223
FXUS61 KGYX 010257
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1057 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM FEATURING MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
1100 PM UPDATE... WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUE TO
RUN THROUGH MIDNIGHT BASED ON LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS. WHILE
VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE IN MOST LOCATIONS BY THEN DUE TO THE
APPROACHING RAIN AND SOME ADDED MIXING, IT COULD LINGER A LITTLE
MORE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. ALSO, WENT AHEAD
AND INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
COAST AND COASTAL PLAIN AS MEASURABLE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH EVEN A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS PERHAPS. OTHERWISE,
JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
PREVIOUSLY...
700 PM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS THIS EVENING
TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT VISIBILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE OTHER THING TO WATCH
WILL BE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS
LATER TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH INVERTED PROFILES SHOULD KEEP ANY WIND
OFF THE DECK.
PREVIOUSLY...
OUR MULTI-WAVED TROUGH IS FINALLY EXITING TO THE NE LATE
TONIGHT, BUT WE HAVE TWO MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO GO, ONE
WILL BE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, AND ANOTHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT JUST BEFORE IT THE FROM EXITS THE CWA. SOME CONVECTIVE
CELLS POSSIBLE, AND MAYBE EVEN THUNDER OVER S NH, BUT STILL ONLY
A SMALL CHANCE. ANYPLACE THAT BROKE OUT OF THE FOG TODAY, WILL
SEE IT RETURN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT AWAY FROM THE
COAST IT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID NIGHT, ONCE THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH. TEMPS THROUGH THE EVENING ARE LIKELY TO NOT MOVE MUCH
AT ALL, AND IF THEY DO, THEY ARE LIKELY TO GO UP, IF WE CAN GET
MIXING FROM THE INCREASED S FLOW. BEHIND THE FRONT THEY WILL
DROP, AND MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE MTNS TO
AROUND 40 IN THE S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY MAY START OFF CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE MTNS, BUT SHOULD SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE BY LATE
MORNING. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP AS WELL AROUND
SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE CAA WILL LIKELY TAKE OVER IN THE AFTERNOON, AND HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE MTNS TO AROUND 50 IN S NH
AND THE SW COAST OF ME.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TUE EVENING, ALTHOUGH WILL STILL SEE NW FLOW
AND COLD AIR CONVECTION CONTINUE. LOW WILL BE CHILLY COMPARED
TO RECENT NIGHTS, AND RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE MTNS TO
THE MID 20S IN THE S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
03Z LONG TERM UPDATE... LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR OUR NEXT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES CURRENTLY
LOOK TO INITIALLY SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW AT THE START WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO QUICKLY WARM BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION, MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
PREVIOUSLY...
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS OUT OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT
THE HIGH TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT I DON'T EXPECT ANY PRECIP
DURING THE DAY DUE TO A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR, WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING NORTHERN AND WESTERN NH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIALLY,
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE A
WARM NOSE ALOFT MOVES IN AND LIKELY BRINGS IN A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY, I DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS, BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WILL BE SHORTER LIVED BEFORE PRECIP SWITCHES TO RAIN AT
SOME POINT OVERNIGHT. THE AREAS OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE FROM
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NH AND FROM THE FOOTHILLS NORTHWARD IN ME
WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND THE LOW-
LEVEL COLD AIR HANGING ON LONGER, POSSIBLY KEEPING SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE TO MAKE THINGS
SLICK. THESE AREAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO RAIN AT SOME
POINT AS THE LOW-LEVEL WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTHWARD, BUT TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. IN ADDITION TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW,
ACCUMULATING SLEET IS MORE OF A POSSIBILITY IN THESE AREAS WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCRETION.
THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN THE REST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS 60S IN NH AND 40S TO 50S
IN ME. THE FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
FEW SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD
OVERNIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 50S FOR MOST WHILE SW ME AND SOUTHERN NH WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
60S. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES START THE DAY, BUT THESE WILL DECREASE
NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN, EXCEPT UPSLOPING WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND MORE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES WITH A GROWING SIGNAL WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN TO DETERMINE IS
P-TYPE WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF BOTH. THERE'S ALSO
TIMING DIFFERENCES, SO IT'S POSSIBLE SATURDAY MAY BE DRY (ALTHOUGH
NBM STILL HAS 30-40% POP DUE TO UNCERTAINTY) WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES COMING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER
WAY, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT
MONDAY, BUT GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING AN
UPPER LOW LINGERING NEW HUDSON BAY, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL WAVES/SHOWERS.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...THE FOG HAS BEEN TOUGH TO BREAK TODAY, AND ANY
PLACE THAT MADE IT ABOVE IFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY GO BACK
THIS EVENING, WITH SOME LIFR EXPECTED AS WELL. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPROVE CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE MIDNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH COASTAL TERMINAL MAY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL SUNRISE. VFR IS
THEN EXPECTED TUE AND TUE NIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE, BUT THEY WILL SUBSIDE TUE
EVENING.
LONG TERM...VFR WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THEN BRINGS WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE. EXPECT A VARIETY OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY
A PERIOD OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN.
THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OF EACH TYPE, BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SITES WILL SEE A
LONGER PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR. MAINLY VFR
FRIDAY GOING INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY, WITH LOW- END GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH
SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH TOMORROW, AND NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS FRESHENING TO AROUND 25KT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
I’VE CONVERTED THE GALES TO SCA BECAUSE WE ARE NOT SEEING THE
MIXING OF THE S WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC TODAY. THE WINDS ALOFT DO
PICKUP, AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BETTER MIXING THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL. WILL SEE A BREAK IN SCA
CONDS TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THEN NW FLOW PICKS UP TUE AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AT SCA LEVELS.
LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY, BUT AN SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS STAYING ABOVE 5 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TO AT LEAST SCA
LEVELS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS UNCERTAIN.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ012>014-
018>028-033.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ004-006-
008>010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ153.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...COMBS/TUBBS
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