...COMBS
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